NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/2/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-02 22:38:08

10 games on today’s main slate and we already have a bunch of big questionable names that will make the top plays change at least a few times today if some end up out so make sure to follow all of RG’s resources for news and to keep checking HQ and the lineups page for how all the news affects the slate. The Bulls and Heat are on back-to-backs so we’ll see their injury reports later with the biggest unknown being Zach LaVine as he’s likely out but there is a slim chance he plays especially if he gets anything better than a doubtful tag on the first injury report.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Fred VanVleet is questionable with back stiffness and if he ends up out I’d be looking to play at least one of OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, or Pascal Siakam in a great matchup with the Spurs. (Update: FVV is OUT)

• Anthony Davis is also dealing with back tightness and is questionable in the final game of the night. You’d be able to swap to LeBron on FD or Zion on DK if Davis ends up out while Westbrook and Walker would be much more appealing plays as well.

• Zach LaVine and Andre Drummond are officially questionable as of 1:30pm and with an 8pm tip for Chicago hopefully we learn their statuses before lock. If LaVine sits I’d be way more inclined to target DeRozan, Williams, and Vucevic but if he plays then it’d be hard to trust Bulls guys to hit their ceilings especially Vucevic if LaVine and Drummond play. (Update: LaVine WILL PLAY while Drummond is OUT)

• Steven Adams, Desmond Bane, and Jake LaRavia are questionable for Memphis and with a 10pm tipoff make sure you have swap options if any of those three end up in your lineup. Bane’s absence would likely give John Konchar the start and Morant a usage bump while Adams being out would give the start at C to either Brandon Clarke or Xavier Tillman with the starter being a top value play if you can swap to them or hopefully we get that news early. LaRavia’s minutes would just be absorbed by bench forwards like Clarke and Roddy.

• Darius Garland is questionable with his eye injury and it’s sounding like he has a good chance to return today. If he does play it would push Dean Wade back to a bench role and take a good amount of usage from the other four starters making me hesitant to use any of their starting five in a cash game on such a big slate. If Garland ends up sitting though I’d consider Wade for value and Mitchell would have an elite ceiling while Evan Mobley would be a solid mid-range target. (Update: Garland WILL PLAY)

• Josh Hart is in the concussion protocol and questionable tonight which is pretty big news if he ends up out as they are already without Lillard so guys like Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic would get solid usage bumps and be top DFS plays along with Shaedon Sharpe as a top value play.

• Herb Jones was downgraded to questionable around 3PM so this puts Naji Marshall on the value radar as he’d likely start if Herb ends up out and he’s seen 35+ minutes in each of his last two games and gone for over 34 FP in each.

• Cam Reddish and Quentin Grimes are questionable for the Knicks and if both end up out it would give more minutes to Fournier and Barrett as their bench would be pretty thin as far as SF’s go. (Update: Reddish and Grimes are AVAILABLE)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• DeAaron Fox is dealing with a knee contusion and is out today so Davion Mitchell will take over at PG for the Kings and the sites did not adjust his price for this news as he’s under $5k on both FD and DK making him the best value play of the slate and likely highest owned player in cash games.

• Jimmy Butler is out for the Heat so Max Strus likely starts for him and is a solid value play while Lowry, Herro, and Adebayo get big usage bumps as the top offensive weapons.

• Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Blake Wesley, and Isaiah Roby are out for the Spurs (along with Primo) so we should see Bates-Diop or McDermott start at SF while Jones, Richardson, and Poeltl will carry most of the offense and are top DFS targets.

• Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington are out for LAC so Paul George keeps his immense ceiling in the same matchup he just put up over 75 FP last game while Luke Kennard likely remains a starter.

• (player-popup #brandon-ingram)Brandon Ingram”:/players/brandon-ingram-35227 remains out so either Trey Murphy or Naji Marshall will likely start at SF.

• With Lillard out for POR Shaedon Sharpe should continue to start while Troy Brown likely starts for again for LAL after starting last game.

• My favorite game stack today is MEM/POR especially if Bane, Adams, and/or Hart get ruled out as there is so much value and upside to be had on both teams.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Davion Mitchell ($4,900) is the first guy I’m locking in as he’s just way too cheap for a starting PG that can fill up the box score a variety of ways and yes everyone else will likely have him too in cash games but he’s just someone I can’t see fading today.

• The Knicks have one of the highest team totals of the slate at home against ATL so I don’t mind using RJ Barrett ($5,800) or Mitchell Robinson ($5,200) for cheap, high upside exposure to them while Jalen Brunson ($7,700) and Julius Randle ($7,400) remain very solid plays and are a bit underpriced too.

• Josh Richardson ($5,300) is off the injury report after missing last game and with Johnson, Vassell, Primo, and Wesley out of the picture it’s down to Richardson and Langford for SG minutes. Richardson is my favorite Spur to target for cash games with Jakob Poeltl ($7,200) my next favorite target and with Keldon Johnson out I’d look at Doug McDermott ($4,200) for value as well. (Update: Langford is starting at SG so he’s the safer play between he and Richardson)

• With LaVine iffy I think DeMar DeRozan ($7,900) is an excellent play as he’s the cheapest he’s been all season, is at home in a fantastic matchup with Charlotte, and could be lower-owned than usual as he’s had a few mediocre games in a row. I also like Patrick Williams ($4,100) for value as he’s starting to see over 30 minutes the last couple games and he put up just under 28 FP last game and has just as good of a matchup today. (Update: LaVine WILL PLAY)

• I also have to mention the Portland guys as Anfernee Simons ($7,800) is still too cheap given his usage and upside with Lillard out while Jerami Grant ($6,400) and Jusuf Nurkic ($7,100) are top targets as well especially if Hart ends up out. Shaedon Sharpe ($4,200) is in play as well although I’d rather target those first three Blazers as we have plenty of other value available.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Davion Mitchell ($4,200) is again the top value play on DK and basically a free square at that price while Patrick Williams ($3,700) only went up $200 after dropping over 26 FP yesterday and has a great matchup with Charlotte making him another top value play after Mitchell.

• Brook Lopez ($5,400) is standing out as a top play on DK as he’s $1,200 cheaper than FD and draws the same matchup as last game against Detroit where he put up just under 40 FP. Mitchell Robinson ($4,900) and Mason Plumlee ($4,700) are other really solid value options at C.

• If we get word that Darius Garland ($6,600) will play and have no limitations it will be hard to fade him at that price as he’s $900 cheaper than FD and this will likely be his lowest salary on DK all season.

• Anfernee Simons ($7,600), Jerami Grant ($6,300), and Jusuf Nurkic ($7,500) remain excellent plays for the price and if Josh Hart ends up out I like the price of Justise Winslow ($4,300) who could push for upwards of 30 minutes as a starter or off the bench.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn