NBA DFS: Top DraftKings and FanDuel Picks - Tuesday, February 8th
Hello Grinders, we have a loaded 10-game slate on this Tuesday night. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools, which you can access here. Let’s dive in.
NBA DFS, DraftKings Picks
Luka Doncic – It’s hard not to love Luka Doncic on this slate as one of the top spend-up options. He’s coming off a bit of a disappointing performance where he finished with just 53.5 DraftKings points against Trae Young and the Hawks, but note that he did all his damage in just 28 minutes. Doncic struggled with his shot, shooting just 6-for-17 from the field, yet he was still able to pull of a triple-double. Doncic has now scored at least 53 DraftKings points in six straight games and the biggest appeal is that without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway, the usage all goes to him. The RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool shows that when both Porzingis and Hardaway have been off the court this season, Doncic has owned a 39.2% usage rate and has averaged 1.69 fantasy points per minute. He’s an elite DraftKings pick in all formats.
Kevin Porter – The DraftKings pricing algorithm seems to continually hate Porter for some reason, as his price continues to drop faster than Facebook stock. Porter dealt with an illness two games ago and missed the entire second half, finishing with just 11 minutes of playing time. As a result, he saw his price drop to $5,700 last game, a season-low on DraftKings. He proceeded to play through his illness and finish with 33 minutes and 27 DraftKings points. Even though he’s no longer on the injury report, DraftKings lowered his price once again to $5,600. The additional appeal here is that teammate Eric Gordon remains questionable, and should he miss the game, it would open up even more usage for Porter to soak up. Porter’s price is so low now that he opens up the slate as a Top-3 option if you sort by the RotoGrinders Smash Percentage, which is a calculation a player is expected to exceeded his salary implied GPP threshold based on his price. If you’re curious to see the who the other two players are in relation to Porter, you can find all the information with RotoGrinders Premium access.
Alperen Sengun – Another DraftKings pick to consider on this slate is Porter’s teammate, Alperen Sengun. Sengun has been a bit of an enigma this season as he’s produced when given the playing time. The problem is that he just hasn’t gotten much playing time as a rookie. This season, he’s averaged 1.14 fantasy points per minute, but has only averaged 18 minutes per game. Sengun finally got a start last game against the Pelicans, finishing with 25 DraftKings points over 25 minutes. Tonight, Sengun and the Rockets once again face those same Pelicans and the RotoGrinders projection team is assuming Sengun remains in the starting lineup. If he does start, Sengun offers appeal at his $4,500 price tag because there will be more upside for minutes. His minutes have usually been capped as he’s typically been playing backup center minutes, but he’s more recently been seeing time alongside Christian Wood at the power forward position. Given his affordable price tag and his dual eligibility between the PF and C positions, Sengun is a fine salary relief option if he’s deemed a starter again tonight.
All The Blazers – I somewhat write this in jest but in all seriousness, the Blazers are going to all be elite punt plays on DraftKings. They likely have just nine active players tonight after their trade of C.J. McCollum, Larry Nance and Tony Snell to the Pelicans. Anfernee Simons is $7,000 and Jusuf Nurkic is $8,500, so perhaps they are trickier to fit in, but all the usage will go to them. After those two, everyone is priced at $3,500 on less, meaning you can get three Blazers starters if you want at near minimum price. This is going to set up as a stars-and-scrub type slate on DraftKings, with the Blazers’ value leading the way.
NBA DFS, FanDuel Plays
Brandon Ingram – Ingram has much more appeal on FanDuel at a $7,800 price point compared to his price of $9,200 on DraftKings. In fact among all Small Forwards on FanDuel, Ingram carries the highest RG Value score, which is a calculation of a player’s implied points over their implied value threshold. In other words, Ingram is just too cheap on FanDuel relative to his projection. Ingram recently missed five games due to injuries but appears to be over that, as he’s now played 32, 38 and 35 minutes in his last three games back. He’s coming off a monster 62.6 FanDuel point performance against the Rockets over the weekend and now gets to feast on them again. The Rockets have been a hot mess this season, ranking dead last in Defensive Efficiency. This is the main reason why they’re allowing opponents to score 117 points per game this season, also most in the league. Ingram is going to be a priority for me on FanDuel tonight, and he’s my favorite pick on that site to open the day.
Dwight Powell – Powell offers salary relief on FanDuel where he’s just $4,600 and carries both PF and C eligibility. The main appeal with Powell is that he continues to see extended minutes as a starter for the short-handed Mavericks, who will be without Kristaps Porzingis, Maxi Kleber and Tim Hardaway tonight. Looking at his season-long numbers, Powell has only averaged 21.9 minutes per game this season as a starter. With all their injuries, that has changed recently. In three games this February, Powell’s average has shot up to 27.7 minutes per game. And then just looking at his last two starts, Powell has played 34 and 36 minutes. He’s only averaged 0.79 fantasy points per minute this season, so he’s not an amazing per-minute producer, but that number does shoot up to 0.95 fantasy points per minute when you take all of Porzingis/Kleber/Hardaway off the court using the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool. Given his price tag and expected minutes here against the Pistons, there is upside at his FanDuel price tag.
Update – Maxi Kleber has been upgraded from Out to Probable, making Powell a much less appealing option now.
Justise Winslow – It was announced this morning that the Pelicans completed a trade to send Josh Hart, Tomas Satoransky, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Didi Louzada and draft picks to the Blazers for CJ McCollum, Larry Nance and Tony Snell. It’s very unlikely these players suit up for their new teams tonight, which is going to open up value for us to target. One of those value pieces is Justise Winslow, who we’re expecting to start for the short-handed Blazers. Assuming none of the newly traded players suit up tonight, the Blazers would be left with eight players: Anfernee Simons, CJ Elleby, Ben McLemore, Dennis Smith, Greg Brown, Keljin Blevins, Trendon Watford, Jusuf Nurkic and Justise Winslow. At just $4,500, Winslow offers a ton of salary relief if he starts and could push for 30+ minutes out of necessity for his new team.
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