NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 27
Portland and Denver are the only teams on a back-to-back, so look for their initial injury reports later today. We have a good amount of questionable players from the other eight teams playing and a lot of the usual guys still out.
Let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jokic is questionable with lower back pain, and if he ends up out I’d consider Reggie Jackson and Michael Porter close to must plays in cash games with Gordon already out too. KCP and whoever starts at center would also be viable value options if Jokic sits.
- LBJ and Reddish are questionable for the Lakers, but I’d treat LeBron as probable at this point as he’s been questionable with his calf contusion pretty much every game for the last week or so. If he somehow ends up out, I’d expect either Reaves or Christie to start with Prince sliding to PF, and one of those two will almost certainly start if Reddish remains out.
- Nesmith has missed the last two games with a wrist injury and is questionable today, so Obi Toppin should continue to start until Nesmith is available, and even if Nesmith is available, he may come off the bench initially.
- Poole tanked a ton of lineups Saturday as he had no injury designation, then was scratched with an ankle injury after his game locked. He’s questionable today and will likely see a big dip in ownership as he left a bad taste in a lot of peoples’ mouths, but if he remains out, look for Kispert to start again, and the other starters would see nice usage bumps.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Hachimura remains out, so Wood and Hayes will get most of his minutes, and Batum should continue to start until Oubre returns. House and Springer are out for the 76ers, so guys like Covington, Beverley, Morris, and Korkmaz will handle their time.
- We’ll see if Jalen Duren gets his starting spot back after he came off the bench last game, and I’m expecting Brogdon to remain the starting PG for Portland as Henderson came off the bench last game.
- Walker Kessler also came off the bench last game with Yurtseven drawing the start, so if he doesn’t start today, I’d expect that to happen again. With Markkanen out now look for either Fontecchio or Agbaji to start at SF.
- Aaron Gordon is out again so Justin Holiday will likely start at PF again, and all the starters get nice usage bumps.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The WSH/DET game is my favorite to target for cash games, as it has the second-highest projected total of the slate and the closest spread. Jaden Ivey ($5,200) continues to be underpriced as the starting SG with back-to-back games of 25.3 and 34.9 FP, so continue to lock him in your main build until his price starts making that decision a bit tougher. Jalen Duren ($6,700) is my next favorite Pistons player for cash games, as he put up 38.6 in 28 minutes off the bench in his first game back from an ankle injury, and I think that’s his floor today in a great matchup.
- On the Wizards side, I like using at least two of Jones ($5,600), Poole ($6,600), and Kuzma ($7,900) in cash games, as all three are about $300-500 underpriced, and I think Poole’s ownership will be much lower than usual after his late-scratch last game that burned a ton of lineups. If Poole sits with his ankle injury, then Jones/Kuzma are cash game locks for me, and either Kispert ($4,200) or Coulibaly ($4,900) become cash game viable.
- Zion Williamson ($8,100) remains too cheap and is a top p/$ cash game PF, and Dyson Daniels ($5,500) continues to be a great value at PG with b2b games over 29 FP. Keyonte George ($5,600) is also still cash game viable at a great price, and even if Walker Kessler ($5,700) comes off the bench and only sees around 25 minutes I would still consider him as a center value with Markkanen out again.
- Reggie Jackson ($5,000) has gone for 31+ FP in three of his last four games yet his price hasn’t budged, so I’ll keep using him in one of my PG spots especially with Gordon still out. From the Clippers, Terance Mann ($4,600) has been a strong value since becoming a starter, going for 25+ FP in b2b games, so keep him on your radar if you need a cheap SG/SF.
- The POR/IND game has some blowout concern with a 12.5 spread currently, but if it does stay competitive, then Malcolm Brogdon ($7,700) and Buddy Hield ($5,300) would be my top p/$ plays from each team. If you think Indy blows them out, someone like Mathurin ($5,500) or Nembhard ($4,400) could get a big bump in minutes and become top GPP plays.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Ivey ($5,400) is still my favorite cash game play of the slate, and Duren ($6,700) is still a solid play, but I’m also considering Isaiah Stewart ($5,500) as he’s $600 cheaper than FanDuel.
- Poole ($6,800) is my favorite Wizards play, as Jones ($6,200) and Kuzma ($8,600) are priced up a bit, while Williamson ($8,700) and Daniels ($5,700) are still top p/$ plays from New Orleans.
- Jackson ($5,800) is still a strong value from Denver, but I prefer him for $800 cheaper on FanDuel, while Mann ($4,100) looks like an excellent value at a $500 discount to FanDuel.
- Kessler ($5,500) is an excellent value center even if he doesn’t start, while Prince ($4,600) and Batum ($4,200) should be on your value radar if you need another cheap forward.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch “NBA Crunch Time”.
Good luck today!