NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/31/22
Happy Halloween! We’ve been treated to a solid seven game slate to end the month with a few big questionable tags to haunt us throughout the day. Hopefully there’s no other surprise tricks when we get the WAS, DET, HOU, and LAC injury reports later as they are all on a back-to-back and I am officially out of ways to relate today’s slate to Halloween.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Ja Morant missed last game with an illness and is questionable today so hopefully we learn his status before 7pm lock as Memphis tips at 9pm. Tyus Jones isn’t as much of a lock at his current price ($6k/$6.1k) as he was for under $5k last game with Morant out but is still a great option for 45+ FP upside if Morant ends up sitting. Bane and Brooks would also get big usage bumps and both are still a little underpriced.
- Speaking of Desmond Bane he is also questionable with ankle soreness so this could open up a ton of minutes and usage for Memphis if he and Morant end up out and we might not learn their statuses until way after lock. I’d make sure to have spots to swap to Tyus Jones and/or Dillon Brooks as both would be elite DFS plays if Bane and Morant are out.
- Joel Embiid is also questionable with an illness and we will know his status before lock as the 76ers are the first game of the night. If Embiid sits then Tucker & Harrell would get most of the center minutes while Harden, Maxey, and Harris get big usage bumps and will carry most of the offense. Melton would also likely start and be a top DFS play at his price on both sites.
- Fred VanVleet is questionable with lower back stiffness and if out I will be looking at all the Raptors starters as great DFS options depending on price and positional needs on each site.
- Ben Simmons is questionable with left knee soreness and his absence would give all the starters slight usage bumps and we could see a few different guys start for him.
- Aaron Nesmith, Jake LaRavia, and TJ McConnell are all questionable as well and if any of them are out it would mainly effect other bench guys’ minutes.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, Robert Covington, and John Wall so Paul George should be chucking it today in a great matchup with Houston. Marcus Morris, Norman Powell, and Terance Mann are all looking like solid value options.
- Jalen Duren hurt his ankle yesterday and is out for the Pistons today so Isaiah Stewart should have to play 32+ minutes again and Nerlens Noel will be his main backup now but it’s hard to know how many minutes he’ll see as he hasn’t played at all this year.
- SAC/CHA, IND/BKN, and MEM/UTA are my favorite game stacks.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The Clippers are popping as top p/$ targets with a great matchup against HOU. If Terance Mann ($4,000) starts again he’d be my top value target while Reggie Jackson ($4,800), Norman Powell ($4,300), and Marcus Morris ($5,000) are all in play depending on positional needs. Paul George ($8,200) is also way underpriced at his cheapest salary of the season and with this great of a matchup and the usage bump with no Kawhi he’s one of the first guys I’m locking in for cash games.
- Keegan Murray ($5,500) and Domantas Sabonis ($7,700) are too cheap in a great matchup with Charlotte and I will also try to get in DeAaron Fox ($8,600) in my cash game build. I don’t like taking four guys from one team usually but Kevin Huerter ($5,100) is absolutely in play at that price coming off a monster 41 FP performance last game.
- With Jalen Duren out I think Isaiah Stewart ($5,600) is a great target as he could have to play more minutes than usual with only Noel and Key as center depth behind him.
- More cheap guys I like today include Monte Morris ($5,000), Jalen McDaniels ($4,900), Saddiq Bey ($5,300), DeAnthony Melton ($4,700), and Brandon Clarke ($4,300).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Myles Turner ($5,500) is a top p/$ projected play on DK today as he’s $1,300 cheaper than he is on FD and with two days of rest I think he’ll come out very aggressive in a nice matchup with the Nets making him the first guy I’m locking in for cash games.
- Isaiah Stewart ($5,200) is also cheaper than he is on FD and with Duren out it will be hard to fade his 40+ FP upside he just showed last game. Alperen Sengun ($5,200) is the same price but probably won’t see as many minutes but you could fit Turner, Stewart, and Sengun in the same lineup.
- Terance Mann ($4,400) and Marcus Morris ($4,900) are my favorite Clippers value options while the Hornets have a few underpriced options with a nice matchup against SAC in Dennis Smith ($6,000), Kelly Oubre ($5,900), and Gordon Hayward ($6,200).
- Other DK value I like includes Tobias Harris ($5,500), DeAnthony Melton ($4,000), Kevin Huerter ($5,300), Jalen McDaniels ($4,600), Buddy Hield ($5,900), Saddiq Bey ($5,500), Brook Lopez ($5,100), and Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,300).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn