NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 13th - Page 2
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Brooklyn at Detroit
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett-Lopez
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Brooklyn
I’m a little concerned about a possible blowout here as the Nets are coming off of a major win against the Clippers last night. Something just tells me that they will have a letdown game here. The Pistons are only favored by 6 though so I won’t factor in a blowout in the analysis. The Pistons have been good at defending SG’s, and below average at defending the rest of the positions. While Deron Williams has been playing good, I need to see more than two good games before trusting him in any of my lineups.
- Brook Lopez – I really like the matchup tonight for Lopez. Drummond is thought of as a great defender, but the DvP rankings suggest otherwise. The Pistons are ranked 25th against Centers this season and Lopez is a great scorer down low. He should also have a nice rebound total as Drummond never ventures more than a few feet from the rim.
Detroit
The Pistons are in a similar position in my eyes. They remain a very inconsistent team that makes more sense as GPP plays than they do as cash game plays. They have too much talent in their starting five to predict each of their fantasy values each night. Andre Drummond is underpriced on a few sites though, so use him in cash games on sites like FD and DK. The rest of the starters are nice GPP plays, but will not be in any of my cash games.
Memphis at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -4, 193.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Bayless-Prince-Randolph-Koufos
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Anderson-Smith
Memphis
The Grizzlies are one of the slower paced teams in the league, but Vegas has the total set at 193 points so they must be seeing something that I don’t. I usually tend to trust Vegas in these situations. The Grizzlies have a solid matchup against the Pelicans who have been below average at defending every position except for SF. It’s worth noting that both Tony Allen and Ed Davis will be back for tonight’s game so that ends the run for both Bayless and Leuer as value plays.
- Zach Randolph – I really like the matchup for Z-Bo tonight. He has been their go to guy offensively ever since Gasol went down and I don’t think Ryan Anderson is going to be able to defend him in the post. The Pelicans are ranked 25th against PF’s over the last two weeks with Anderson as the starting PF.
- Kosta Koufos – Koufos has surprised everyone with his play. He’s really stepped in nicely with Gasol out and I expect another big game out of him tonight. He’s finally matchup up with a player that he is as quick as. Koufos should post a strong double-double here.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have a tough matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, but I;m not ruling out the team entirely. Jrue Holiday is a little too pricey for this matchup, Eric Gordon is facing Allen who is one of the best defenders in the league, and Jason Smith is likely to come back down to Earth after his monster game the other night. That leaves us with two options, and I think they could both play well in this matchup.
- Ryan Anderson – While I don’t like his defense, I love his ability to score. I also love his matchup against Zach Randolph. Randolph is going to have an extremely tough time trying to defend Anderson on the perimeter and we could see 5+ three pointers made from Anderson tonight.
- Al-Farouq Aminu – I haven’t been a believer in the numbers that he has been putting up, but I am now. With Davis out, Aminu is playing huge minutes. While he is still very limited offensively, he does so many things on the court that he should easily make value tonight.
L.A.Lakers at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -12, 208.5 Over/Under
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Young-Bryant-Meeks-Williams-Gasol
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers are in a tricky spot tonight. They are double-digit underdogs and will be playing without their starting PG Steve Blake. My thought process here is to avoid the expensive players because the risk of a blowout is just too high. Kobe Bryant is in play on a couple of sites because of his low price, but none of the other Lakers really stand out to me. That said, I do like both Jordan Hill and Jodie Meeks as GPP plays tonight. Both are starting and both could be difference makers tonight.
Oklahoma City
This is a tough one because the matchup is great, but so is the potential for a blowout. I will likely be avoiding Kevin Durant completely just because he would need 4 quarters in order for him to cover his value. Russell Westbrook is a lot cheaper than Durant and could end up with enough fantasy points at the end of three quarters to be worth taking. That said, I think it’s too risky for cash games. Expect a blowout.
Chicago at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Dunleavy-Deng-Boozer-Noah
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Henson
Chicago
These two teams met the other night and it came down to the wire. The Bulls were without Joakim Noah and Luol Deng in that game though and could have both of them back tonight. Noah is expected to play and Deng is listed as a game-time decision. Deng’s health really impacts the value of Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell. If Deng it out again, continue to use these two as solid value plays.
- Joakim Noah – I like Noah for a few reasons, but the obvious one is that the Bucks are ranked dead last against Centers this season. I think it’s safe to say that Noah’s injury was just a flare up and that he should be good to go for tonight’s game. Love the matchup and the upside for Noah tonight.
Milwaukee
The Bucks played surprisingly well against the Bulls the other night thanks to monster games from both John Henson and Brandon Knight. They get to face the Bulls at home this time around and I think we will see a similar type of game that comes down to the wire. Khris Middleton remains a solid value play, but don’t expect too much from him tonight in what should be a defensive battle.
- John Henson – Henson posted a 60-burger against the Bulls the other night and is one of my favorite overall plays tonight. He struggled against the Spurs the other night, but is primed for a bounce back game in this one. I love the upside and the price is still affordable on most sites.
- Brandon Knight – Knight posted 19 points and 10 rebounds against the Bulls the other night and should play well again tonight. He has really been a nice fantasy option ever since taking over the starting PG position. He’s a very cheap play with good upside.
Minnesota at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -9, 208.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Minnesota
These two teams bring back nothing but bad memories. I believe I had three players from this game the last time these two teams met, and for those of you that don’t remember, this was the MANIA in MEXICO. The elevator fire that started a lot of drama in the DFS world. Anyway, this game is in the US so I think we can expect this one to get played.
- Kevin Love – Love is matchup-proof and I think he has a monster game tonight. He has a great track record against the Spurs and should easily top 45 FP’s here. Vegas has the Spurs favored by 9, but I don’t see the Wolves getting blown out.
San Antonio
The matchup for the Spurs is a good one. While Vegas has them as big favorites, I expect the starters from both teams to play full minutes. The Wolves rank 17th or worse against every position except for PF. Kawhi Leonard is in play here, but my two favorite plays are the two Spurs that have been around for what seems like centuries.
- Tony Parker – Parker’s price is pretty fair across the board and he is a steal on DS tonight with a salary of less than $11k. Parker should play well here and I think we can expect a full complement of minutes out of him. 30+ fantasy points is definitely feasible for him tonight.
- Tim Duncan – Even though the Wolves have defended PF’s well, there are expected to be a ton of points scored in this one and Duncan is one of the few players in this price range that could potentially top 35 FP’s. He’s old, but he’s still got it.