NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/21/22
We’re closing out the week with an 11-game slate that has some pretty fun matchups as Rudy Gobert faces his former Jazz team and last year’s MVP takes on last year’s champions with DEN/GSW to end the night.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Zach LaVine, Jamal Murray, LaMelo Ball, Myles Turner, Jaren Jackson, Marvin Bagley, Robert Williams, Chris Boucher, Dillon Brooks, and Victor Oladipo are the big names out today while some other names of importance out today include Jonathan Isaac, JaeSean Tate, Alec Burks, Seth Curry, Danilo Gallinari, Ziaire Williams, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danny Green, Jaxson Hayes, Otto Porter, Cody Martin, Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Quentin Grimes, Corey Kispert, Landry Shamet, Andre Iguodala, and Gary Payton.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
With Lavine out again Alex Caruso should start at SG for the Bulls and with Turner out at least a week for the Pacers Jalen Smith should continue to start at C. John Konchar will almost certainly start at SF for Memphis with Williams out and Brooks doubtful along with Santi Aldama at PF coming off a huge first game. Bruno Fernando started at C instead of Alperen Sengun in Houston’s opener but both saw under 26 minutes so probably best to avoid that situation for now outside of GPPs and it looks like Terrence Ross and Jordan Clarkson are the starting SGs for ORL and UTA after being bench guys for most of the last couple years.
My favorite game to target/stack is MEM/HOU with some great options on both teams in what should be a high scoring game while NOP/CHA also has a high total of 230 with plenty of targets on both teams to stack. A few other games I like stacking are SAS/IND, TOR/BKN, PHO/POR, and ORL/ATL.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The first guy I’m starting with in cash games is John Konchar ($4,100) who only saw a $600 salary increase from last game after he went for over 33 FP in 33 minutes and gets an even better matchup and game environment today against Houston. His teammate Desmond Bane ($6,300) is still a bit underpriced after putting up over 30 FP in 37 minutes last game while shooting 3-13 from three so his ceiling is sky-high if he starts making more shots from deep.
- Cameron Johnson ($4,300) will be a popular value play as he’s currently our top p/$ projected player on FD and although he might not see 35+ minutes he should still pay off his salary easily if he sees 25-30 minutes. Jabari Smith ($4,800) is the 2nd best p/$ projected play and he is one of my favorite cash game targets in an up-tempo game with Memphis who should see 32+ minutes and isn’t afraid to launch from three (11 attempts last game). Ayo Dosunmu ($5,000) is another name that’s going to be hard to fade for cash games as he’s priced super cheap, should see 35+ minutes, and with no LaVine has a great chance at going for 35+ FP like last game.
- Other value plays I like a lot today include Mike Conley ($5,400), Jaden Ivey ($5,300), Kelly Oubre ($5,100), Bennedict Mathurin ($4,300), Santi Aldama ($4,300), Franz Wagner ($5,700), and Tre Jones ($5,100). If Jamal Murray sits for Denver then Bones Hyland ($3,900) will be a top value play as well.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Devin Vassell ($5,100) didn’t have a great opening game as he missed all eight of his three point attempts but still scored over 20 FP so I will be going back to him at this price as his ceiling is much higher than 20 and his teammate Tre Jones ($4,900) went up $700 in salary but is still a very solid PG value option.
- Deandre Ayton ($6,600) and Cameron Johnson ($5,000) are looking like solid options for the price against Portland along with Josh Hart ($5,400) on the other side of that game who scored over 36 FP in 38 minutes last game. I also have to mention DeMar DeRozan ($8,700) as a DK value since his salary actually dropped by $100 after going for over 64 FP last game compared to FD who increased his salary by $900 and with LaVine out today DDR has one of the highest ceilings of the slate against Washington.
- Other plays I like on DK for the price include Nikola Vucevic ($7,500), Kyle Kuzma ($7,100), Gordon Hayward ($5,800), Marcus Smart ($5,300), Wendell Carter ($6,500), John Konchar ($4,800), Santi Aldama ($5,100), Lauri Markkanen ($5,900), Jaden McDaniels ($5,300), and Bones Hyland ($4,000) if Murray sits.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn