NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Note: Today’s Grind Down will focus on the DFBBC Final Tonight. Check out more punt plays and full details on FanDuel’s basketball championship in our DFBBC Preview Article
Denver at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -9, 200.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Miller-Faried-Mozgov
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Denver
Games like this are always hard to predict, when both teams play such differing paces. Denver wants to push the tempo but Memphis is one of the best in the league at forcing opponents to play to their style, which is why I’d lean towards this game being lower scoring and Denver’s weapons struggling mightily. The only soft spot in terms of defense vs. position stats for Memphis has been against the SG slot over the last 15 days, where they rank 19th.
- Timofey Mozgov – The only reason I’d consider Mozgov tonight is because he had 33 FP against Memphis on Monday and he’s still really cheap on FD for the DFBBC tonight at $4600. I wouldn’t recommend him in any H2H or 50/50 game, because the matchup is really tough on paper and this game is in Memphis, but for a GPP he has solid appeal.
Memphis
I typically try to avoid anyone on Memphis, but the Nuggets play close to no defense so there could be some options here who are outside-the-box for tonight’s DFBBC. Denver ranks no better than 18th against every position for both the season and last 15 days splits. Their biggest weakness though has been defending the paint, where injuries have forced Denver to log significant minutes for Mozgov, Arthur and Randolph of late. The Randolph on the other side is licking his chops.
- Zach Randolph – DEN is 28th on the year against PFs and Randolph is averaging 40 FPPG in 3 games against this season. On Monday these teams played and ZBO had 20 points and 11 rebounds, giving him nice upside for tonight’s DFBBC.
Orlando at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -10, 193 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harkless-O’Quinn-Vucevic
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
Orlando
Orlando will have their hands full against Charlotte on Friday considering the Bobcats rank 7th in the NBA in points allowed over their last 10 games. Orlando has also dropped 7 of their last 9 and the only positive matchup in terms of DvP is for Jameer Nelson against Kemba. Nelson’s upside has been severely limited all season long, including since returning from injury where he hasn’t topped 23 FP in 3 games. Unfortunately Nelson’s return has also put a damper on the production of rookie Victor Oladipo, as he too hasn’t topped 23 FP in those three games.
- Nikola Vucevic – Vuc is always a tremendous GPP play, because he tends to be low owned and has massive upside. Charlotte won’t have McBob tonight and believe it or not he does a lot to help their post defense because Al Jefferson on his own is a sieve. Vuc also had 55 FPs against the Bobcats a week ago today.
Charlotte
The Bobcats are on pace to make the NBA Playoffs! Look out world, hell has frozen over. But in all seriousness the push this team has made behind Big Al and Kemba has been really impressive. Tonight their daily fantasy appeal though comes with some risk since there’s serious blowout potential here. The other big news of note is that Josh McRoberts won’t play, leaving Cody Zeller as a nice punt play filling in as the starter.
- Cody Zeller – At $3600, Cody Zeller could be a terrific value play for the DFBBC tonight. He could also be a terrific fade though. Let me explain. If it looks like value will be somewhat limited and Zeller is going to be extremely popular, I’d consider fading him since he’s foul prone and could easily drop an absolute dud.
Indiana at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -1, 186 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Vasquez-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Indiana
This game is going to be a challenge to figure out. Typically I like to target games with tight spreads, but when the O/U is just 186 I have my rightful concerns. The Pacers are also a team that is struggling heavily offensively. Over the last 10 games, no team is averaging less points per game than the Pacers. Indiana has averaged an absurd 84 PPG in that span and Toronto’s defense isn’t perfect, but it’s better than teams like Cleveland and Detroit who have given Indiana fits in that span.
Toronto
For Toronto, the probable absence of Kyle Lowry leaves Greivis Vasquez as a prime bargain option tonight. The decision will likely come down to whether you want to spend less on Greivis in a tough matchup or more on McCallum in a much better matchup. The obvious move is McCallum, but if you want to beat the field tonight in the DFBBC you should try and zig when they zag at a couple of positions. Greivis could be a nice zig that pays off, especially when Indiana’s biggest defensive weakness is against the PG slot.
- Greivis Vasquez – After my entire write up talked about him, there’s no surprise he’s the guy I’m targeting in this game. I love his upside and his ability to stuff the stat sheet. I wouldn’t recommend him in cash games because he’s still facing a great defensive team, but for tournaments and at $4100 on FanDuel he’s solid.
Cleveland at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4, 201 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Antic
Cleveland
Cleveland has been streaking of late and this game has huge playoff implications. At this juncture in the season, finding teams in meaningful games is essential. Both of these teams need a W tonight and that means you can safely target options on both sides. For Cleveland, they’ll get an Atlanta defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in DvP splits against PGs, PFs and Cs over the last 15 days. They also saw Kyrie Irving return to the lineup on Wednesday and Dion Waiters still managed 32 fantasy points as a starter. Last, Anderson Varejao is doubtful again, leaving Spencer Hawes in a great spot to get added minutes.
- Kyrie Irving – I don’t expect Mike Brown to hold Irving back at all in this one and the Hawks are 29th against PGs over the last 15 days. He has a great price point on FanDuel tonight at $8000 and only needs about 40 FP to reach value.
- Spencer Hawes – Hawes dropped 37 FP on Wednesday without Varejao and his style of play fits well with the bigs of Atlanta who also like to stretch the court. He’s cheap on FanDuel tonight at $5700 and has strong upside, meaning I’d definitely try to fit him into a lineup or two if you’re entering multiples.
Atlanta
On the flip side is Atlanta at home against a similarly porous defense in Cleveland. Backcourt defense specifically has been a concern for Cleveland, as they rank in the bottom 10 in the league over the last 15 days against PGs, SGs and SFs. That leaves nice matchups for Teague, Korver and Carroll who are all expected to play tonight with a healthy Hawks starting five. The final thought on the Hawks tonight is that the Cavs without Anderson Varejao are significantly worse at defending the paint and Paul Millsap might be able to find some breathing room, although I won’t be actively targeting him on such a busy night.
- Jeff Teague – Teague is coming off a 35 FP effort on Wednesday and has a really juicy matchup against the not-so-dynamic backcourt defense of Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. He has nice upside against the Cavs and I really like him as an outside the box play for the DFBBC tonight at $6500
Philadelphia at Boston
- Vegas Line – Boston -10, 207.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bayless-Green-Humphries-Bass
Philadelphia
The Sixers got their win, and have now pretty much just quit on the season. They just got smoked by the Bobcats by 30 at home and while they won’t lose that badly tonight, the effort level they showed on Wednesday was embarrassing. The only positives recently have been the development of MCW and the emergence of Henry Sims. Sims is coming off 26 FPs on Wednesday and he’s seen between 25-33ish minutes in every game over his last ten. MCW has topped 35 FPs in each of his last three games despite admitting mass fatigue in an interview earlier this week.
- Michael Carter-Williams – Without Avery Bradley, the Celtics defense is much more vulnerable to big games from opposing guards. John Wall posted 31 fantasy points in just 28 minutes on Wednesday, and if that game had been remotely competitive he could have been in for a huge day. MCW has that same Wall-esque upside. For $8200, he has the potential to put up 50+ FP and be a difference maker in the DFBBC tonight.
- Henry Sims – There are a lot of value centers I like tonight, so I might save Sims for cash games at $5800 on FanDuel. It’s not a bad price tag, but a guy like Hawes at $5700 has more GPP appeal in my eyes than Sims.
Boston
As a Celtics fan, I can safely say my jaw dropped when I saw that they were ever 9.5 point favorites. The Sixers are bad, but the Celtics aren’t all that much better. Regardless, that’s the case tonight but I’d be shocked if this turned into a true blowout. I expect it to be close throughout and while the Celts might pull away late, don’t expect any of the big time producers to be riding the pine late. The last noteworthy piece for Boston is that Avery Bradley is questionable to play tonight and if he sits then Jerryd Bayless should see more minutes again.
- Rajon Rondo – Rondo is expected to play Friday and sit Saturday, so fire away with him in the DFBBC tonight. He’s reasonably priced at just over $8K and will likely be one of the most popular plays.
- Jared Sullinger – If I had one bullet in the DFBBC tonight, the first player I would put in would be Jared Sullinger. In two games against the Sixers this season, Sully is averaging nearly 50 FPPG. He’s been playing great basketball of late and for $6500 on FanDuel he won’t break the bank.