NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/27/23
It’s a freaky Friday as we only have five games today compared to the usual 9+ we see to end the weeks. Only the Cavaliers are on a back-to-back, so look for their first injury report later, and for such a small slate we actually have quite a bit of injury news to follow today, as there’s currently six players with impact ratings of 8 or higher listed questionable in the situation room.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- The Pacers have three starters questionable in Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard, and Aaron Nesmith, but thankfully this is the first game of the night so we’ll know their statuses before lock. Isaiah Jackson would likely start at center if Turner is out, and I’d consider him a top value play of the slate especially for $3,200 on DK. Chris Duarte would likely start again if Nembhard sits, while Bennedict Mathurin would also see a nice boost in usage, while Nesmith sitting would give more minutes to Brissett and Smith with one potentially starting.
- Rudy Gobert is questionable with his groin soreness, and we know the drill by now with him as Naz Reid would likely start if he sits, while Russell and Edwards would have higher ceilings.
- Desmond Bane is questionable with knee soreness, and if out I’d expect Ziaire Williams to start at SF with Brooks moving to SG. This would also give a nice usage bump to Morant, Jackson, and Brooks as the top scoring options.
- In the last game of the night Andrew Wiggins is questionable with an illness, and if out I’d expect Jonathan Kuminga to start again as they are pretty set on Looney coming off the bench for now.
- The Bucks have Beauchamp and Green listed questionable but that news isn’t very DFS relevant as their minutes would just be handled by guys like Ingles, Carter, and Matthews off the bench.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Donovan Mitchell is doubtful today, so look for Caris LeVert to keep starting while Darius Garland remains a top play of the slate at his current salaries. Kevin Love is also still out while Ricky Rubio will sit for rest on the b2b.
- In their previous game Memphis started Brandon Clarke over Xavier Tillman, so we’re projecting that again today although it won’t be a shock if they go back to Tillman. Whoever starts between them would be the safer play for more minutes and my preferred option to use in cash games.
- Lu Dort is out for OKC, so it’s anyone’s guess what their starting lineup looks like tonight outside of SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams. We’ll see who draws the shortest straw pre-game and gets the center start between Kenrich Williams, Mike Muscala, and Jaylin Williams, while Aaron Wiggins seems like a good candidate to start for Dort.
- Until they announce anything or actually make the change, I’d expect Pat Connaughton to continue to start for the Bucks with Middleton off the bench.
- Jonathan Isaac will sit the front of the Magic’s b2b tmrw so Bol, the Wagners, and the other forwards will absorb his minutes today.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Mitchell likely out today I don’t see any reason to not use Darius Garland ($8,500) and Caris LeVert ($5,400) in cash games as both are still way too cheap in a projected close game with OKC.
- MEM/MIN is a game we want exposure to in our main builds, as it’s one of the highest projected totals of the slate with just a three point spread, and we could be looking at some nice usage bumps for starters if Bane or Gobert sit. Kyle Anderson ($6,400) only went up $200 after a solid bounce back game of 32 FP, so he’s in play especially if Gobert sits, while DAngelo Russell ($7,000) finally hit $7k but is still cheap enough for someone who should see 37+ minutes and has 45+ FP upside. For MEM I like spending up for Ja Morant ($10,200) especially if Bane sits, while Dillon Brooks ($5,400) remains at a great price and is in play for cash games regardless of Bane’s status. Whoever starts between Tillman ($4,800) and Clarke ($5,600) will also be in play although I prefer their cheaper salaries on DK.
- Josh Giddey ($7,900) remains underpriced, especially with the usage bump he’ll get with Dort out, and I’m expecting 40+ FP out of him today in a projected tight game with CLE. Make sure to check out the No House Advantage bonus offer currently running, and I like betting the over on Giddey’s points line of 17.5 there today. Jalen Williams ($5,900) is also a more appealing play with no Dort, especially after only going up $100 in salary coming off a 44 FP game in 37 minutes. If Aaron Wiggins ($4,100) does start at SF I think we can consider him a top value play, but it is OKC so there is always risk they just split Dort’s time evenly with all their backup guards & forwards.
- We’ll see how the Pacers news breaks, but keep Isaiah Jackson ($5,000) on your radar if Turner sits, Chris Duarte ($5,100) if Nembhard sits, and possibly Oshae Brissett ($3,900) for extreme value if Nesmith sits and he starts. TJ McConnell ($7,400) is finally priced up and more of a GPP play for me at that salary, while Buddy Hield ($6,800) only went up $300 from last game and remains a solid play in all formats with three straight games over 36 FP.
Looking at DraftKings:
- The salaries are much looser on DK compared to FD, as we have some great value plays already even before we get news on the questionable players. If Aaron Wiggins ($3,100) does start for Dort he will be very hard to fade at pretty much minimum salary, along with Brandon Clarke ($4,900) or Xavier Tillman ($3,600) depending on who starts. Pat Connaughton ($4,100) is also $1,200 cheaper than FD, and coming off a 44.5 FP performance last game he should continue to start with Middleton off the bench, and for that salary I’d be happy if he goes for anything over 20 FP which is a very likely floor.
- Evan Mobley ($6,800) is $500 cheaper than FD and remains a high-upside play, while Jarrett Allen ($6,000) is a whopping $1,700 cheaper than FD after his price dropped $500 overnight, making him one of my favorite p/$ plays of the slate on DK. Darius Garland ($8,300) and Caris LeVert ($5,200) remain cash game locks with Mitchell likely out.
- Buddy Hield ($6,100) went down $100 in price from last game, and with 39.5, 46.75, and 42.5 FPs in his last three games I think he remains a steal for that salary. TJ McConnell ($6,500) went up $500 but is still at a great price compared to FD and would be a top target if Nembhard sits, while Chris Duarte ($4,200) and Isaiah Jackson ($3,20) would be top value plays of the slate if either draw the start for Nembhard or Turner.
- Dillon Brooks ($4,600) went down $200 in salary from last game so I will likely use him in my main build regardless of Bane’s status, while DAngelo Russell ($6,700), Kyle Anderson ($5,500), and Jaden McDaniels ($4,500) are my favorite p/$ plays from MIN.
- Josh Giddey ($7,800) and Jalen Williams ($5,400) remain at great prices and I’ll likely use at least one in my cash game lineup, and a couple other guys I’m really liking for the price today are Wendell Carter ($6,000) and Draymond Green ($6,200), who both saw reductions in salary from their previous game.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn