NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-12-27 19:51:14

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Oklahoma City at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -8.5, 199.5 Over/Under
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Tolliver-McRoberts-Jefferson

Oklahoma City

The line in this game is moving and not in the direction that we like to see in DFS. The Thunder are now favored by 9.5 which means there is a great chance that this one could turn into a blowout. Not only that, but the over/under in this game is set at less than 200 points which means Vegas expects the Bobcats slow pace of play to really impact this game.

The slow pace of play means that the Thunder will likely have less possessions than their season average. This means less shots to go around. Factoring in that and the possible blowout, I will not be paying up for either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook tonight. I think Serge Ibaka has some value, but the Bobcats have really defended PF’s well this season.

Charlotte

The Bobcats are big underdogs here and have a very tough matchup against the Thunder. The Thunder have really defended SG’s, SF’s and Centers well this season so that really only leaves us with two options. I don’t mind the matchup for Kemba Walker, but there are too many things going against him in this one. His price has gone up and he could end up sitting out the entire 4th quarter if this game gets ugly. Josh McRoberts should also be avoided, he hasn’t been a viable fantasy option for a few weeks now.

Detroit at Orlando

Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harris-Davis-Vucevic

Detroit

The Pistons and Magic both play at a very similar pace. They both average 96 possessions per 48 minutes which is right around the league average. Vegas has the Pistons favored by 4 and the total for this game set at 203 points. On paper, this should be a great game to target from a fantasy perspective.

The Magic have defended Centers well this season, but have really struggled against the other 4 positions. Even with a solid DvP ranking against him, I don’t think you can rule out Andre Drummond here. His price is very affordable on both FD and DK and he is pretty much matchup proof. Josh Smith is a curious case to me because I don’t think he can keep up this type of production. He will be locked up with Tobias Harris who isn’t a bad defender.

Brandon Jennings – Jennings has really been playing well lately. He’s scored at least 34 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and I think he can top that mark again tonight against Jameer and the Magic.

Greg Monroe – Monroe often flies under the radar because he is really the Pistons’ 4th best fantasy option. He has been hovering at the 25 FP mark over the last couple of weeks, but the above average matchup makes me think that he can top 30 FP’s tonight.

Orlando

The Magic are in a nice spot tonight. The Pistons have not been a great team defensively and the Magic are expected to score over 100 points. The problem with the Magic is that they have a lot of talented players that are all fighting for minutes. A great example of this is Victor Oladipo, only a couple of weeks ago he was playing 40+ minutes per game and now that the Magic are healthy, he is averaging less than 20 minutes.

I think you can safely avoid the guards tonight, but I do like a couple of plays here. Nikola Vucevic has scored over 34 FP’s in 3 of his last 5 games and has a favorable matchup against the Pistons who are ranked 27th against Centers this season.

Tobias Harris – Harris has been one of my favorite plays over the past couple of games and his price has yet to rise to meet his production. He’s played great as a starter and is coming off of a season high 44 minutes. I like the matchup against the Pistons and think he could push for 30 FP’s.

Milwaukee at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -5.5, 194.5 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Butler-Henson-Sanders
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Pierce-Teletovic-Garnett

Milwaukee

The Bucks travel to Brooklyn to take on the ever-struggling Nets. The Bucks are going to get Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova back tonight which is good for their team, but bad for the Bucks’ individual fantasy values. I’m not sure how many minutes we can now expect for John Henson and Khris Middleton. For that reason, I will be avoiding both tonight.

The shooting guard position is also tricky because Drew often ends up going with the hot hand out of Mayo and Giannis. That leaves both of them as sub-par fantasy options in my mind. I think that the Bucks should keep this game competitive, but it’s really hard to predict the fantasy values of anyone other than their PG.

Brandon Knight – Knight has come out of nowhere and has been on an absolute tear over the past couple of weeks. He has averaged over 40 FP’s in his last 4 games and should be able to keep it rolling tonight against the Nets who are ranked 21st against PG’s on the season. His price is still pretty low on a couple of sites.

Brooklyn

The Nets have been an extremely inconsistent team all season long, but all of the injuries have always kept them in the minds of us DFS players. They have a favorable matchup tonight against the Bucks, but it’s hard to trust any of the Bucks DvP rankings because they have had so many different players that make up those rankings.

Deron Williams has been playing much better recently, but he will be in a tough matchup against Knight who is one of the best on ball defenders in the league. I will likely be fading Williams for that reason. I think Mirza Teletovic and Joe Johnson both make sense as value plays here, but they both have somewhat limited upside.

Andray Blatche – Blatche is my favorite Center if you want to punt the position tonight. He has a nice upside and he is playing big minutes with Lopez out. The only problem with Blatche is that the Nets have not been playing well as a team. They do have a nice matchup tonight against the Bucks though so I expect them to play well.

Toronto at New York

Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Shumpert-Smith-Anthony-Chandler

Toronto

The line in this game is a bit confusing to me. Now I know that the Raptors are not a great team, but they are facing a Knicks team that has yet to reach double digit wins. Not only that, but they are likely going to be without both Carmelo Anthony and Raymond Felton. All of that and the Raptors are still only favored by 2 points. For me, that means that we can expect a solid game out of the short-handed Knicks.

The Knicks have been solid defensively this season, but those DvP rankings are hard to trust for tonight’s game because the Knicks will have at least 3 different starters than their lineup over the last couple of weeks. I think DeMar DeRozan is in play here, but I really like the matchup for Kyle Lowry.

Kyle Lowry – Lowry has played well despite numerous trade rumors over the past few weeks. He is averaging over 35 FP’s per game over the last couple of weeks and should have a field day tonight against Beno Udrih who has to be one of the worst defenders that I have seen. Expect him to fill up the stat sheet again tonight.

New York

The Knicks will likely be very short-handed tonight. Felton, Melo, and Prigioni are all expected to sit out tonight’s game which opens up huge minutes at the PG and wing positions. Minutes alone put Beno Udrih, J.R. Smith, and Iman Shumpert in play tonight. I don’t love either of the bigs, but I do think Tyson Chandler has some value on FD if you want to punt the Center position.

The Raptors have really struggled to defend SG’s and SF’s this season which makes sense considering the fact that DeRozan and Ross aren’t great defenders. Like I mentioned above, both Udrih and Shumpert are in play, but J.R. Smith takes the cake as the top play here.

J.R. Smith – Smith played great on Christmas with Melo sidelined and would shoulder the load offensively again tonight if Melo misses this game. It’s a favorable terrific matchup against the Raptors and his price is pretty cheap across the board. The only site to avoid him on would be DS considering his 14k price tag.

Washington at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Minnesota -6, 206 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic

Washington

The Wizards are expected to keep this game close which would really help the fantasy value of both teams. Both of these teams like to push the pace and as long as the Wizards can keep this one within striking distance, there are solid fantasy plays from both teams. The Wolves have not defended any position particularly well this season. Trevor Ariza and Bradley Beal both make nice GPP plays. I will likely be avoiding the bigs here though, Love and Pek are tough customers down low.

John Wall – Wall has a terrific matchup against Rubio tonight. He has a great chance to top 40 FP’s here and I think he will push the tempo and create easy buckets for both himself and his teammates. The only worry here is if the Wolves decide to put either Brewer and/or Mbah a Moute on him. I wouldn’t factor that in too much though.

Minnesota

The Wolves are one of the fastest paced teams in the league. They are averaging over 100 possessions per 48 minutes and have a pretty solid matchup against the Wizards. The Wizards have defended PF’s pretty well this season, but Kevin Love has proven time and time again that he is matchup proof. Consider Love the top overall fantasy option tonight and he’s in play if you can fit a team around him.

Ricky Rubio – I like Rubio because his price is depressed across the board. He’s a player that averages close to 30 FP’s per game and that’s right where I have him projected for tonight. He should push the pace and fill up the stat sheet.

Kevin Martin – Martin is in the same spot as Rubio, his price is depressed across the board. He is one of the better pure scorers on the Wolves and could easily top 20 actual points in this one. The rest of the stats would just be icing on the cake.