NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/31/23
Just five games today to close out January, with the Lakers being the only team on a back-to-back so look for their first injury report later today. LeBron James will play after sitting last game with “significant foot soreness”, and Anthony Davis was rested yesterday on the front end of the b2b and will be good to go today and may even start. There’s a two hour gap between the 4th and 5th games’ tip-offs, and Jamal Murray is questionable in that final game, so be prepared to swap off of him and possibly to some other Nuggets value if we don’t get that news until after lock time.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jamal Murray is questionable in the final game of the night, and if he is ruled out I’d expect Bruce Brown to start at PG and be a great value play, with Bones Hyland seeing a bump in minutes and usage as his top backup.
- The Clippers have Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, and Robert Covington all questionable today, so we could see Luke Kennard or Nicolas Batum start if Morris sits, while Mann would be a more appealing play if Jackson sits, and Covington’s minutes would just be handled by all the forwards if he remains out. Overall I’m not looking to use any fringe LAC players when George and Leonard are both active which is the case today.
- Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent were questionable heading in to today but now both are available to play.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Not much lineup news at the moment as pretty much every team should have their usual starting lineups today before we learn the status of the questionable players. The biggest unknown is who starts for the Lakers as they could opt to continue bringing AD off the bench and start Bryant, or they could start AD today as he’s fully rested and the other Lakers had to play yesterday. Patrick Beverley will be out today so Lonnie Walker or Max Christie will likely start at SG.
- Pat Connaughton should continue to start for MIL until we hear Middleton will get his starting spot back, and Brandon Ingram will be back for the Pelicans after resting last game, so Marshall goes back to the bench.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- There were some big time price drops on FanDuel, making a few guys stand out as close to must plays at the discount we’re getting them at today. Julius Randle ($9,400) is the first guy I’m locking in to cash games as he’s at his cheapest salary in over a month, and draws a nice revenge game matchup with the Lakers in a projected pretty high scoring game with a close spread. Randle is seeing huge minutes and has been below 43 FP just once in his last ten games, and on three days rest facing a Lakers team on a b2b, he just has too many factors in his favor today and is too cheap for the 55+ FP upside he has today. Jalen Brunson ($7,500) is also at his cheapest price in almost a month and is a great way to get more Knicks exposure without spending much salary.
- LaMelo Ball ($8,000) has been mediocre since returning from his last ankle injury with a couple games around 35 FP, and that has lowered his price $800 from last game making him one of the best values of the slate for someone with his upside. He hasn’t been under $8,500 since mid-December, and with a couple games under his belt since returning from injury and a couple more days of rest since last game, Ball is just way too cheap playing in the highest projected game total of the slate.
- Zach LaVine ($7,200) dropped $600 in price from last game, and is at his lowest salary in over a month which doesn’t really make sense as he’s gone for 35+ FP in ten of his last eleven games. I’m expecting most cash game lineups to have him today especially with his SG/SF eligibility, so fade him at this price at your own risk as he has easy 40+ FP upside in a projected close game with LAC, and his salary does not matchup that upside.
- If you’re not spending up for Jokic or other expensive centers today, Brook Lopez ($6,200) is a great target as he draws one of the best matchups in the league for big men against Charlotte, and should have a 5x value floor today as he’s been averaging around 30 FPPG over his last four games in worse matchups. The Bucks have the highest projected total of the slate, so after Giannis I like Lopez as the next best p/$ play to get more exposure to that offense today. Check out the site https://nohouseadvantage.com where I like betting the OVER on his 6.5 rebounds line today, and make sure to use RG’s No House Advantage promo code when you first sign up.
- If you need some extreme value then I’d look at Trey Murphy ($4,400), as he dropped $500 in salary from last game and is the cheapest he’s been since November. Even with Ingram back in the mix Murphy should see 30+ minutes and has a great shot at 5-7x value while helping you fit in other expensive guys.
- I also have to mention Russell Westbrook ($6,700) as he dropped $800 in salary overnight, and even with LBJ and AD available for the Lakers he’s at a price point that keeps him in play for cash games or at least as a high-upside GPP target.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Julius Randle ($10,100) and Jalen Brunson ($7,900) saw very minor price drops on DK so I still prefer both on FD for the price, but I’d still be looking to use at least one of them on DK as the matchup with the Lakers on a b2b is just too good to not have some exposure to the high upside Knicks guys.
- LaMelo Ball ($9,500) saw a slight price decrease but is still a bit too expensive to consider him a “must-play” like he is for me on FD, while Zach LaVine ($8,100) saw a $400 salary dip and is definitely in play for cash games at his cheapest DK price in almost three weeks.
- Brook Lopez ($6,000) remains one of my favorite p/$ center options today, and if you want to go super cheap at C then consider Mark Williams ($3,400) as he should see 15-20 minutes off the bench, and usually goes for 6x+ value when given that range of minutes.
- Like FD, Trey Murphy ($4,700) is at one of his cheapest salaries of the season on DK and is a solid SG/SF target, while Pat Connaughton ($4,500) remains too cheap for a starter with 30+ FP upside on the highest projected scoring offense of the slate.
- Lastly I want to mention Kyle Lowry ($4,700) who is back at his lowest price of the season, and for a starting PG likely to see around 30 minutes he is a fine cheap target today with 5-7x value upside.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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