NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 20th - Page 2
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Houston at Indiana
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Houston
The Rockets are in another situation where the total of the game is under 200. That doesn’t happen often, but it’s very important to consider when considering the options here. The Pacers are one of the slower paced teams in the league and are one of the best defensive teams in the league. To recap, the Rockets will have less possessions than their season average and those possessions will be against a very tough defense. I think Dwight Howard is a deep GPP play, but other than that, I’m staying away from the Rockets.
Indiana
The Pacers on the other hand are in a great spot. They are facing an extremely fast-paced team in the Rockets which means the Pacers should see a few extra possessions than they are used to. The Rockets have not been good defensively and you can make the case for any of the Pacers’ starters tonight. George Hill makes a sneaky play, I like the upside of Lance Stephenson, and Roy Hibbert could post a double-double. That said, my favorite plays here are Paul George and David West.
- Paul George – George’s price has come down a bit on most sites and he has a fantastic matchup tonight against the Rockets. George is at his best when he can make plays in the open floor and spot up from deep. Look for him to have a big night tonight on both ends of the floor.
- David West – West is never a player that is highly owned. Everyone always seems to find options that they like better than West (myself included). That said, I really like his value tonight against the Rockets who are ranked 25th against PF’s. He should top 30 FP’s here.
Toronto at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -6, 201 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Toronto
The Raptors travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in what will likely be a game that most DFS players avoid. Nothing against either of these teams, but they both have a lot of good players on the roster and a single player or two really stand out here. That said, I think the Raptors are a sneaky play in some of these big tournaments. Kyle Lowry always has great upside and Jonas Valanciunas has a solid matchup as the Mavs are ranked 26th against Centers on the season.
Dallas
The Mavericks are a fast-paced team, but are facing the Raptors who are one of the slower paced teams in the league. The Raptors have really defended PG’s, PF’s, and Centers well this season so I will likely avoid those positions on the Mavs tonight. That leaves us with both Monta Ellis and Shawn Marion. Both of them are in play, but neither really stand out as must plays to me.
Phoenix at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -4.5, 206 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Phoenix
The Suns and Nuggets game is expected to be close and high scoring, two things that we like to see in DFS. The Nuggets have not defended any single position well this season and have really struggled to defend PF’s. Goran Dragic makes a decent play at PG tonight, but I think Eric Bledsoe has a higher upside and he’s around the same price.
- Eric Bledsoe – Bledsoe is always one of my favorite plays if the his price is affordable. He has a high floor and a high upside. He does a little bit of everything on the court and he has a favorable matchup tonight against Denver who has been below average against SG’s this season. Look for Bledsoe to push the tempo and put up big numbers once again. Of the two guards on the Suns, I think Bledsoe is the easy choice.
- Channing Frye – Frye is one of the riskier plays tonight, but it’s a risk that could really pay off. The Nuggets are ranked 29th against PF’s this season and Frye sees major minutes when his shot is falling. He’s one of my favorite GPP plays tonight.
Denver
The Nuggets have a solid matchup tonight against the Suns. This should be a high scoring game. While I still can’t trust any of the Nuggets bigs thanks to their inconsistent minutes, I do like two players a lot in this one.
- Wilson Chandler – Chandler has been given the green light offensively and it has shown in his production. He has over 30 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games and has a great chance to reach that mark again tonight against the Suns.
- Ty Lawson – Lawson has always been a fairly streaky player and he is coming off of back to back 30+ FP performances. He has a great matchup against Dragic tonight at home and I think he keeps it rolling in this one. He is still their best player offensively. UPDATE: Lawson is a GTD
Minnesota at L.A.Lakers
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -6, 210 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Henry-Meeks-Johnson-Hill-Gasol
Minnesota
I mentioned it earlier, but I’ll say it again. How on Earth is the line for this game only at -6? When I first saw this game on the schedule, I figured the Wolves would be double-digit favorites, with or without Kobe playing. But I always like to trust the line over my gut feeling and maybe Vegas sees this as a trap game. If the Lakers can keep this game close, there are great fantasy options all around. The Lakers own the second worst defense in the league and all five starters are in play here. Corey Brewer makes a nice value play, Kevin Martin makes a nice upside play, and Nikola Pekovic is one of my favorite Centers in cash games.
- Ricky Rubio – Factoring in price, Rubio is my favorite play of the night. He is facing a Lakers defense that is giving up the 4th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season. Not only that, but the Lakers don’t have a true PG right now and Rubio should be able to take his man off the dribble anytime he wants to. I’m expecting a 15 point, 12 assist, 6 rebound, and 4 steal performance from him.
- Kevin Love – Love is coming off of an incredible game against the Blazers (hopefully you took him like I told you to) and has another great matchup tonight against the Lakers. He’s the top overall play on the board tonight and could easily post a 30 point, 20 rebound performance. This game all comes down to the Lakers though, if they can’t keep it close, it really hurts the value of the Wolves.
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers just can’t catch a break. Kobe Bryant will be out for at least 6 weeks and that leaves them with no PG. Both Jordan Farmar and Steve Blake are still out so I’m expecting Jodie Meeks and Nick Young to split the PG duties. Vegas expects the Lakers to keep this one close and someone is going to have to score their points. There is value up and down this Lakers lineup. Pau Gasol is in play, Xavier Henry should see a big boost in minutes, Wesley Johnson looks like a nice value play, and Jodie Meeks should see an increase in value if he plays the point.
- Nick Young – As crazy as it sounds, I am going to have a hard time not taking Young tonight. I could legitimately see him top 35 minutes and 20 shot attempts tonight. He is a very streaky shooter, but I’m rolling the dice with him tonight.
- Jordan Hill – Hill is your ultimate risk/reward play tonight. Not only is he prone to foul trouble, but he is facing one of the league’s best players at drawing fouls (Kevin Love). Oh, and did I mention that D’Antoni loves to screw with his minutes? All of that said, Hill has great upside and I think he is going to go on a nice run here in the next few weeks. I have a feeling Hill will be on the winning qualifier teams tonight.