NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/15/22
Small main slate today with five games including the Spurs who really stunk it up last night and now have to travel to Portland on the b2b. The Clippers are also on a b2b but they should get John Wall back but remain without Kawhi Leonard but we will see both teams’ official reports later today.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Zion Williamson is questionable with an ankle sprain and we will know his status before lock as he’s in the first game of the night. If Zion is out I’d expect Larry Nance or Naji Marshall to start while CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram would get nice usage bumps and have higher ceilings.
- Portland has Jusuf Nurkic, Justise Winslow, and Keon Johnson questionable in the last game of the night so Drew Eubanks could draw another start if Nurkic remains out while Hart, Grant, Little, and Watford would all absorb Winslow’s minutes & Johnson out wouldn’t affect much.
- We’ll see the Spurs injury report later but for now we can consider Tre Jones questionable with his stomach illness. If he’s out we could see Keita Bates-Diop join the starting five again or maybe they go with Josh Richardson since they didn’t exactly play well yesterday with the rotations they went with.
- Jaren Jackson is Q but expected to make his season debut for the Grizzlies but he will likely be eased in the first few games and might not even start right away so probably best to wait and see on him before trusting him in cash games today.
- Reggie Bullock is Q with a neck strain and his absence would likely move Tim Hardaway to the starting lineup while Josh Green will also get a bump in minutes.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Desmond Bane is out indefinitely with a toe sprain so look for John Konchar to be a regular starter for him and we’ll see if Jaren Jackson starts right away or comes off the bench but either way his presence will cap the ceilings of guys like Aldama, Adams, and Clarke.
- Ben Simmons and Yuta Watanabe were both Q but now will be available so the Nets bench will be very deep today especially at guard.
- The rest of the starting lineups should be pretty normal but the Zion, Nurkic, Bullock, and Tre Jones news will affect a few of them if any end up out.
- MEM/NOP, SAS/POR, and BKN/SAC are my favorite games to target today.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Joe Harris ($3,800) and John Konchar ($4,000) are two of the highest p/$ projected value plays today as both have clear paths for 30+ minutes in likely high scoring and competitive games today. Dillon Brooks ($5,200) is also a top value play with Bane out and even with Morant back and possibly Jackson too I think Brook’s price is just a bit too cheap still for his minutes and usage bumps with no Bane.
- Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,800) is another strong value play who should see 30+ minutes if he stays out of foul trouble but he does carry some risk of Sims getting more minutes if he’s playing better or Hartenstein does pick up some early fouls. Obi Toppin ($3,900) is extremely cheap and is in play if you need an extreme salary saver to fit in another stud.
- If Tre Jones ($5,900) is able to play today I think he’s an excellent target as the rest of his teammates are on a b2b so Jones should have the most energy in a nice matchup with Portland. If Jones remains out then I’d look at Keita Bates-Diop ($3,500) and Josh Richardson ($4,700) for value.
- If Zion is out I’d look at Larry Nance ($4,900) for value especially if he starts and if Bullock is out for DAL then Tim Hardaway ($4,500) becomes a really strong value option as well. Other guys I like for the price today include Reggie Jackson ($5,000), Royce ONeale ($5,100), Kevin Huerter ($5,800), Harrison Barnes ($5,500), and Keegan Murray ($5,600).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Joe Harris ($4,100) and John Konchar ($4,900) remain top value options while Dillon Brooks ($6,000) is still a solid play but not as appealing as he is on FD for $800 cheaper.
- Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,300) and Obi Toppin ($3,900) remain in play while Cam Reddish ($4,500) went bonkers last game for over 43 FP but is still just a GPP play for me.
- The Kings have a couple of my favorite value plays in Keegan Murray ($4,800) and Harrison Barnes ($4,700) and I will also include Kevin Huerter ($5,400) as all three are seeing solid minutes and should be heavily involved in a projected close, high scoring game with the Nets.
- If Nurkic remains out then Drew Eubanks ($3,900) will be a top value play of the slate while Tre Jones ($5,700) is a top play if active otherwise Josh Richardson ($4,200) and Keita Bates-Diop ($3,300) become very strong value targets.
- More DK value plays I like today include Malik Beasley ($4,200), Collin Sexton ($4,400), Reggie Jackson ($5,100), Tim Hardaway ($4,400), and Royce ONeale ($5,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn