NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 2
We have four games on tap today, and two of them currently have spreads of 8 or higher, and all have totals under 228. The low totals and big spreads are due to four teams playing on a back-to-back (TOR, DET, NOP, UTA), along with some pretty solid defenses going today along with a few below average offenses.
The 76ers-Clippers trade is now official, so Covington, Martin, and Morris will be available for Philly, while Batum is out for personal reasons. The biggest injury news is the potential return of Devin Booker as he’s questionable, along with a couple big names in the DET/NOP game that sat out yesterday, and we’ll see if anything else pops up once we get the b2b teams’ first injury reports later.
Let’s check out any other news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Devin Booker is questionable with his left ankle sprain, and if available, I’d be hesitant to use the cheap Suns players that have been great value lately. If Booker remains out, then keep targeting Gordon and Allen for cheap, and Durant would remain a top spend up keeping a big usage rate.
- We’ll find out officially later, but for now I’d consider Jalen Duren, Brandon Ingram, and Alec Burks questionable, as all three sat out yesterday. If Duren remains out, look for Bagley to start again and be a top value play, while Burks sitting would give more minutes to Sasser and Harris. Ingram out would likely give Jordan Hawkins another start, and he’d be a very strong value play coming off two straight 27+ FP games, while McCollum and Williamson would be top plays getting big usage bumps.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Kelly Oubre has been confirmed as the replacement starter for Tucker, and for $5,800 on both sites, he makes for a great mid-range play. I’d expect Robert Covington to be in the rotation right away, while Martin and Morris will likely be third string options behind Covington and House at the forward spots.
- Beal remains out for Phoenix, so Eric Gordon should continue to start for him. If Booker is out, we’d almost certainly see Grayson Allen remain a starter. SAS, ORL, UTA, and TOR should all have their standard lineups and rotations, while DET and NOP lineups will depend on the statuses of Duren, Burks, and Ingram.
- Zion Williamson is out for rest on the b2b, so we could see Jordan Hawkins start for him and all the forwards moves down a spot, or they could go with Larry Nance at PF. Either way it’s a huge usage bumps for McCollum and Valanciunas, and Hawkins is a great value play.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- CJ McCollum ($7,700) and Jordan Hawkins ($4,300) are both cash game locks for me with Zion out and potentially Ingram too.
- Jalen Suggs ($5,100) remains at a great price for a starter likely to see 30+ minutes in the closest projected spread of the slate. He’s gone for 25+ FP in three straight games and his price is starting to creep up, but it remains just a bit too low still, and he’s one of my favorite value targets.
- Also in that UTA/ORL game, we have Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,600) who saw a $200 price decrease overnight, and although he may not see over 30 minutes, he still has a great shot at 30+ FP if this game stays tight throughout as it’s projected to be. In the two games he’s seen over 25 minutes in this season he’s gone for over 30 FP, and his ability to contribute stats in all categories gives him a pretty high floor for a cash game value target. Jordan Clarkson ($6,000) is also a great option for more exposure to that game.
- Kelly Oubre ($5,800) and DeAnthony Melton ($5,600) are top value options for Philly, while Schroder ($6,300) and Poeltl ($5,900) are strong plays for the price from TOR.
Looking at DraftKings:
- CJ McCollum ($7,200) is an excellent value today even if Ingram plays, as he’s gone for 34+ FP in every game this year, and his price didn’t budge after going for 55.75 FP yesterday. Next game we’re sure to see his price jump to around $8k, so take advantage of him again today. Jordan Hawkins ($4,600) is also still a great play.
- Jordan Clarkson ($5,400) and Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,100) are popping as top values, especially Clarkson whose price dropped $200 overnight and comes at a $600 discount to FanDuel. This is the cheapest price on Clarkson I can ever remember, and as the starting PG in the likely most competitive game of the slate, he’s a cash game lock for me. THT saw a $200 price increase overnight, but still remains cheap enough to consider for cash games.
- Jalen Suggs ($5,000) is still my favorite value for Orlando, and Markelle Fultz ($5,500) remains at a great price if you need another cheap PG. OG Anunoby ($5,600) continues to be at a huge discount compared to his FanDuel price ($6,900), while Schroder ($6,200) and Poeltl ($5,900) remain solid midrange options, along with Melton ($5,500) and Oubre ($5,800).
- For under $5k, I think Killian Hayes ($4,600) is worth considering, especially if Burks remains out, and Marvin Bagley ($4,400) will be an easy cash game play if Duren remains out as he saw 33 minutes as a starter yesterday. Josh Okogie ($4,500) and Drew Eubanks ($4,500) both remain decent value options from Phoenix if you need to fill a final spot for $4.5k.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!