NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/6/2022
Everyone had Zavier Simpson and Georgios Kalaitzakis starting and playing over 40 minutes for OKC yesterday right? Well we get to play Thunder minutes roulette again tonight and their game is two hours after lock……yay! There’s only six games today but it should still be a pretty wild slate with seven of the twelve teams on a back-to-back and the very likely scenario of Utah and Phoenix resting most if not all of their starters. Make sure to stay on top of news and leave yourself some swap options as the last couple games of the night should have a lot of the value today.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Projections Preview – Wednesday, April 6th
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
We should see some big changes on NBA Starting Lineups as we get some of these injury reports from teams on a b2b and I will update this part as we learn more but for now there’s still a few things to note.
The Pistons will get back Cade Cunningham from his one-game absence but will be without Kelly Olynyk (rest), Rodney McGruder (hip), Cory Joseph (back), and Marvin Bagley (hip) while Grant and Diallo remain out for the year. Killian Hayes and Isaiah Livers should continue to start while Braxton Key and Carsen Edwards will see solid minutes off the bench.
Brooklyn will get Seth Curry back while James Johnson and Goran Dragic are still out – Chicago should get Zach LaVine back after resting the front end of the b2b yesterday while Alex Caruso is likely out with a back contusion which could move White or Williams with the starters – and Atlanta will be looking to get Danilo Gallinari back after missing the last game but Lou Williams will be out.
The Mavs, Wizards, Celtics, and Clippers should have their same starters as their last game with some minor bench news in Maxi Kleber still out, Burke/Pinson available, and Brandon Boston off the injury report and likely available for LAC. Mitchell Robinson is now out for the Knicks so Sims and Gibson will handle the C spot tonight. Normall Powell is also on track to return for LAC and he could start right away.
For now we’re projecting the same starters for OKC as yesterday but they could literally start five different guys so make sure to keep checking their projected lineup as we hear any inkling of what they might do tonight. Utah will be without Conley and Mitchell so Jordan Clarkson should see big minutes even if he doesn’t end up starting while Danuel House is a likely candidate to start too. The Suns will be without Booker, Paul, Crowder and Ayton so look for Payne, Shamet, Johnson, and McGee to start alongside Bridges tonight.
Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
For now in The Situation Room we’re considering all the Suns starters questionable at best and even if any of them do play we can’t expect big minutes as they have literally nothing to play for and are on a b2b. Payne, Shamet, Johnson, Craig, and McGee should all be in play depending on your positional needs and their relative prices on each site assuming most or all of the starters end up out although some of those five guys could even be rested too as they are important playoff pieces that could use the rest.
UPDATE: Paul, Booker, Crowder, and Ayton are OUT
The same can be said for Utah as they have the easiest matchup possible against OKC and on the b2b shouldn’t have to push any of their main guys. Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell have been ruled out so Jordan Clarkson should see 35+ minutes as the top guard available and is way too cheap for his expected role today. The other Jazz starters look to be available but there is some risk they don’t get full minutes or this game turns in to a blowout.
Danilo Gallinari, and James Johnson missed last game and for now are likely Q so look for Luwawu-Cabarrot and Hunter to absorb most of Gallinari’s minutes if out and Edwards/Aldridge to handle Johnson’s minutes if he’s out . Quentin Grimes and Miles McBride are questionable and if either end up out their minutes would be just be absorbed by Burks, Fournier, Barrett, Quickley, and Arcidiacono. Bogdan Bogdanovic is also Q now and his absence would give more minutes to Huerter and Wright.
UPDATE: James Johnson is OUT
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
My favorite play on FanDuel right now is Jordan Clarkson at $5,300 as he should see 30+ minutes with Conley and Mitchell out. Rui Hachimura is also looking like a very solid play at $4,800 although he did play over 37 minutes yesterday so he could be a bit limited on the b2b but for his price and the 30+ FP upside he’s shown in three of his last four games I think he’s a great all-around play. His teammate Ish Smith is also projecting very well at $4,400 as he’s gone over 20 FP in each of his last five games including two games over 30 FP. He’s coming off the bench but is seeing 9+ more minutes than the starter Satoransky and depending on what other value opens up today he should be in consideration for now. Another solid option is Obi Toppin at $5,500 as he should see 30+ minutes and has put up over 32 FP in each of his last two games so with all the uncertainty today I like having a few guys with safe minutes floors and high ceilings like Toppin. Assuming Zavier Simpson ($4,700) and Jaylen Hoard ($4,500) start again they will likely make my main build as they are just too cheap for anyone with a chance to see over 40 minutes. Other guys I like on FanDuel currently include Dwight Powell ($4,900), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,800), DeAndre Hunter ($4,600), Isaiah Livers ($5,000), and Braxton Key ($4,900).
UPDATE: For the Suns I like Cameron Payne ($4,900), JaVale McGee ($3,500), Cameron Johnson ($4,800), and Landry Shamet ($3,900) in that order depending on your positional needs
I will definitely be using at least two OKC guys on DraftKings as Zavier Simpson is just $3,000 and Jaylen Hoard at $5,000 is still too cheap assuming both start again tonight. Georgios Kalaitzakis is also minimum price and if he’s active (limped off floor yesterday) and starting he’ll be in play as well. Jordan Clarkson is also a lock for me at $5,400 while Rui Hachimura ($5,500) and Ish Smith ($4,800) are a bit more expensive than FD but could still be in play depending how other news shakes out. One guy I like a lot more on DK than FD is Carsen Edwards at $3,500 which is almost $2k cheaper than his FD price. Detroit should have 10 available tonight but are in full tank mode giving Edwards over 30 minutes last game which he turned in to almost 35 FP. At his price and the potential of him seeing 30+ minutes I think he has to be in consideration unless we get crazy other value options today. Livers ($4,800) and Key ($4,300) are also in play as well while Killian Hayes ($5,600) is a bit too expensive for me but he has shown massive upside scoring over 60 FP two games ago.
UPDATE: For the Suns I like Cameron Payne ($5,000), JaVale McGee ($4,200), Landry Shamet ($3,500), and Cameron Johnson ($4,700) in that order depending on your positional needs. Also Melvin Frazier signed a 2-way contract with OKC and is minimum price on DK tonight so he could get big minutes.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate. Some other DK guys I’m liking include Patrick Williams ($3,500), Bruce Brown ($5,300), and Daniel Gafford ($4,000) with likely plenty of more value plays opening up as we get the Jazz and Suns injury reports later.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn