NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 24
Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Today we have a solid eight game slate starting at 7:30 PM ET, with eight relevant questionable players and most of the usual guys still out. Jalen Duren is a big name off the injury report and he immediately gets to play in a 242.5 game total against the Pacers.
Let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Giannis is now questionable with an illness, and if out Damian Lillard becomes a top cash game target, while all the other starters get big usage bumps and are cash game viable.
- Zach LaVine was a late scratch last game and is questionable today, and if out again, Patrick Williams would likely start, while DeRozan and Vucevic would get big usage bumps. Coby White is now questionable as well, so all of Caruso, Carter, and Dosunmu could get minutes bumps at PG if White is out.
- Duncan Robinson is questionable for Miami, so Richardson would likely start if he’s out, while Jaquez and Martin would get minutes bumps having to help more at SG/SF.
- Nesmith and Nembhard are questionable for the Pacers, and if the former sits, look for Obi Toppin to start and be a great value play. At the same time, Nembhard out would give more minutes to Hield, Brown, Mathurin, and McConnell. Tyrese Haliburton is now questionable as well, and if out I’d expect McConnell or Nembhard (if active) to start, while all the starters would get big time usage bumps.
- Bilal Coulibaly is now questionable, and if out it would mean more minutes for Shamet and Kispert.
- Norman Powell is questionable with his groin injury, so guys like Mann, Westbrook, and Coffey would see bumps in usage if he’s out again.
- Precious Achiuwa is questionable for Toronto, and his time would just be taken by Boucher and Porter if out.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Jalen Duren is back for Detroit, so Bagley goes back to the bench, and I’d expect Ivey to continue to start over Hayes.
- Buddy Hield should continue to start over Mathurin, and we’ll see if Nesmith or Toppin starts at PF.
- With Murray still out, I’d expect Chris Duarte to start again, and Alexander-Walker will likely be the regular starter until McDaniels returns for Minnesota.
- Branham started over Vassell last game, so we’ll see if that continues, and with Draymond still suspended, look for CP3 to remain a starter.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The Pacers continue to be a top team to target in cash games playing in the highest game total again, and Buddy Hield ($5,000) is my favorite p/$ play from them. Since becoming a starter, he’s seen 30+ MPG and averaged over 35 FPPG, yet his price has only gone up a couple hundred, so keep taking advantage of his mispricing in your cash games. Haliburton ($10,600) remains a top spend up with 60+ FP games in four of his last five, while Brown ($5,300) is still a solid value target, and Toppin ($4,700) would be as well if Nesmith is out again.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,200) didn’t see a price change after going for 23.2 FP in 28 minutes as a starter last game, so I will continue to lock him in my main build until he gets above $5k. He gets a nice pace-up matchup with the Kings today and should be easy to fit in at either SG or SF.
- James Harden ($7,400) remains underpriced after his third straight game of 37+ FP, and he could be looking at a slight bump in usage if Powell is out. This is almost certainly our last chance to play him for under $7.5k, and if he does well again today, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s above $8k next game, so keep taking advantage of this price.
- Klay Thompson ($5,400) and the Warriors get a great home matchup with the Spurs and currently have the third highest team total of the slate. With Green out, Klay has seen a nice usage bump and has gone for 27+ FP in two straight games, and with his price not changing since the last game, he makes for an excellent p/$ SG cash game play.
- More guys I like for the price today include Alex Caruso ($5,100), Kyle Lowry ($5,100), Jaden Ivey ($4,900), Harrison Barnes ($4,700), Mike Conley ($5,000), Reggie Jackson ($5,000), Dillon Brooks ($4,700), and Andrew Wiggins ($5,100).
Looking at DraftKings:
- With Murray out last game Trey Lyles ($3,300) saw 27 minutes in his season debut, and at almost minimum price if he sees anything close to that many minutes today, he’d have to be in cash game consideration. He even put up 22 FP with no assists, steals, or blocks, so there’s room for a higher ceiling, so keep him on your radar if you need to fill a final forward or flex spot on your favorite build.
- Hield ($5,500) remains a cash game lock at this cheap, and either Nesmith ($4,500) or Toppin ($4,900) are top values depending on who starts. Jaden Ivey ($5,100) is my favorite p/$ target from Detroit looking at 28+ minutes as a starter.
- Alexander-Walker ($4,400) is still a great cash game value at the guard spots. I think Anthony Edwards ($8,700) is still underpriced considering the matchup with the Kings, McDaniels being out, and this being his second-lowest salary of the season.
- I’m not as interested in Klay ($6,000) at this price compared to FanDuel, but Chris Paul ($7,200) is $500 cheaper on DK and is who I’d be targeting from the Warriors in cash games here.
- Caruso ($4,800), Highsmith ($4,000), Barnes ($5,000), Sochan ($5,900), and Lopez ($5,800) are more guys on my cash game radar for cheap.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!