NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/15/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-15 23:34:59

Seven games on today’s slate, with the Lakers, Spurs, and Cavs on back-to-backs so look for their first injury reports later. Anthony Davis has already been ruled out so the Lakers have a ton of usage available today in a great matchup with Houston, Donovan Mitchell will be back after resting yesterday although Jarrett Allen is likely still out until we hear otherwise, and the Spurs are pretty up in the air as far as who will be available as Jones and Keldon could return, while Branham could still be out and Bassey is now out indefinitely, and Vassell and Sochan are strong candidates to sit for rest on the b2b. The Mavs are also a crucial team as far as injury news goes today as they play the Spurs and are already without Doncic, while three of their top scorers are questionable in Irving, Hardaway, and Wood, so guys like Josh Green and Jaden Hardy could jump to the top of the p/$ projections if Irving and/or any of the other two sit.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, and Austin Rivers are all questionable for Minnesota, with the status of the first two being far more important than Rivers whose minutes would just be handled by Alexander-Walker and McLaughlin if out. If Gobert sits and Naz plays he’d likely start and be a top value play especially for $4,400 on DK, and if both bigs end up out I’d expect Luka Garza to draw the start with Nathan Knight backing him up. If all three Q players end up out, Anthony Edwards would get a 9.3% usage bump and easily be my top overall play of the slate at his currently salaries. (Update: Gobert and Reid are IN, Rivers is OUT)

• Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway, and Christian Wood are questionable for Dallas, so we’d almost certainly see Jaden Hardy start if either Irving or Hardaway sit, while Josh Green is already a starter but would be a much better play if either of the first two Q guys sit. Wood sitting would give more minutes to Bullock, Powell, Kleber, and Bertans. With all three Q guys off the floor this year along with the already ruled out Doncic, Josh Green scores an additional .32 FPPM and Jaden Hardy leads the team with a 30.5% usage rate. (Update: Kyrie is OUT, Hardaway is OUT, Wood is IN)

• Alperen Sengun is questionable for Houston after sitting last game, and if out we’d likely see Tari Eason join the starting lineup again with Jabari Smith moving to center. Eason saw 35 minutes last game as a starter and would be a top value play at his current salaries if Sengun sits, while all the other starters would have higher floors and ceilings and would be solid options for cash games depending on your salary and positional needs. (Update: Sengun is IN)

• Malaki Branham is questionable for the Spurs, while Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson are off the injury report and good to go, but Collins, Vassell, and Sochan will all sit for rest. If Branham is unable to go, then Tre Jones would almost certainly start with Graham in the backcourt and both would be strong plays with only Langford and Wesley for guard depth behind them. (Update: Branham is IN, Bates-Diop is OUT)

• Kyle Lowry is questionable for the Heat, and if out his minutes would be handled by Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo. (Update: Lowry is IN)

• Jalen McDaniels is questionable for Philly, and if out his minutes would be handled by Georges Niang and Danuel House. (Update: McDaniels is OUT)

• Alex Caruso is now questionable with an illness, and if out they could go with Coby White at SG, or move LaVine and DeRozan to SG/SF and go with Patrick Williams as a starter. (Update: Caruso is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Until we get the Cavs first injury report I’d expect Jarrett Allen to remain out with his eye injury, so look for Lamar Stevens to continue to start at PF with Mobley at center, and Ricky Rubio could sit for rest on the b2b so more minutes for LeVert and Neto. (Update: Allen is OUT, Rubio likely won’t play)

• With Anthony Davis out I’d expect Rui Hachimura to draw the start, as Mo Bamba started the last time Davis sat but Bamba is also out this time around, so they’re down to Hachimura, Vanderbilt, and Gabriel as available players to handle center minutes. DAngelo Russell is now the top scoring option for them and has a 50+ FP ceiling in a pace up matchup with Houston, while the other four starters alongside him will all be in play for value depending on your positional needs.

• The Mavs are without Doncic and likely without Kyrie, so look for Jaden Hardy to start at PG, while Tim Hardaway should start if available, otherwise I’d expect Justin Holiday to take his spot in the starting lineup.

• The Spurs will be without Collins, Vassell, and Sochan today, but will get back Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson, with Keldon the only definite starter of the two as Tre has been coming off the bench lately. Sandro Mamukelashvili will likely start at center and be one of the best value plays of the slate as the Spurs are super thin at center now with Bassey also out, while Bates-Diop will almost certainly start for Sochan, and either Branham or Tre will likely start in the backcourt with Graham.

• Andrew Wiggins remains out for the Warriors so DiVincenzo should continue to start for him, while Kuminga is on track to return after sitting the last three games, but Iguodala will be out with wrist soreness. Their opponents LAC remain without Norman Powell.

• Robert Williams, Payton Pritchard, and Jaylen Nowell remain out in the BOS/MIN game, while the same guys remain out for Memphis and Miami as last game (pending Lowry news). Trey Lyles will serve a 1-game suspension tonight, so look for Edwards and Metu to handle his minutes.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Bam Adebayo ($7,900) is standing out to me as he is at his lowest salary since early November after dropping $500 since last game, and the price drop is definitely justifiable as he’s scored over 40 FP just twice in his last eleven games, and the additional of Love hasn’t exactly raised his output. Adebayo is still seeing 36+ MPG, and at this reduced price 35-40 FP would be a solid p/$ score for him, so depending on how other news breaks today I’m strongly considering him in my main build in a projected close game with Memphis.

• Evan Mobley ($8,000) dropped $200 in price overnight after going for over 42 FP yesterday, so if Allen remains out he’s going to be really hard to fade in cash games at that price, even in a tougher matchup with Philly. Lamar Stevens ($4,400) would also remain in play for value if Allen is out, as he’d likely remain a starter and have a strong chance at 5x value.

• The Lakers are going to be a popular team for cash games today with LeBron and AD both out, so choosing which value plays to go with will depend on who starts for AD, along with which positions have other better value options. DAngelo Russell ($8,200) only went up $100 from last game after going for 36+ FP in his third straight game, and now he’ll have to carry a lot more offense and should have a 40+ FP floor making him a top play of the slate, while Malik Beasley ($4,900) is my next favorite Laker to target as his price went down $400 after going for 35.9 FP yesterday. Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,500), Troy Brown ($4,800), and Rui Hachimura ($4,700) are all pretty similar to me as far as range of FP outcomes, but if Hachimura does end up starting I think he’d be my favorite p/$ play from that group.

• With Collins, Sochan, and Bassey out for the Spurs, Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,900) becomes my favorite value play of the slate as he’ll almost certainly start at center today and could be looking at huge minutes unless they really give Dieng 15-20 minutes, but either way Sandro should crush that salary and is a risky fade in cash games. Devonte Graham ($5,700) is my next favorite Spurs player to target as they are without Vassell and possibly Branham, so he should be looking at solid minutes as a starter and is still too cheap, and Keita Bates-Diop ($5,100) is another very strong value option for them with Sochan out.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Evan Mobley ($8,100) and Lamar Stevens ($3,400) remain excellent plays with Allen still out, and Darius Garland ($7,600) actually dropped $300 overnight and is at his lowest price in two months, so consider him for cash games at this discount as he’ll likely be over $8k sooner rather than later.

• DAngelo Russell ($7,700) and Malik Beasley ($5,200) remain my favorite Lakers for cash games, while Troy Brown ($4,600) and Rui Hachimura ($4,500) are looking like very strong value plays at those prices. Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,900) will get a usage and minutes bump today, but his price went up $800 from last game and he’ll need 30+ FP to be worth that price, so he’s more of a GPP play for me on DK. Check out our No House Advantage promo offer for new signups, where I like betting the over 25.5 points line for Russell today.

• The Rockets starters all come at discounts to FD, especially Jabari Smith ($6,800) who is $600 cheaper, and with three straight games of 43+ FP he is still a value at that price on DK, especially if Sengun ends up out. KJ Martin ($5,200) and Tari Eason ($5,300) would both be top value options as well if Sengun sits.

• Devonte Graham ($5,300) and Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,100) remain my favorite Spurs to target in cash games, while Keita Bates-Diop ($5,000) and Doug McDermott ($3,600) are fine options if you need more value as both should easily see 25+ minutes at great prices.

• Keep Josh Green ($5,700) and Jaden Hardy ($5,500) on your cash game radar as both would be top plays if Irving remains out, and if Hardaway also ends up out both would be elite plays at those prices.

• It’s also worth mentioning that SAC/CHI has some great options as the highest projected total of the slate, with guys like DeAaron Fox ($8,900), Zach LaVine ($8,600), DeMar DeRozan ($8,300), and Nikola Vucevic ($8,200) all in play at very reasonable prices considering the game environment today.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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