NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/16/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-16 22:31:21

We have some early main slates for MLK Jr. Day, with FD starting a seven game slate at 2:30PM EST while DK will start a five game main slate at 3PM EST. The Warriors are the only main slate team on a back-to-back and Klay Thompson has already been ruled out.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• For the two games only on FD’s main slate we have Ja Morant, Myles Turner, Landry Shamet, and John Konchar questionable. If Morant sits Tyus Jones will start and be a great play while Isaiah Jackson would likely start if Turner sits and would also be a top play for the price. If Shamet returns he could start right away at PG, otherwise Duane Washington should continue to start there while Konchar out would just give more minutes to Ziaire Williams and the other SG/SFs. (Update: Turner is IN, Morant is IN, Konchar is OUT, Shamet is IN)

• Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Taurean Prince are questionable for Minnesota, so we could be looking at huge usage bumps for Russell, McDaniels, and Anderson if both Edwards and Gobert are out. Austin Rivers would likely start if Edwards is out while Naz Reid would start for Gobert and be a top play. Prince’s minutes would be handled by Anderson and the other available forwards. (Update: Edwards, Gobert, and Prince are all IN)

• Lauri Markkanen is Q along with Rudy Gay so Vanderbilt would likely start again if Markkanen sits. (Update: Markkanen is OUT, Gay is IN)

• Fred VanVleet is questionable with lower back soreness, and if out I’d expect Barnes to move to PG and get a nice usage bump along with other regular four starters for TOR. Achiuwa, Hernangomez, or Koloko would likely join the starting lineup as well. (Update: VanVleet is IN)

• Clint Capela is questionable to return from his calf injury, and if available he’d likely be eased in a bit and split the center minutes with Okongwu making both hard to trust for big games. (Update: Capela is IN on a minutes limit off the bench)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo has been ruled out so this has big implications for FD’s main slate. Bobby Portis will likely start for him and has huge upside for under $7k while Jrue Holiday will have to carry a lot more of the offense and guys like Allen & Connaughton become much more appealing value plays.

• Klay Thompson is out on the b2b so look for Jordan Poole to start, and he is still a high upside play even at his inflated price tag and Curry back in the mix. Iguodala, Kuminga, J. Green, and Wiseman are all out too.

• Kyle Lowry remains out for Miami so Gabe Vincent should continue to start at PG and with b2b games over 45 FP he is a great option at his current salaries.

• Beal remains out for Washington so Corey Kispert should continue to start while Kuzma and Porzingis keep their higher usages and ceilings.

• Mathurin should continue to start for Haliburton, Connaughton should continue to start for Middleton, and Beasley should continue to start for Olynyk.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Gabe Vincent ($5,000) is the same price as last game in which he went for over 45 FP for the second straight game, and as the likely starter for Lowry who should see around 40 minutes again, he’s the first guy I’m locking in to my main lineup. Mikal Bridges ($6,800) is another guy who should see around 40 minutes with all the injuries around him, and his price only went up $100 after going for over 40 FP last game putting him squarely in play for cash games.

• The Pacers are all still a bit underpriced with Haliburton out, and even coming off a terrible 10.5 FP game I still like Buddy Hield ($6,700) as this team will go as he goes now that he’s the primary offensive weapon, and he has big upside at a great price. TJ McConnell ($5,900) has gone for over 36 FP in three straight games and remains my favorite PG to target for them over Nembhard, while Isaiah Jackson ($4,800) would be a great play at PF if Turner remains out.

• Scottie Barnes ($7,800) has turned it on of late going for over 48 FP in three of his last four games and his price only went up $100 from last game. If VanVleet ends up out I’d consider him a top play of the slate at that price and will still consider him for cash games even if FVV plays. Julius Randle ($9,800) saw a $100 price decrease after going for 68 FP and remains a top play of the slate in that same game against TOR.

• Walker Kessler ($5,800) is my favorite p/$ center right now, but I will change that to Naz Reid ($5,200) if Gobert ends up out. Tyus Jones ($5,900) will also becomes a must play at that price if Morant ends up out.

• With Giannis now out I will be looking to get Jrue Holiday ($8,000) and Bobby Portis ($6,900) in my main build and possibly Grayson ($4,600) or Pat Connaughton ($4,900) if I need more value.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Gabe Vincent ($5,200), Scottie Barnes ($7,300), and Walker Kessler ($5,100) remain my starting core for cash games, and I’d also include Gary Trent ($5,500) if FVV is out as he’s $1,400 cheaper than FD and would get a big usage bump. Naz Reid ($4,900) will also make the main core if Gobert ends up out.

• Precious Achiuwa ($3,300) is $1.1k cheaper than FD and has been a great value over his last three games, going for 6-7x value in each, and could even draw the start today if FVV sits. He’s been seeing increased minutes over his last four games and saw 27 minutes last game, and he should be able to pay off his salary regardless of the status of VanVleet today if you need an extreme value play.

• Naji Marshall ($5,700) continues to be underpriced given his 34+ minute starting role with Zion out, while DeAndre Hunter ($4,700) saw a $300 price drop and is at his cheapest salary in over a month and should be good for 5-7x value.

• Other solid plays for the price I’m considering for cash games include Jarrett Allen ($5,900), Evan Mobley ($6,300), Jordan Clarkson ($7,200), Draymond Green ($6,200), Kyle Anderson ($5,200), and Trey Murphy ($4,800).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn