NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/26/22
10 games on today’s main slate with a couple rematches from their last games between SAS/MIN & HOU/UTA while only the Pistons are on a back-to-back.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defense. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Scottie Barnes is once again questionable with his ankle sprain and if ruled out I’d expect Toronto to do something similar as last game where Koloko started but Precious Achiuwa saw starter’s minutes off the bench.
- In the last games of the night we have Michael Porter questionable with potential “injury management” of his back so make sure you have swap options if he ends up in your lineups. Denver could start a few different guys if Porter sits in Brown, Green, Braun, or Reed at SF. (Michael Porter is officially OUT)
- Myles Turner and JaeSean Tate are both questionable but both are looking likely to return. Even if Tate doesn’t start right away his presence makes he hesitant to use any PF/C’s for Houston outside of possibly Jabari Smith. If Myles Turner ends up playing then I will be avoiding all of the Pacers PF/Cs although Turner himself is pretty cheap on both sites and would be an interesting GPP play.
- Terry Rozier, Russell Westbrook, Devin Vassell, Otto Porter, and Cody Martin are all doubtful and I’ll get more in to those implications in the next section. (Vassell, Westbrook, Rozier, Porter, and Martin are now OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Darius Garland will remain out for CLE so look for Okoro and Osman to continue to get more minutes at the SG/SF spots while Donovan Mitchell keeps his immense ceiling. Dean Wade will join the starting five tonight instead of Okoro making him an interesting DFS value option.
- With LaMelo Ball and Rozier out we will see Dennis Smith keep starting at PG for Charlotte and he is a fine mid-range target on both sites (slam dunk play on Yahoo for $12).
- Devin Vassell and Joshua Primo being out will give a ton of opportunity to Josh Richardson and give Jones, Johnson, and Poeltl usage bumps and higher ceilings.
- For the Lakers, they could start a few different guys for Westbrook between Brown, JTA, Reaves, or Nunn with Beverley sliding to PG, but with better value plays available in other games, I won’t be considering whoever they end up starting. No Westbrook will give usage bumps to LeBron and AD as well as Beverley and Walker, making all of them more appealing plays. (Update: Austin Reaves expected to start for Westbrook)
- Jaden Ivey was announced out around 6:30pm with an illness so Cade Cunningham will have to carry more of the offense along with Bey and Bogdanovic while Diallo, Hayes, Joseph, and Livers will all absorb Ivey’s minutes.
- My top games to target or stack are SAS/MIN, HOU/UTA, and MIA/POR while the Hawks, Bucks, Bulls, and Cavs are other teams I like targeting players from.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- A few big men are standing out to me as top p/$ plays in Jakob Poeltl ($6,600), Bam Adebayo ($7,000), and Kelly Olynyk ($5,300) and with the latter two’s PF eligibility you could play all three if you want. Adebayo is my favorite play of the three as his price went down $700 from last game and in what should be a close game with Portland I think he is just too cheap to fade with 45+ FP upside today.
- With Vassell out, I think Keldon Johnson ($7,200) is an excellent play who is a bit underpriced after a couple of “down” games but he will have to carry a lot more offense today and should push closer to 35 minutes and has easy 40+ FP upside. Whoever starts between Josh Richardson ($4,600) and Joshua Primo ($4,500) will be a top value target as well. (Update: Joshua Primo is OUT)
- Ayo Dosunmu ($5,000) is another name I want to mention as the Bulls have a great matchup at home against the Pacers and with one of the highest team totals of the slate I think Dosunmu is the best p/$ target to get exposure to their offense. He is a bit volatile with two games under 20 FP along with two games over 33 FP this year but the matchup today should make him more likely to have one of his better games.
- Some other guys that I like for the price today include RJ Barrett ($5,900), Ben Simmons ($6,000), Kyle Lowry ($5,100), Clint Capela ($5,600), Josh Hart ($6,000), Evan Mobley ($6,400), Cedi Osman ($4,200), and Aaron Gordon ($5,600).
Looking at DraftKings:
- The Spurs are jumping out as top p/$ targets especially Josh Richardson ($3,900) and Joshua Primo ($4,000) who are both in play regardless of who starts at those prices. Keldon Johnson ($6,800) and Jakob Poeltl ($6,400) are two of my top DK targets while Tre Jones ($5,500) is a solid play as well though not a priority for me.
- Bam Adebayo ($7,200) remains a top play at that price while Kelly Olynyk ($5,600) should see 30+ minutes if that game stays close and has shown solid upside when given big minutes in good matchups. His teammate Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,100) keeps seeing his price increase each game as he’s gone for over 30 FP in three straight games and is a very strong play today against Houston before his price really starts to get up there.
- More players to consider at nice prices are Tyrese Maxey ($5,800), Evan Mobley ($6,300), Lonnie Walker ($4,700), Saddiq Bey ($5,900), Royce ONeale ($4,800), Brook Lopez ($5,300), and Clint Capela ($5,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn