NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/18/22
NBA DFS is back! It will be back with more of a bang (12 games) on Wednesday, but even with just two games on Tuesday’s main slate, it still feels great to have NBA DFS back in our lives.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG. Feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. With that in mind, knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
With only two games there isn’t much injury news, but at least we don’t have much uncertainty as to who will be available. Robert Williams is the biggest name out after off-season knee surgery while Dennis Schroder will also miss some time with a ligament injury in his thumb. Andre Iguodala, Thomas Bryant, and Troy Brown will also miss the opener while Danilo Gallinari is out indefinitely for BOS after ACL surgery.
Steve Kerr has said the Warriors’ top five or six guys aren’t ready to play 30+ minutes due to conditioning so temper your ceiling expectations for GSW guys as they will likely go deep into the bench rotation.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
With Williams out for BOS Al Horford will get most of the C minutes, with Vonleh and Griffin helping there as well. Malcolm Brogdon is the Celtic’s biggest addition and will rotate with Smart and White at PG/SG. PJ Tucker and De’Anthony Melton are the biggest additions for Philly with Tucker likely joining the starting five and Melton their new sixth man. The Warriors should have their same usual starting five as last season with a couple of new bench guys in JaMychal Green and Donte DiVincenzo along with James Wiseman finally healthy but likely eased back in to start the season. The Lakers added Lonnie Walker, Patrick Beverley, Damian Jones, and Juan Toscano-Anderson this offseason with Beverley and Walker likely starting opening night with Schroder out and Westbrook likely off the bench.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Austin Reaves ($3,900), Lonnie Walker ($4,000), and Derrick White ($4,400) are top value plays on the slate along with Patrick Beverley ($4,900) and the Lakers’ guards will be even better plays if Westbrook sits or is limited with his hamstring. De’Anthony Melton ($4,200) and Kendrick Nunn ($4,300) are cheap GPP plays to consider in that price range.
- If you don’t pay up for Joel Embiid ($10,700) or Anthony Davis ($10,100) at center then I’d go with Al Horford for just $6,000 as he should get solid minutes with Robert Williams out and his price will help you fit in studs at other positions like Harden, James, Tatum, and Curry.
- Other plays I like for the price include Draymond Green ($6,300), Klay Thompson ($6,800), Andrew Wiggins ($6,700), Jordan Poole ($6,000), Tyrese Maxey ($6,500), Tobias Harris ($6,600), Marcus Smart ($5,900), and Malcom Brogdon ($6,200).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Al Horford ($4,900) and Tyrese Maxey ($5,000) are the first two guys I’m locking in while Reaves ($3,400), White ($4,100), Beverley ($4,300), Walker ($4,200), Brogdon ($4,900), and Nunn ($3,000) remain some of the next best value targets.
- The mid-range guys I like include Draymond Green ($5,800), Tobias Harris ($5,900), Klay Thompson ($6,500), Jordan Poole ($6,700), and Andrew Wiggins ($7,000) and my favorite spend ups of the slate are LeBron James ($9,200), Joel Embiid ($9,900), and James Harden ($8,900).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn