NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 14
Big 10 game slate today with no teams on a back-to-back, so we have all of the initial injury reports. There’s a couple big names currently questionable, along with plenty of other important injury statuses. Three matchups will be rematches of their last game, with MIN/GSW, IND/PHI, and DAL/NOP all facing off again.
Let’s check out all the news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: Embiid is IN) – Joel Embiid is questionable with left hip soreness, so Paul Reed would likely start and be a top value play if Embiid sits. Tyrese Maxey is already one of my favorite plays of the slate, and no Embiid would elevate him to the likely most popular play of the slate as he’d be looking at a huge usage bump. I would also like to use Tobias Harris in cash games with no Embiid.
- (Update: Curry is OUT) – Stephen Curry is questionable with right knee soreness, and if out, Chris Paul would draw the start and be a top p/$ play at just $6,100 on both sites. Andrew Wiggins continues to see his price drop and he would have to be in play with no Curry, while Klay and Draymond would see usage bumps as well and have more appeal.
- (Update: LBJ is IN) – LeBron James is questionable with a left calf contusion that kept him out last game. If out we’d likely see Rui Hachimura start again and be a very strong value target on both sites. No LBJ would make Anthony Davis one of the highest upside plays of the slate, while Russell and Reddish would also see solid usage bumps.
- (Update: Keldon and Tre are OUT, Sochan is IN) – The Spurs have three key players questionable in Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson, and Tre Jones, so Victor Wembanyama could be a very busy man tonight if a couple of those guys end up out. Vassell and Branham would handle most of the PG work if Sochan and Jones are out, while Branhan, Osman and McDermott would get boosts in minutes if Keldon is out, and one could start.
- (Update: Herb is IN) – Herbert Jones continues to be questionable with his right leg contusion that has kept him out the last three games, and if he remains out Dyson Daniels should continue to start and be a strong value play.
- Xavier Tillman has missed the last four games with his knee injury and is questionable to return tonight. Still, even if he’s active, I’d expect Bismack Biyombo to continue to start after playing great as a starter the last four games. If Tillman remains out, then Biyombo would have a higher ceiling, and Aldama/Roddy would see bumps in playing time.
- (Update: Harris is OUT) – Gary Harris is questionable for Orlando, and if out all the available guards/wings would handle his minutes.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Sixers were already without Oubre and will also be without Nicolas Batum tonight, so Robert Covington is a strong candidate to join the starting lineup. They could go with someone like House or Korkmaz too, but regardless of who starts, it is still Maxey, Harris, and Embiid (if active) who will carry most of the offense.
- Trae Young will be out tonight after the birth of his second child, so Dejounte Murray will slide to PG and is a top play of the slate getting a big usage bump. Bogdan Bogdanovic is a top candidate to join the starting lineup at SG. However, even if they go with someone like Matthews or Griffin, I’d still consider Bogdanovic a top-value play of the slate off the bench.
- The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren again, so Marvin Bagley should continue to start and be a decent play that hasn’t shown much upside. Isaiah Stewart is the big man that benefits the most and should be on your cash game radar. At the same time, Ausar Thompson will also see a boost in usage.
- Markelle Fultz is out for Orlando with his knee tendinitis, so Anthony Black should continue to start and be a volatile value option. Ben Simmons remains out for Brooklyn, so look for Finney-Smith to continue to start.
- Brogdon and Henderson remain out for Portland, so Skylar Mays will continue to start at PG and is still a strong p/$ play even with his salary getting closer to $7k on both sites. Jacob Gilyard is also likely to start again for Memphis after doing so the last two games, and he’s still under $5k on both sites making him a solid value target.
- Rozier remains out for the Hornets and they’ll also be without Hayward and Miller tonight. Two of Thor, Maledon, and McGowens will likely join the starting lineup, while Ball, Washington, and Williams will have to carry most of the offense.
- Kenrich Williams is back for OKC to help at the forward spots, while Larry Nance is out indefinitely with broken ribs for New Orleans, so Marshall and Robinson-Earl will pick up his minutes.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I have to start cash games with Dejounte Murray ($8,600) today, as he’s already been putting up 40+ FP in most games with Young in, and now with Young out that should be his floor in a nice matchup with Detroit. Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,700) will also see a big usage bump and could draw the start, but either way, he should see 30+ minutes and has a solid 30-40 FP likely range today.
- Two guys in the POR/UTA game are really popping as top p/$ plays today in Jerami Grant ($6,700) and Keyonte George ($4,600), and I will likely use both of them in cash games. With all the Portland injuries Grant has seen 37+ minutes in six straight games yet his price continues to stay below $7k, so keep taking advantage of his cheap salary, especially in solid matchups like today against Utah. George has gone for 21+ FP in two games as a starter, and this is probably our last chance to play him for under $5k, especially if he puts up another 28+ FP game like he did in his last outing. Mays ($6,800) and Agbaji ($4,100) are other solid p/$ targets from that game.
- Cameron Johnson ($5,300) is a forward worth considering for cash games, as he’s fully back from his calf injury after seeing 34 minutes last game. He will be a $6k+ player sooner rather than later once he starts going for 25+ FP regularly. He’s still knocking off some shooting rust, going 9 for his last 29 attempts, but he can still fill up a variety of other stats and will continue to see a higher usage rate with Simmons and Thomas out.
- At the PF/C spot, I’m loving the price of Isaiah Stewart ($5,700), who will see a larger role with Duren out and has a great shot at 6-7x value today. If more value opens up throughout the day, I may get off him in cash games, but for now, he’s in strong consideration in a projected high-scoring and close game with Atlanta.
- With Keldon and Jones out for the Spurs now, Victor Wembanyama ($8,700) is now a top cash game target with an insane ceiling, while Devin Vassell ($6,800), Zach Collins ($6,300), and Malaki Branham ($4,400) become much more appealing options as well, especially if Sochan also sits.
- A few other cheap guys in cash game consideration are Cam Reddish ($5,400), Jacob Gilyard ($4,900), Reggie Jackson ($4,900), and Andrew Wiggins ($4,400). Chris Paul ($6,100) will skyrocket up the p/$ rankings if Curry sits, along with Paul Reed ($4,100) if Embiid sits.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Murray ($8,300) and Bogdanovic ($4,900) remain top cash game targets with Young out, and even though Grant ($7,500) and George ($5,300) are a bit pricier compared to FanDuel, they’re still in cash game consideration for me.
- Tyrese Maxey ($8,900) is a cash game lock for me on DraftKings, as his price inexplicably dropped $500 after going for almost 75 FP last game. In a rematch with Indiana with the possibility of Embiid joining Oubre and Batum on the sidelines, he could easily go for 70+ FP again.
- Cameron Johnson ($5,400) is still an excellent value at the PF position, and Michael Porter ($6,700) comes at a $600 discount to FanDuel and should be in serious contention for your main build at this low of a price. Isaiah Stewart ($5,700) is also still cheap enough for cash game consideration at the PF/C spots.
- With Keldon and Jones out for the Spurs now, Victor Wembanyama ($8,600) is now a top cash game target with an insane ceiling, while Devin Vassell ($6,300), Zach Collins ($6,400), and Malaki Branham ($3,900) become much more appealing options as well, especially if Sochan also sits.
- Jacob Gilyard ($4,500), Cam Reddish ($4,700), and Mike Conley ($4,900) are three of my favorite plays under $5k and I’ll include Rui Hachimura ($4,900) if LBJ is out, and for under $4k I’m looking at Ochai Agbaji ($3,900) and Robert Covington ($3,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck today!