NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/8/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-08 23:19:11

Today is looking just a bit less crazier than yesterday as there’s only a few important questionable guys currently, but we’re still waiting on the first injury reports for the Thunder, Mavericks, and Wizards who are on back-to-backs. OKC has already ruled out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for rest and Jalen Williams with his wrist injury, while Portland could get back Jusuf Nurkic who is questionable with his calf injury that’s kept him out the last fourteen games.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Monte Morris can be considered questionable with his back injury, and if he returns it would make Delon Wright a much less appealing play. If Morris remains out then Wright should continue to start and be a very strong value play on both sites. (Update: Morris is IN)

• Jusuf Nurkic is questionable to return from his calf strain, and if he does then it would take Drew Eubanks out of DFS consideration and would hurt the upside of guys like Thybulle and Grant. If Nurkic remains out then Eubanks is in play for value and the other Portland starters maintain the usage and ceilings they’ve shown the last few games. (Update: Nurkic is IN)

• Reggie Bullock can be considered questionable with a quad contusion that forced him to leave yesterday’s game early, and if out I’d expect either Tim Hardaway or Justin Holiday to join the starting lineup. (Update: Bullock is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• With SGA and Jalen Williams out for OKC, look for Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to start, as Joe had been starting for SGA earlier and Wiggins started for Jalen yesterday. They could opt for a bit more size against Durant/Ayton and start Dario Saric, which would put him in play as a decent value option.

• Josh Richardson is back from a personal matter that cost him two games, so I’d expect him to get his starting SG spot back which moves Trey Murphy back to the bench.

• Anfernee Simons remains out for Portland so Cam Reddish should continue to start, and the Celtics are only without Robert Williams so Al Horford should start at center with Derrick White remaining a starter at SG.

• Kyle Lowry is still out for Miami so Gabe Vincent should continue to start at PG.

• Maxi Kleber & JaVale McGee are out for Dallas so Powell, Wood, Morris, and Bertans will absorb their minutes, while Reggie Bullock is doubtful so either Justin Holiday or Tim Hardaway should join the starting lineup today.

• Delon Wright will continue to start even though Monte Morris is available.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• With the available Thunder today, Dario Saric ($4,000) actually leads the team in usage at 27.9%, while Josh Giddey ($8,400) and Jaylin Williams ($4,800) score the most FPPM at 1.33 and 1.35 respectively. Giddey is the clear highest upside play for OKC and with four straight games of 45+ FP he has a great shot to continue that streak today at a very reasonable price. If Saric does draw the start he would be a very strong value play at that price, while William’s minutes have been all over the place along with his FP output, so he is still a risky play even with the slight bump in usage he’ll see today. Isaiah Joe ($4,400) is projecting well from a p/$ standpoint right now but remains a pretty low upside play that could go over-owned, while Lu Dort ($6,200) should be a solid play at that price and he does see a 2.3% usage bump with all the OKC guys out today.

• Cam Reddish ($5,600) remains a top value play as he’s gone for over 30 FP in three straight games and his price only went up $100 from last game. His minutes have increased every game over his last four which peaked at 40 minutes last game, so his combo of big minutes/low price/recent production is just too solid to fade for me in cash games. Jerami Grant ($7,800) is also seeing huge minutes and has gone for 38+ FP in four straight games, so he remains a strong SF/PF target for the price, but I would be a little more hesitant to use him in cash games if Nurkic plays.

• Tim Hardaway ($5,200) is looking like a good way to get cheap exposure to Dallas today as their game with New Orleans has the closest spread and the second highest projected total of the slate. Hardaway has been seeing around 28 MPG off the bench lately and has gone for under 22 FP just once in his last six games, and he could see a boost in minutes if Bullock is unable to play through his quad contusion. For the Pelicans I think Brandon Ingram ($8,300) remains underpriced for the highest ceiling player on the team, while Herbert Jones ($5,500) and Josh Richardson ($5,100) are where I’d look for value for them.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Aaron Wiggins ($3,500) is $1,800 cheaper than FD so he’s projecting much better on DK on a p/$ basis, and he is definitely in play for value at almost minimum salary. Wiggins started yesterday and scored 22 FP in 33 minutes, and should be looking at similar minutes today especially if he starts again. Jaylin Williams ($3,700) also comes at a nice discount of $1,100 to FD, along with Josh Giddey ($7,600) who actually dropped $400 in salary overnight which makes no sense at all. Dario Saric ($3,400) remains a solid value option at that price and will definitely make my cash game lineup if he ends up starting today.

• Cam Reddish ($4,700) remains way too cheap as his price went up only $400 from last game, so he should easily fit in your cash game lineup at either SG or SF, and Matisse Thybulle ($4,000) is still seeing 32-37 minutes as a starter and remains in cash game consideration at that price. Check out our No House Advantage bonus offer for new signups, and I like betting the over on Reddish’ line of 13.5 points today.

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3,900) is under $4k for just the third time this season, and although he’s struggled a bit with just one 20+ FP game in his last five, he’s still producing a solid 15+ FP floor pretty much every game, and if his three-point shot can start falling a bit more (4 for his last 18) he will start smashing his salary. KCP should have a 30+ minute floor which is hard to find for anyone under $4k, so just on pure volume and a solid floor/ceiling combo don’t sleep on him as a salary saver in cash games today.

• DeAndre Hunter ($4,500) remains at his lowest salary of the season after putting up his fourth straight game of 22.75+ FP which is a 5x value floor, and he has shown flashes of 30+ FP upside many times this year, so the upside is always there and could be today in the highest projected game of the slate against the Wizards. Saddiq Bey ($4,800) is also super cheap and has been seeing 30+ minutes off the bench the last couple games going for over 30 FP in each, so he is a very solid GPP play if he doesn’t make your main build.

• Tim Hardaway ($4,600), Herbert Jones ($5,100), and Josh Richardson ($4,800) remain my favorite value plays from DAL/NOP.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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