NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/17/22
Just a 3-game slate today with all games starting at 10PM ET or later so we should have all the injury news of the slate before lock. No teams are on a back-to-back so we have all the injury reports which do include some pretty big names.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jusuf Nurkic, Justise Winslow, and Keon Johnson are questionable for Portland with only the first two being DFS relevant. If Nurkic sits Drew Eubanks should start and although he hasn’t been great in his recent uptick in minutes he’s still super cheap and would likely see around 33 minutes. Jerami Grant has been on fire over his last three games averaging around 50 FPPG and is already a great play but would be a top play of the slate if Winslow and Nurkic are out.
- Keegan Murray hurt his back last game and is questionable today and if out we could see Malik Monk, Terence Davis, or one of Metu or Lyles join the starting five. I’d be most interested in Monk or Davis if they started especially Davis as he’s super cheap and is coming off a 60 FP breakout game. No Murray would give bumps to Barnes and Sabonis’ usage rates as well.
- Keldon Johnson and Doug McDermott are questionable for the Spurs which could open up more minutes for Josh Richardson and Keita Bates-Diop with one likely starting if Johnson is out. Jones, Vassell, and Poeltl would be even better plays with no Johnson while Sochan and Bates-Diop would absorb most of McDermott’s minutes if out.
- In the last game of the night Paul George is questionable with a hand contusion and with no Clippers game Friday they may decide to give him two days of rest in what should be an easy matchup with Detroit today. If George is out Norman Powell would likely start but Batum could as well but all the starters would get big usage bumps.
- Kawhi Leonard was upgraded from out to questionable at 1:30PM giving him a chance to return today. If he’s active it would likely be off the bench with a minutes limit so he won’t be in play for DFS but it will lower the upside a little bit of guys like Mann and Powell.
- Cory Joseph is also Q in that game but he’s only been seeing around 5-10 minutes lately so his minutes would just be absorbed by Hayes, Ivey, and Burks.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Isaiah Stewart joins Cade Cunningham as out for the Pistons so we’ll likely see Saddiq Bey back in the starting lineup with Marvin Bagley moving to center while Killian Hayes should continue to start for Cade.
- Luke Kennard is out with a calf strain so Terance Mann or Norman Powell will likely start for him and both are strong value plays especially if George ends up out too.
- Kyrie Irving remains suspended so Edmond Sumner should continue to start for the Nets and the rest of the starting lineups today should be as expected unless any Q players end up out.
- SAS/SAC has by far the highest total of the slate and is my favorite game to target while BKN/POR is also a great game to target with a close spread and plenty of solid plays.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I definitely want some Kings exposure today as they have the highest team total of the slate and with Keegan Murray Q there could be more opportunity for some bench guys. Firstly I’m targeting Harrison Barnes ($5,500) and Kevin Huerter ($6,100) for value while Malik Monk ($4,400) and Terence Davis ($4,300) should be on your radar for value as well especially if one ends up starting for Murray.
- The Spurs are also in a great spot with the 2nd highest team total today so Jeremy Sochan ($4,300) is a decent salary saver who has been an extremely steady 18-22 FP producer as a starter. Keldon Johnson ($7,100) and Jakob Poeltl ($7,800) have elite ceilings today in a great matchup with SAC while Tre Jones ($6,300) and Devin Vassell ($6,800) are solid options as well with Jones being my preferred target.
- Edmond Sumner ($4,200) and Joe Harris ($3,800) are top punt options today as both have a great chance to 5-6x their salaries and Royce ONeale ($5,100) remains a solid mid-range option seeing major minutes when the Nets stay close in games.
- In the final game of the night I like the PGs for value in Killian Hayes ($5,300) and Reggie Jackson ($5,000) while Terance Mann ($4,000) is a top value play if he starts for Kennard. Marcus Morris ($5,500) and Ivica Zubac ($6,000) are solid mid-range targets for LAC while Bagley should see more minutes and usage with Stewart out and is a solid play for under $6k for DET.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Tre Jones ($6,100) and Nicolas Claxton ($5,500) are two of my favorite plays as both come at a discount to FD especially Claxton and both have 35+ FP upside at great prices. Terance Mann ($3,800) is also one of my favorite plays looking at 25+ minutes with Kennard out and potentially more if he starts and/or George ends up out.
- Jeremy Sochan ($4,300), Edmond Sumner ($4,000), Joe Harris ($4,600), Royce ONeale ($5,300), Reggie Jackson ($4,700), and Terence Davis ($4,300) all remain in play for value as well as Norman Powell ($4,200) who I would be all over if he starts for Kennard or George.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn