NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/10/23
Just six games to end the week, and only the Nets are on a back-to-back after sitting or limiting minutes for all their starters yesterday, but keep an eye out for their first injury report later in case there’s any new additions to Ben Simmons. It’s shaping up to be one of the quietest injury news days in a long time, as a lot of the same names remain out, while Darius Garland & Anfernee Simons are the only DFS relevant questionable tags currently.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Darius Garland is questionable with a quad contusion, and if out I’d expect either Ricky Rubio or Raul Neto to start at PG. With Garland off the floor this season Donovan Mitchell sees a 4.5% usage bump and scores an additional .12 FPPM, so he would be in cash game consideration with a much higher ceiling if Garland sits. I’d also be more interested in Caris LeVert as a cash game value option as he sees a 2.6% usage bump and scores an additional .07 FPPM with no Garland.
- Anfernee Simons is questionable to return from his ankle sprain that’s kept him out the last five games, and if he does then either Cam Reddish or Matisse Thybulle will head to the bench, and neither would be on my DFS radar today. Damian Lillard sees about a 2.5% drop in usage with Simons on the floor this year and scores .13 less FPPM, so if Simons remains out then Lillard would have a much higher ceiling and Cam Reddish would remain in play for value as a starter.
- Vlatko Cancar is the only other questionable player currently, and if out his minutes would be handled by Brown and Green mostly.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Spurs are the healthiest they’ve been in a long time with only Khem Birch listed out, so with crowded rotations now along with them being 12 point home underdogs to Denver, I probably won’t be targeting any of them in cash games today. Devin Vassell or Malaki Branham starting at SG is their only question mark as far for starters today.
- The Nets should have everyone available today outside of Simmons, but make sure to check their first injury report just in case any of the “injuries” that people were listed as having yesterday weren’t really just “rest”.
- DAngelo Russell is probable to return from his ankle injury, so Schroder will go back to the bench, and neither he or Russell will be on my DFS radar today. Mo Bamba is out indefinitely with an ankle sprain, so Hachimura and Gabriel will be the top bench bigs for awhile.
- Kyle Lowry remains out so Vincent should continue to start, while Jaylen Nowell remains out for Minnesota so McLaughlin and Alexander-Walker will continue to get his minutes.
- The Wizards could stick with Delon Wright as their starting PG or go back to Monte Morris, who came off the bench last game after returning from his six game absence for a back injury.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- If Delon Wright ($5,600) stays in the starting lineup then I’d consider him a top cash game value today, as his price went down $200 from last game, and he draws the same matchup with Atlanta in which he put up 26.3 FP while only attempting four field goals, so his ability to rack up rebs/asts/stls give him a solid floor, and if he can make a couple threes or a few more field goals he has easy 30+ FP upside which he has produced in three of his last five games.
- Tyrese Maxey ($6,600) also remains underpriced at the PG/SG position, as he only went up $200 in price after going for over 42 FP last game (without Harden), which brought his streak of 30+ FP games to five. Maxey only needs to go for around 33 FP to hit 5x value, and Philadelphia currently has the second highest team total of the slate, so Maxey is my favorite way to get cheaper exposure to them today, and he’ll help you fit in either Harden or Embiid if you want more exposure to them.
- Mike Conley ($5,500) dropped $300 in salary from last game, and is at his lowest price in almost two months, so for a guy who’s gone under 24.7 FP just once in his last five games, along with Nowell remaining out for less guard competition behind him, Conley should be a solid 5x+ value guy today which is looking hard to come by on FanDuel for guys under $6k this slate.
- The only other cheap value I’m considering for cash games currently is Cam Reddish ($5,400) if Simons remains out, DeAndre Hunter ($5,300), Cameron Johnson ($5,800), and Troy Brown ($5,000).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Troy Brown ($4,400) is currently my favorite p/$ play for under $5k on DK today, as he should see 30+ minutes and he’s gone for over 5.8x value in four straight games. The only other guys I’d consider for cash games in his price range are Caris LeVert ($4,200), Jaden McDaniels ($4,700), Austin Reaves ($4,700), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,500).
- In the $5-$6k price range I’m liking Cameron Johnson ($6,000), Tobias Harris ($5,900), Kyle Anderson ($5,800), Mike Conley ($5,700), Michael Porter ($5,700), Delon Wright ($5,400), DeAndre Hunter ($5,000).
- I said earlier that I likely won’t be on any Spurs players today, but Devin Vassell ($5,600) and Jeremy Sochan ($5,500) could be exceptions as they both come at $800-$900 discounts to FD, and have the best chance to go for over 5x value especially if Vassell remains a starter.
- I want to mention Bradley Beal ($8,400) as I’d consider him a value at that price today, as he’s gone for over 5.5x value in five of his last six games, include two games in that stretch against Atlanta who he plays again today. Check out our No House Advantage bonus code for new signups, where I like betting the over 24.5 points line for Beal there today.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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