NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 3/30/2022
We have a pretty wild eleven-game slate today with only two teams on a back-to-back (DAL & WAS) so we have almost every teams’ current injury reports available. We’re starting to see teams out of contention shutting players down for the year and it’s only going to happen more as players with any kind of injury don’t want to make it worse with nothing to play for. It’s also getting close to playoffs with about 11 days of regular season basketball remaining so make sure to check the standings and see which teams are still fighting for a spot in the play-in tournament as those guys are likely to see the most minutes and go all-out every game which is what we need in DFS to hit those ceiling scores. Speaking of ceiling games and motivation who else is looking forward to CJ McCollum’s return to Portland tonight?! (double checks Portland has at least eight players available….yup!)
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA DFS, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Projections Preview – Wednesday, March 30th
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Looking at NBA Starting Lineups we see Houston missing Wood, Gordon, and Schroder as all three have been shut down for the remainder of the season. Sengun is trending doubtful now Martin, Garubo, and Fernando will all help cover the C minutes while Josh Christopher and Daishen Nix are now the top bench guards the rest of the way. Josh Christopher is a name to keep an eye on as he could get some big minutes down the stretch and has a great shot at paying off his $3,900 price tonight which is probably the last time we’ll see him under $4k coming off a 42 FP game in over 30 minutes.
Evan Mobley will miss tonight’s game with an ankle injury so we should see Kevin Love draw the start at C and is a great play on FanDuel for $5,300. Looking at the CourtIQ with the available Cavaliers tonight we see Darius Garland with a team-high 31% usage rate scoring 1.23 FPPM with Love scoring 1.40 FPPM. Assuming Garland gets 40+ minutes and Love sees 30+ minutes both should be excellent plays.
Another big man missing tonight is Wendell Carter so we should see Chuma Okeke draw the start and he still has an excellent price on both DK and FD. He’s seen over 34 minutes in two of his last three games and with a projected close game (3 point spread currently) with Washington Okeke is looking too cheap to fade for a guy with big upside likely to see 30+ minutes. Jalen Suggs remains out so RJ Hampton should continue to start.
Dallas will remain without Sterling Brown and Trey Burke but joining them will also be Spencer Dinwiddie who will rest on the back-to-back. Look for Brunson and Bullock to see more minutes as well as Josh Green as they will all help cover Dinwiddie’s minutes and we could see newly added Brandon Knight in the mix right away as well.
The Pacers have a lot of unknowns right now but thankfully they play in the earliest wave of games so we will know their starters before lock. Right now we’re treating Brogdon and Jackson as doubtful and if they end up out Indiana will have 10 available and potentially 9 if Bitadze ends up on the wrong side of his Q tag. Oshae Brissett was a late-scratch last game but could return tonight while Duane Washington is hoping to return as well after missing last game.
The Celtics will get back Brown, Tatum, and Horford after they all missed last game and the same for the Warriors with Thompson, Green, and Porter. Some more starters hoping to return after missing last game include DeAndre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, Tre Mann, and Jaren Jackson.
Lastly Portland will get a little extra help today with Greg Brown likely available after missing last game and Didi Louzada on track to be available for the first time since last November.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
The biggest questionable tag in The Situation Room comes from the last game of the night with Jonas Valanciunas iffy with right foot soreness. Usually when Jo-Val sits we immediately plug in Willy Hernangomez but with Larry Nance back in the mix I’ll want to see who starts first. If Valanciunas does up out we could see either Nance or Hernangomez start at center and with both under $4k on both sites I think swapping to the starter is a very strong play as they’ll likely be pretty low-owned. I would also be looking to swap in CJ McCollum and/or Brandon Ingram if you don’t already have them in your lineup as they see a 5.5% and 4.1% usage increase respectively with Valanciunas off the floor with both scoring around 1.40 FPPM.
The OKC-ATL game has a handful of questionable tags in DeAndre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, Jalen Johnson, and Tre Mann. If Hunter or Gallinari sit look for Bogdan Bogdanovic, Delon Wright, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot to all help cover their minutes while Johnson’s status isn’t relevant on this big of a slate. Tre Mann sitting would leave OKC with just 8 available and would likely give Vit Krejci another start. All of the Thunder starters would be in play with no Mann as they would be looking at huge minutes.
We have a trio of iffy big men in Jaren Jackson, Alperen Sengun, and Goga Bitadze all with varying levels of DFS importance. The most important of the group for me is Sengun as Houston is already without Wood so they would be down KJ Martin, Bruno Fernando, and Usman Garuba to cover the center spot with the starter of that group being the best value play while JaeSean Tate will be a top play of the slate. If Isaiah Jackson doesn’t return from his headache we’d be looking at Jalen Smith starting at C if Bitadze ends up out but I think there’s better plays in his price range. The Grizzlies are pretty deep at the forward position so Jaren Jackson sitting again wouldn’t do much for me as far as liking any other Memphis guys more but Kyle Anderson would likely start again and for around $4.3k on both sites would be a decent value play.
I touched on the Pacers earlier and we will know who’s in or out for them before lock but they will need at least one of Brogdon, Bitadze, Jackson, Brissett or Washington to play or they will have just 7 available. Evan Fournier is also Q for personal reasons and if out we could see Miles McBride draw the start while he, Burks, Barrett, and Quickley would all help cover Fournier’s time.
Khem Birch status isn’t important today as Toronto has Siakam, Achiuwa, and Boucher available to cover his minutes while Robinson, Martin, and Vincent would all have to be ruled out for me to give any bumps to other Heat players and the same can be said for Lamb, Len, and Jackson for the Kings.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with FanDuel we see a few Houston guys with great p/$ projections in JaeSean Tate, KJ Martin, and Josh Christopher. Tate at $4,100 is a top value play of the slate looking at 27+ minutes and depending on how today’s news shakes out I’m not sure Christopher will be a needed value play but for $3,900 coming off a monster game and Gordon/Schroder/Wood all out he will likely have a 20 minute floor and he just showed his immense upside last game with over 40 FP. We’re projecting KJ Martin to see the most minutes between he, Fernando and Garuba so he should be a top value play as well even if he doesn’t end up starting. Kevin Love for $5,300 is way too cheap for his expected role today with Allen and Mobley both out and he should have no problem finding a spot in your lineup with PF and C eligibility along with Caris LeVert for $5,200 getting a usage bump with no Mobley today. I’m not sure why Tomas Satoransky is still so cheap but for $3,900 I think we have to keep riding his value with three straight games over 23 FP. There is just so much value today I could keep going on and on with guys that are too cheap for their expected roles but the main players I’m considering after everyone I’ve already mentioned are Chuma Okeke ($4,600), Clint Capela ($5,900), Greg Brown ($3,500), Keon Johnson ($3,900), CJ Elleby ($4,300), Rui Hachimura ($4,200), and Vit Krejci ($4,500)
On DraftKings I’m locking in JaeSean Tate ($4,500) and KJ Martin ($3,600) while Josh Christopher ($3,900) is still a solid option too. Kevin Love is also at a tough price of $6,900 along with LeVert at $5,900 but both could pay off those prices easily with their expanded roles today but aren’t as much of a priority as they are for me compared to FD. If Tre Mann ends up out I will be all over Theo Maledon ($5,700), Aaron Wiggins ($4,600), and Vit Krejci ($4,000) as all are just too cheap for the huge minutes they’d all be looking at. Tomas Satoransky at $4,200 is in the similar boat as FD as it’s just too cheap for his consistent starting role and like 20+ FP floor. Some other guys on DK I’m strongly considering include Donte DiVincenzo ($5,300), Max Strus ($3,400), Monte Morris ($4,700), Chuma Okeke ($5,100), and Dwight Powell ($4,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn