NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/5/2022
We’re in store for another wild NBA slate with 12 games spaced out pretty evenly throughout the night but at least no teams are on a back-to-back so we have all the first injury reports. For now it’s looking like no team is going full rest-mode today but that can still change especially with teams that have pretty secure playoff positions like the Suns and Grizzlies who might start their usual guys but still not give them full minutes. The teams fighting for those 7-10 seeds in each conference and a spot in the play-in tournament are where we have the safest expected minutes as every game remaining is basically a playoff game for them. In the West the Pelicans, Spurs, and Lakers are still fighting for the 9 and 10 seed with the Lakers in a must-win situation today. In the East the final 10 teams are set but there is still room for seed improvement for pretty much everyone. The Kings, Trail Blazers, Thunder, Rockets, Knicks, Wizards, Pacers, Pistons, and Magic are eliminated from the playoffs and all but the Knicks and Pistons play today so what they do with their minutes and rotations is anyone’s guess and we can’t be surprised if we get burned by anyone on those teams not getting their usual minutes.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Projections Preview – Tuesday, April 5th
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
In the first window of games (7-7:30) on NBA Starting Lineups the 76ers, Cavs, Hornets, Rockets, and Hawks look to have their same guys as last game while Toronto has a chance to get OG Anunoby back from his one-game absence. The Pacers have shut Duarte down for the season and we’re assuming Brogdon as well as we won’t project him until he actually plays again but they could get T.J. McConnell back in the mix but don’t expect him to get any DFS relevant minutes. The Magic remain without Wendell Carter so look for Chuma Okeke to continue to start while Jalen Suggs has a chance to return from his long absence as well as Franz Wagner from his one-game absence. Cole Anthony is now out so Hampton, Fultz, and Cannady will all help cover the PG spot while Schofield and Harris are out as well. The Nets missed both Seth Curry and Bruce Brown last game but will get back Brown today while Goran Dragic remains out in health and safety protocols along with Curry (ankle). Miami will get Jimmy Butler back after missing last game but currently have 6 guys questionable so they could have a lot of moving pieces later today.
The next window (8-9PM) of games sees the Wizards, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, Thunder, Bucks, Bulls, Nuggets, and Jazz with their usual lineups of late while the Grizzlies should have everyone available except Dillon Brooks (and Morant of course) with Ziaire Williams likely to start for him. The biggest guy missing in this window is Dejounte Murray still out with an illness so look for Tre Jones to continue to start and be a top value play today.
The last two games of the night have the Pelicans and Kings projected to have their usual starters of late while the Suns should have everyone available but again I’m not feeling too comfortable using any of their starters as big favorites with nothing to play for. The Lakers have to win tonight to have any shot at the playoffs but will have to do it without LeBron James who is out with his ankle injury so look for Malik Monk to start for him with Westbrook and Davis carrying the offense.
Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Anthony Davis and LeBron James stand out in The Situation Room but I would be shocked if either sat in today’s must-win game. If either or both somehow sit then Russell Westbrook gets a nice usage bump while Bradley, Howard, Monk, Anthony, and Johnson will all have to step up and try to save the season.
UPDATE: LeBron James is OUT, Anthony Davis is IN
In the game right before the Lakers Jonas Valanciunas is iffy with right ankle soreness but again I would be shocked if he didn’t play as they are still looking to hold on to the 9 seed and Jo-Val played through his last Q tag. If he does sit then Hayes, Nance, and Hernangomez will all help cover his minutes while McCollum and Ingram get usage bumps and will carry the offense.
UPDATE: Valanciunas is OUT
The Heat have 6 guys questionable but with Butler and Adebayo available I’m not putting too much stock unless like 3+ of these Q guys sit. Kyle Lowry is the biggest questionable tag as Herro would likely start for him and Strus would be a better value play but again it would take Lowry plus a few of the other Q guys out for this to move the needle much on the Heat in DFS.
UPDATE: Lowry, Morris and Dedmon are OUT. Martin, Vincent, Tucker are IN.
Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, and Admiral Schofield are all Q for Orlando so we could be looking at some potential value options in RJ Hampton, Devin Cannady, and Ignas Brazdeikis. It would take both Anthony and Suggs out for me to consider Cannady or Hampton while Brazdeikis would likely start for Wagner and see decent minutes especially if Schofield also sits.
UPDATE: Anthony, Schofield, and Harris are OUT. Wagner and Suggs are IN.
Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari are Q for Atlanta with Huerter and Wright getting the biggest bumps if Bogdan sits and Luwawu-Cabarrot would become a more appealing value play if Gallinari sits. Indiana has Brogdon “questionable” but we’re leaning doubtful while Goga Bitadze and T.J. McConnell are Q with Bitadze’s absence having some DFS relevancy as Terry Taylor and Oshae Brissett would be more appealing plays if he sits. OG Anunoby is Q for Toronto and his absence would likely put Birch with the starters and the other starters getting slight usage bumps.
UPDATE: Brogdon & Bitadze are OUT, McConnell is IN. Anunoby is OUT. Bogdanovic is IN, Gallinari is OUT
Zach LaVine is now questionable with left knee soreness so DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic would get nice usage bumps if he sits while Dosunmu, Caruso, and White would all be more appealing value plays too.
UPDATE: LaVine is OUT
Patrick Beverley and Jaden McDaniels are both Q now with Malik Beasley benefiting the most if Beverley sits while Vanderbilt and Prince would continue to get McDaniels minutes if he remains out.
UPDATE: Beverley is OUT, McDaniels is IN
Brandon Williams was added as questionable at 1:30PM EST and if out Kris Dunn would likely start and be a top play at $4,800 on both sites.
UPDATE: Williams is OUT
Jeff Green is also Q now and if out JaMychal Green and Davon Reed would absorb most of his minutes.
UPDATE: Jeff Green is OUT
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Looking at FanDuel we see Tre Jones standing out as the clear top value play today looking at 30+ minutes as the starter for a way too cheap $3,700. Greg Brown is also just $3,700 and is looking like a lock value play as well in a great matchup with OKC likely to see 27-30 minutes. It’s still a mystery why Caris LeVert is under $5,500 but we have to keep using him at this price ($5,400) given he’s seeing 35+ minutes and has easy 40+ FP upside. Minnesota has a few guys looking a bit too cheap in DAngelo Russell ($5,300), Anthony Edwards ($7,000), and Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,300) in a nice matchup with Washington so I will likely have at least one of them depending on positional needs today. There is some risk in the last game of the night but assuming Anthony Davis plays I think he is way underpriced at $7,600 especially since he’s seen 36 and 34 minutes in his first games back and would likely see at least that many minutes today with the season on the line (and LeBron is now out). Damian Jones ($5,500) price has barely budged after dropping over 50 FP in two of his last three games so he’s looking like a great play along with his teammate Davion Mitchell who at $7,200 is still too cheap for the 39+ MPG he’s been seeing. Other guys I’m liking on FanDuel include Alperen Sengun ($5,800), Devin Vassell ($5,300), Harrison Barnes ($5,100), Monte Morris ($4,800), Rui Hachimura ($4,500), and Garrison Mathews ($3,600).
DraftKings also has Tre Jones ($4,000) way too cheap as the clear top value play while Greg Brown ($4,400) is still in play for me there though not as appealing as his FD price. DK has apparently been watching Caris LeVert lately and has him up to $7,000 so he likely won’t make the cut for me there. The Minnesota big 3 are also priced higher than FD and likely won’t be in play for me on DK outside of possibly Anthony Edwards ($7,500). Garrison Mathews is dirt cheap at $3,600 and if you need an extreme salary saver on either site you could do much worse than him as he should see 25+ minutes. I like Max Strus for $4,300 as he should continue to start and could be looking at major minutes if any of the questionable Heat guards sit out and should still be a fine source of salary relief even if all the Heat guys play. Other DK value options to consider include Taurean Prince ($3,700), Kris Dunn ($4,800), Ayo Dosunmu ($4,000), Rui Hachimura ($4,800), and Terry Taylor ($4,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn