NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 21st - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-21 19:59:25

All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article

Memphis at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -4.5, 190 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Bosh-Oden

Memphis

The Grizzlies are going to try to slow this game down and keep the Heat from being able to push the tempo. The total of this game is set at 190 points which is pretty low for a Heat game. As far as the matchup goes, the Heat are ranked 4th or better against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s, but they have struggled against bigs this season. The Heat are the 3rd worst rebounding team (47.2% total rebounding) and are ranked 16th and 25th against PF’s and Centers.

Marc Gasol – If you want a guaranteed 30+ FP’s from your Center tonight, Gasol is a great option. He has been a lock for 30+ for over a month now and he has a very nice matchup against the undersized Heat. Even if the Heat start Oden on him, that’s not a matchup that anyone is scared of. Gasol can also pass and defend and should have a solid all around game tonight.

Miami

The Grizzlies defense has had a few down games lately, but I fully expect the Grizzlies to slow the pace of this one down. If the Heat are going to score 100 points, they are going to have to be extremely efficient offensively. I never like paying up for players in bad matchups and that’s how I see LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. That may change if one of them ends up sitting out tonight, but if all 3 are in the lineup, I will be fading the Heat players.

Denver at Dallas

Vegas Line – Dallas -8, 220 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Denver

This is a terrific game to target tonight. Both of these teams love to push the pace and the total is set at 220 points which is the highest total on the board. Ty Lawson is expected back in the lineup tonight after he missed the last game with a sinus infection. The Mavericks have done a nice job at containing PG’s on the season, but Ricky Rubio got into the lane anytime he wanted against the Mavs the other night and I expect Lawson to do the same tonight. He makes a solid play tonight.

Kenneth Faried – Faried had a quiet game against the Pistons by his standards as he only had 15 points and 8 rebounds. That was still good enough for 30 FP’s though and I am still on the Faried hype train. He has been on fire since the All-Star Break and the Mavs have given up the 3rd most FP’s to PF’s over the last 15 days. Keep taking the MANIMAL!

Dallas

The Mavericks are projected to score 114 points tonight which is by far the highest on the schedule. The Nuggets have been awful defensively this season and are ranked well below average defensively against all five positions on the floor. Jose Calderon makes a nice punt play at PG. Shawn Marion has strung together a few solid games in a row and is still cheap. Monta Ellis makes a great cash game play and should have a big fantasy game if he can get his assist totals up.

Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk has really been quite lately. In his last 6 games, he has only topped 30 FP’s 1 time which is just not good enough at his price. That said, his recent slump has really lowered his price across the industry and I’m taking the bait tonight. The Nuggets are ranked 28th against PF’s this season and Dirk is averaging 24 points and 7 rebounds against them this season.

Detroit at Phoenix

Vegas Line – Phoenix -8.5, 217 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Singler-Smith-Monroe
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee

Detroit

This should be one of the faster paced games tonight. Both teams average at least 97 possessions per game this season and both love to get out and run the floor. Andre Drummond could be back in the lineup tonight, but he is currently listed as a game-time decision so make sure to check the injury news closer to tipoff for an update on his status. Brandon Jennings makes a nice upside play in a GPP tonight. Josh Smith also makes a nice upside play, he may be a little more aggressive tonight after he got thrown out in their last game.

Greg Monroe – Monroe’s value goes up a bit if Drummond is out, but he makes a solid play either way. Monroe has topped 40 FP’s in 5 of his last 7 games and he draws a nice matchup tonight against the Suns.

Phoenix

The Suns have a terrific matchup tonight against the Pistons, but their offense has been tough to predict with Eric Bledsoe back in the lineup. The Pistons are giving up 103.9 points per game this season which is the 4th most in the NBA. Eric Bledsoe would make a terrific play tonight, but he hasn’t played more than 29 minutes in any of his last 4 games. Markieff Morris is my favorite of the Suns bigs, he is always a threat for 30 FP’s.

Goran Dragic – Dragic’s price has taken a big hit across the industry. His production has gone way down with Bledsoe back, but this is a terrific time to buy low on him. This is a terrific as the Pistons have given up the 6th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season.

San Antonio at Sacramento

Vegas Line – San Antonio -8, 208 Over/Under
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins

San Antonio

The Spurs are on the front end of a back to back and have to face the Warriors tomorrow night. You’ve been warned. This could easily be a game where Pop decides to sit a starter or two. I love the matchup against the Kings, but the Spurs are just too risky to trust in cash games with their game against the Warriors tomorrow. If you want to throw a couple of them in some GPP’s, I don’t think that’s a bad idea, but be wary of the Spurs getting Pop’ed.

Sacramento

The Kings are 8 point underdogs tonight against the Spurs in what should be a high scoring game. The Spurs are ranked 9th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season, but have struggled to defend PG’s and Centers. DeMarcus Cousins could be in for a monster game. There aren’t any defenders on the Spurs that will be able to keep Cousins in check. He should be treated as the top Center in play tonight.

Isaiah Thomas – Thomas has been on fire in his last two games as he has scored 44 and 49 FP’s. Thomas is quite a bit cheaper than Wall, Lowry, and Westbrook but has just as much upside. The Spurs are ranked 20th against PG’s this season.

Washington at L.A.Lakers

Vegas Line – Washington -6, 217.5 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Kelly-Gasol

Washington

The final game of the night is between the Wizards and the Lakers. The Lakers are ranked 29th or 30th against all five positions on the floor this season and are the worst rebounding team in the league. Marcin Gortat is questionable for tonight’s game and we likely won’t know his status by the time the first game tips off. It may not be a terrible idea to target Trevor Booker and Drew Gooden because they are decent fantasy options already and would see a nice boost if Gortat sits. Trevor Ariza is also a terrific play, target him heavily on sites where his price is depressed.

John Wall – Wall is the top PG on the board tonight. Even though he has much better splits at home, the matchup is too good to pass up. He will be defended by Marshall and Nash. I will take those matchups for Wall any day of the week. He has the upside to put up 50 FP’s here.

Bradley Beal – Beal is a terrific play tonight. Not only are the Lakers ranked 30th against SG’s this season, but Beal is very affordable across the industry. He has always been a great scorer, but if he can grab some rebounds and dish out some assists tonight, he should be able to top 30 FP’s.

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers will have Steve Nash back for tonight’s game. Yes, you read that right. He will come off the bench and will likely see 15 minutes of playing time or so. While he is not a great fantasy option, he does cut into Kendall Marshall minutes. I’ll likely be avoiding both tonight against the Wizards. The Lakers will be without Wesley Johnson tonight which gives a nice fantasy boost to Jodie Meeks, Kent Bazemore, and Ryan Kelly. All make decent fantasy plays tonight for the right price. Pau Gasol would see a nice fantasy boost if Marcin Gortat sits.