NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/17/23
We’re ending the week with a solid eight-game slate, and no teams are on a back-to-back, so we have all the initial injury reports. The Mavericks and Timberwolves will be important teams to monitor for news as they each have multiple questionable players, and GSW/ATL is jumping out as the top game to target today as it’s sitting at a whopping 248 total with just a 4.5-point spread, while only one other game is currently projected above 230. Stephen Curry is officially listed questionable, but Coach Kerr said yesterday that he expects him to play, so I’d treat him closer to probable, especially with that projected total and close spread against ATL.
This daily weekday NBA article can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses, so knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jayson Tatum is questionable with a left hip contusion. If out, I’d expect Grant Williams to start at PF, and guys like Griffin, Hauser, and Kornet would all see bumps in minutes. Jaylen Brown would be a top play of the slate as he sees a 4.5% usage bump and scores an additional .12 FPPM with Tatum (plus R. Williams and Pritchard) off the floor this season, while Marcus Smart sees the next biggest usage bump of 4.4%. Smart is now questionable with an illness, and if out I’d consider Derrick White a top play getting a bump in usage and minutes at PG. (Update: Tatum is IN)
- Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid are questionable for Minnesota, so Reid would start at center if Gobert sits and he’s active, while Luka Garza would likely start if both Gobert and Reid end up out, and Nathan Knight would be his top backup. Anthony Edwards would also have a higher ceiling with no Gobert as he sees a 3.2% usage bump with him off the floor.
- Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway Jr. are questionable for Dallas, so if either sits look for Jaden Hardy to continue to start, and if both sit they could go with Maxi Kleber at PF again with Hardy at PG. Josh Green continues to get huge minutes with Doncic/Irving off the floor so he would be a top play if Irving remains out, and Christian Wood finally had a ceiling game with 47+ FP in 28 minutes last game. He’d be a high upside play again if all the questionable Mavericks are out. This includes JaVale McGee and Markieff Morris who are also questionable, as their big man depth would down to Powell, Wood, Kleber, and Bertans if they both sit. (Update: Hardaway is IN)
- Jerami Grant is questionable for Portland after sitting last game with a quad contusion, and if he remains out look for Trendon Watford to start again and be a very strong value play after going for over 30 FP in 40 minutes last game as a starter. Matisse Thybulle would also be a more appealing value play as he had one of his best games of the season with Grant out last game, going for around 40 FP, and he remains super cheap on both sites.
- Alex Caruso is questionable for the Bulls, so we’d likely see Ayo Dosunmu start in the backcourt with Beverley again if he’s out, and Coby White would see a bump in minutes and be an interesting value play after going for around 30 FP in 28 minutes last game with Caruso out. (Update: Caruso is IN)
- Keita Bates-Diop is questionable for the Spurs with the achilles soreness that kept him out last game. If he remains out, it would mean more minutes for Johnson, Sochan, McDermott, and possibly Barlow. (Update: KBD is IN)
- Jalen McDaniels is questionable for Philly, and if out guys like Tucker, Harris, and Niang would all absorb his time. (Update: McDaniels is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Draymond Green received his 16th technical foul last game, so he will be suspended for today’s game which should give Jonathan Kuminga the start at PF. With Wiggins still out for personal reasons and Iguodala now out with a broken wrist, Kuminga should be a strong option, especially for $4.4k on DK.
- Jarrett Allen remains out, so Lamar Stevens should continue to start at PF with Evan Mobley at center, and Mobley remains a top play at his current salaries on both sites.
- Devonte Graham and Romeo Langford are out for the Spurs today, which makes Tre Jones a more appealing play with less guard depth behind him. Jones saw his most minutes (32) last game in a month, so he should have a pretty safe 30+ minute floor now. Plus, he has some extra motivation going against his brother Tyus today. Doug McDermott is now doubtful and likely out, so Dominick Barlow should be looking at solid bench minutes now especially if KBD ends up out too.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I have to start with Evan Mobley ($8,000) as FD is just unwilling to price him properly with Allen out, as he’s the same salary as last game in which he put up 42.9 FP in 39 minutes in a tough matchup with Philly, and today he gets an easier matchup with Washington. His PF/C eligibility makes him extremely easy to fit in lineups too, and I’d expect most cash game lineups to have him today, so fade him at your own risk at this low price.
- Donte DiVincenzo ($5,700) is at his lowest salary in almost three weeks, and with Draymond now out today along with Wiggins still, he will have an even bigger role on offense in a great matchup with ATL that we absolutely want to target in cash games with its almost 250 projected total. I also really like the price of Klay Thompson ($7,500) who has a huge ceiling in this game environment and the increased usage with Draymond out.
- MEM/SAS has the 2nd highest projected total of the slate, and Desmond Bane ($8,400) remains the Grizzlies highest-upside player while remaining at a salary that is just a bit too cheap for such a great matchup with San Antonio. Xavier Tillman ($5,400) dropped $400 in price from last game and is a very strong value target, while Tyus Jones ($6,700) also dropped $400 after a couple down games in tougher matchups, but today’s matchup against his brother and the Spurs is the perfect spot for him to have another ceiling game.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Desmond Bane ($7,400) inexplicably dropped $600 from last game, and given the matchup with the Spurs and Morant still out, I can’t see fading him at this price in cash games. Xavier Tillman ($5,200) remains a great value option after dropping $400 in salary, and Jaren Jackson ($7,300) dropped $500 in price and is now $1,200 cheaper than FD making him a fantastic p/$ play on DK today. Check out our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, and I like betting the over 24.5 points line for Bane there today.
- Evan Mobley ($7,600) dropped $500 in price on DK. I’d consider him pretty much a must-play like Bane at this reduced salary, given their ceilings, while Darius Garland ($7,400) is at his lowest price since November. He has a high ceiling against Washington at a great price.
- Klay Thompson ($7,100), Donte DiVincenzo ($5,500) and Jonathan Kuminga ($4,400) remain my favorite p/$ targets from the Warriors. I can’t fault anyone for using all three in their main build at such low salaries, while Tre Jones ($5,100) and Jeremy Sochan ($5,600) both come at big discounts to FD and are more strong value options today.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA Twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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