NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
As you can see in the picture above, Jayson Tatum is going to be a very popular play today. Not only is it his birthday, but Jaylen Brown is out and the Celtics are at home against Memphis. It’s about as high an upside spot one can imagine for Tatum, so just assume your opponents will have him in their lineups and fade at your own risk. Moving on.
We have a lot of interesting matchups on today’s seven-game slate and some big injury news to follow that could change the makeup of the slate in an instant. Two teams are on a back-to-back in the Kings and Heat and there’s some fun stories and matchups including Trey Lyles in San Antonio, Doncic vs. Curry, and an LA vs. LA matchup to end the night where the red-hot Ivica Zubac gets a shot at a little revenge on the Lakers.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
If it wasn’t for the Tatum show the biggest headline today on NBA Starting Lineups would be the return of Kevin Durant at home against Miami where Kyrie Irving still can’t play. With Harden traded away and Irving ineligible to play Durant would usually be the top play of the day, but there is the potential for some kind of minutes limit in his first game back after a long absence. Keep an eye out for any news on a restriction, but if we get word there is none then it’ll be very tempting to jam Durant and Tatum in everywhere you can. In that same game Lowry remains out so look for Gabe Vincent to continue to start.
With Jaylen Brown out we’re projecting Derrick White to join the starting five and he should be a solid play along with Marcus Smart unless Tatum decides to go for 100 FP and not share a little of Brown’s missing usage. The Celtics could mix it up and go with Payton Pritchard at PG or start Grant Williams with Smart at PG or even Aaron Nesmith so hopefully we get that starting lineup before the 7PM EST lock as that game starts 30 minutes after lock.
Toronto is another lineup that would be great to know before lock as Fred VanVleet has a chance to be in it while OG Anunoby remains out. If VanVleet ends up out look for Malachi Flynn to draw another start and be a very chalky play on Draftkings but much lesser owned on Fanduel where he’s priced $2k higher.
Klay Thompson said he’ll play today, so look for him to return and start which both helps and hurts Curry as his usage takes a hit, but there’s less focus on him defensively but overall great news for the Warriors’ chances at a W. Lastly the Lakers lineup is anyone’s guess as they went back to Malik Monk and Stanley Johnson starting last game and now Avery Bradley has a chance to return to make it even more crowded. Regardless who starts it’s hard to trust any Laker not named James, Westbrook, or Anthony at the moment.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Hey look LeBron James is questionable again in The Situation Room. He’s probably more likely to play than not to just based on all the previous times he’s been questionable and ended up playing, but there is at least SOME chance LeBron sits, so just make sure to have late swap plans if you use him as it is the only game after 8:30pm EST tonight. Westbrook and Anthony would see a big spike in ownership for people with space to late-swap if James sits.
The biggest questionable tag currently is Trae Young who is dealing with a left ankle sprain. It’s the first game of the night, so at least we will know his status before lock and if he is ruled out look for Delon Wright to start at PG and be a top value play. Running a CourtIQ with Young and Collins off the floor we see Danilo Gallinari with a team high 31% usage rate which is a +13% increase and he scores an additional .42 FPPM. At around $5,000 on both FD and DK he would be an excellent source of salary relief. Kevin Huerter also sees a big usage bump with a +12.5% rate increase and would be another solid value play. De’Andre Hunter would also be in play for me as he is super cheap at around $4,500 on both sites and we’d know he’d see big minutes. It’s going to be tempting to use four Hawks if Young gets ruled out, but my priority ranking is Gallinari—>Wright—>Huerter—>Hunter.
The other biggest questionable tag is Jimmy Butler dealing with some big toe irritation on the back-to-back. With Lowry already out this would vault Bam Adebayo to a clear top play of the slate while Gabe Vincent would be even more of a smash value play. Tyler Herro would also get a big ownership bump having to carry a lot more of the offense and is priced very reasonably around $6.3k on both sites. P.J. Tucker is also questionable now so hopefully we get this Heat starting lineup before lock as there will be serious DFS implications so make sure to monitor them right up to lock.
Another big questionable tag at the moment is Fred VanVleet who was Q last game and ended up sitting. As mentioned earlier if VanVleet gets ruled out Malachi Flynn becomes a top play on DK and Trent, Siakam, and Barnes become much more appealing plays but if VanVleet plays then all the Raptors are hard to trust for ceiling games.
UPDATE: Fred VanVleet is OUT. Malachi Flynn is an excellent play on Draftkings ($4,200) but I’m not liking his $6,200 price on Fanduel. Barnes and Siakam will carry most of the offense once again.
UPDATE: Jimmy Butler and P.J. Tucker are OUT. Gabe Vincent is a smash play for his price while Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are excellent plays that will carry a lot of the offense.
UPDATE: Trae Young is IN so Wright becomes irrelevant and Gallinari/Huerter/Hunter become slightly less appealing but are still all decent value plays.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with FanDuel who has tightened up their pricing a bit compared to DraftKings there are still a few names looking like very solid p/$ plays. I liked Anunoby for $4,700 but he has since been ruled out so the only other Raptor whose price I like on FD today is Scottie Barnes which I would be more inclined to use if VanVleet sits. As mentioned in the situation room section above the Hawks are going to be popular if Trae Young sits, but even if Young plays I still really like the price of Danilo Gallinari ($5,000) and De’Andre Hunter ($4,400) on FanDuel and both can help you fit in Jayson Tatum and at least another stud or two. Gabe Vincent ($4,900) is also still a great price with Lowry still out as he’s seen over 30 minutes the last couple games and has a great chance to match yesterday’s performance of 36+ FP. Other guys I’m looking at with solid p/$ projections are Marcus Smart, Kevon Looney, Reggie Jackson, Derrick White, and Carmelo Anthony.
On DraftKings Gabe Vincent is my top value play with Lowry out as he is just $4,500 and has a very safe role when he starts. As mentioned earlier if VanVleet gets ruled out Malachi Flynn will join Vincent as another must play value at $4,200. An interesting name today with a great price is Trey Lyles at just $4,000. I talked up Lyles yesterday and he only put up 11 FP in 20 minutes as the Kings got blown out by New Orleans which wasn’t terrible for his minimum price but still not great at all. I expect his ownership to take a big dive today with recency bias, but if Lyles starts again and that game can stay closer with San Antonio then I like him for that price with the hopes he can find a way to 20+ FP. Gallinari and Hunter are both in play for me as well on DK regardless of Young’s status and Huerter will be too if Young gets ruled out. Other cheap to mid-range guys I’m considering on DK include Jeremy Lamb, Kevon Looney, Isaiah Stewart, Devin Vassell, and Harrison Barnes.
UPDATE: Fred VanVleet is OUT. Malachi Flynn is an excellent play on Draftkings ($4,200) but I’m not liking his $6,200 price on Fanduel. Barnes and Siakam will carry most of the offense once again.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day. The best pt/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn