Married to the Market - NBA Futures Betting and Strategy
The Lakers started Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Troy Brown on Monday. They just need Raul Neto and Garrison Mathews to complete their West Coast Wizards journey.
Backed the Bulls to make the playoffs last week and they immediately lost to Charlotte. Cool cool cool.
Each section might not yield a bet every week, but ideally there’s actionable info in there to help readers gauge the market.
Something Old
The Lifeless Trade Deadline
This section will be a stagnant market due for a shake-up.
There have been exactly ZERO trades since last week’s article. The only news was Pistons’ and Pacers’ brass stating Bojan Bogdanovic and Myles Turner won’t be traded, respectively.
As sellers get desperate, more buyers will emerge. Particularly teams who we might not think have the assets to make a groundbreaking move.
Reaction – Miami stands out as a team on the rise that could jump into the trade market. They’ve won 8-of-11 and could vault into serious contender territory with one move (i.e. upgrading the Kyle Lowry spot). +2000 on BetMGM to win the East.
Something New
Joel Embiid as an MVP Favorite
This section will highlight risers/fallers. Could be a team, player, entire market, etc.
Embiid’s latest scoring explosion (against co-favorite Nikola Jokic) has him as low as +210 to win MVP. He and Jokic have separated themselves up top, with Luka Doncic on the periphery (+350 on Caesars) and no one else shorter than 10-to-1.
Reaction – We’re on Embiid already but certainly have no issue betting against his health. Jayson Tatum (+1300 on FanDuel) is intriguing from a health perspective. Only three missed games so far, could volume his way back into the conversation.
Something Measured
Orlando vs. 2022 NBA Finals Teams
This section will be an interesting/unique/fun futures-related stat or trend.
The Magic beat Boston again last week and are now 5-1 against last year’s NBA Finals teams (3-1 vs. the Celtics, 2-0 vs. the Warriors).
It feels a year (or three) early, but would be fascinating to see Orlando dive into the trade market and add a couple veterans to this group. They’re a .500 team in January.
Reaction – Caesars has Orlando at +1000 to make the playoffs. Not worth it just yet, just something to keep on the radar IF the Magic get frisky next week.
Something Eww
The Pelicans’ Injury Report
This section will be a market that’s uncertain, mispriced or just generally one to avoid.
New Orleans is the new “just wait until THAT squad is healthy!” team. It’s never going to happen and it’s depressing.
Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson have played 12 games together this year. 12!! That’s 23% of the season, a percentage that will keep going down with Zion still out.
Reaction – The Pelicans have dropped nine straight and plummeted to 10th in the West. Oklahoma City is just one game back and are looking interesting at +450 to make the playoffs on DraftKings.