NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 7th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-07 20:54:43

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Detroit at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Minnesota -9, 218.5 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic

Detroit

This game could be one of the best games to target tonight if the Pistons can manage to keep it close. They are 9 point underdogs though and there have been times this season where the Pistons have thrown in the white towel early on in games. This is a solid matchup for the Pistons as the Wolves are giving up 102.3 points per game this season. The Pistons are ranked 6th against Centers this season, but have struggled against the other 4 positions on the floor.

Josh Smith – There are few players in the NBA that have as much upside as Smoove and he’s much cheaper than some of the stud plays. Smith has an excellent matchup against the uptempo Wolves and this style of game fits his play perfectly. If he can be aggressive on the defensive end of the floor and pick up a few blocks and steals, that should jump start his game on the offensive end.

Brandon Jennings – We’ve talked a lot about Jennings’ depressed price tag recently and this may be the night where he finally pays off. He has a great matchup against Rubio and the Wolves and he should finally be able to get things going offensively. I typically use him in GPP’s, but with his cheap price tag, I think you can safely use him in cash games as well.

Minnesota

The Wolves are also in a great spot tonight. The Pistons have fallen apart defensively over the last month or so and are now ranked 17th or worse against all five positions on the floor. Nikola Pekovic makes a decent play at Center tonight, but I’m not a huge fan of taking players that are on minutes restrictions. Kevin Martin price looks awfully tempting on FD tonight. I like his matchup against Singler who has really struggled defensively this season.

Kevin Love – Love should be considered the top overall play tonight. His numbers have not been affected by Pekovic back in the lineup and he has actually started to pass the ball more lately. Love should be a lock for 25 points and 15 rebounds tonight and makes a great stud to build your team around.

Ricky Rubio – Rubio does not have a very high floor, but he does have a high ceiling. I wouldn’t recommend taking him in cash games tonight, but he’s one of the few players in the league that can post close to triple-double type numbers anytime he takes the floor. He is facing a weak Pistons defense that is giving up over 40 FP’s per game to opposing PG’s.

Milwaukee at New Orleans

Vegas Line – New Orleans -8, 201 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Ajinca

Milwaukee

The Bucks are 8 point underdogs tonight against the Pelicans. This is an average matchup at best for the Bucks, but it sounds like Ersan Ilyasova may get suspended which would certainly open things up as far as possible fantasy options. Brandon Knight is worth a look tonight, he has a nice matchup against Roberts and the Pelicans who have surrendered the 5th most FP’s to the PG position over the last 15 days.

John Henson – Henson is only in play if Ilyasova is suspended, but after that brawl against the Kings, I’d be surprised if he didn’t get suspended. We all know the type of upside that Henson provides when he sees extended minutes and he would be the top value play on the board if he gets the start tonight.

New Orleans

The Pelicans are facing a Bucks team that plays at a fairly slow pace, but has one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. The Bucks are giving up 102.1 points per game this season and are ranked 17th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers.

Tyreke Evans – In his last 3 games, he is averaging 24 points, 8 assists, and 8 rebounds. His price has gone up across the industry, but I still think he makes a great play tonight against the Bucks. He’s scored at least 38 FP’s in each of his last 3 games and should be able to top that mark again tonight.

Anthony Davis – Davis bounced back nicely the other night against the Lakers after 2 subpar games in a row. He has a nice matchup tonight against the Bucks who have really struggled to defend the paint all season long. Not only that, but the Bucks are the 6th worst rebounding team in the league. Davis is one of the top PF plays tonight.

Portland at Dallas

Vegas Line – Dallas -3, 217 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Portland

The Blazers and Mavericks game features one of the highest totals of the night. Both of these teams like to push the tempo and both are giving up over 102 points per game. Looking at the Mavs’ DvP rankings, the two positions that you want to target here are SF and PF. Damian Lillard is also worth consideration though, his price has come down on most sites and I don’t mind the matchup against Calderon.

LaMarcus Aldridge – This will be his 4th game back since his injury and I don’t expect him to be on any kind of minutes restriction. Aldridge should be able to take advantage of his mis-match against Dirk in the post and hopefully be able to grab a few extra rebounds in the process.

Nicolas Batum – Batum has been on fire as he has topped 30 FP’s in each of his last 6 games. The upside with Batum is that he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He should play well tonight in an uptempo game against the Mavs.

Dallas

The Mavericks have an excellent matchup tonight against the Blazers who are giving up 102.6 points per game which is the 8th most in the NBA. The Blazers have defended SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s well this season, but I don’t think we can rule out Monta Ellis, Shawn Marion, or Dirk Nowitzki. Jose Calderon offers a nice punt play at SG as the Blazers have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing PG’s this season.

Dirk Nowitzki – In two games against the Blazers this season, Dirk is averaging 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. His price has come down on most sites and I really like the value that he offers tonight. Ignore the DvP ranking and get Dirk in your cash game lineups tonight.

L.A.Lakers at Denver

Vegas Line – Denver -10, 229 Over/Under
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Bazemore-Johnson-Gasol
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov

L.A.Lakers

This game should be a fun one. It has the highest total of the night by far and both of these teams are ranked in the bottom 3 in points allowed per game. While this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, we saw the Clippers starters cover value in only 2 and a half quarters against the Lakers last night. I’m going to treat this as the best game of the night to target and then hope that the Lakers can keep this game within striking distance.

Pau Gasol makes a nice play here, but he is probably the only Lakers’ player that would get benched early if the game turns into a blowout. The other starters would at least get some garbage time play. For that reason, I’m going to use Pau as a GPP only play even though he has a favorable matchup.

Kent Bazemore – Bazemore has been one of the best punt plays over the last two weeks. His price is starting to crawl up into that mid-range, but he still makes a nice play tonight. He is playing 30+ minutes per night and D’Antoni has been given him minutes even in blowouts.

Wesley Johnson – Johnson has been very up and down this season. After topping 33 FP’s in three straight games, he has had back to back games under 20 FP’s. He may be a bit too risky to trust in cash games tonight, but Johnson can really fill up the stat sheet and he should see plenty of minutes tonight against the Nuggets.

Denver

The Nuggets are in a very favorable spot tonight. The Lakers are giving up 107.4 points per game this season and gave up 140 last night to the Clippers. All five starters are definitely in play here. Timofey Mozgov is even worth a look as a punt play at Center. Randy Foye should play well against this Lakers’ defense that has made a habit of leaving players wide open.

Ty Lawson – Lawson has been on fire since coming back from his injury. I could quote all the stats in the world, but we all know how bad this Lakers’ defense is. Look for Lawson to continue his high level of play. He’s a great play on all sites, but close to a must play on DK.

Kenneth Faried – Faried is a great hustle player and those are exactly the type of players that play well against the Lakers. Faried also has some of the best home splits that you will find. He makes a terrific play tonight.

Wilson Chandler – Chandler is finally starting to attack the basket. While he still loves to sit at the 3-point line and jack up 3’s, he is at his best when he attacks the rim. Chandler is only averaging 11 shots per season, but has averaged over 19 shots per game in his last two and Coach Shaw says that he wants Chandler taking that many shots.

Indiana at Houston

Vegas Line – Houston -4, 200 Over/Under
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

Indiana

This game favors the Pacers when you consider the fact that these teams are polar opposites. The Rockets like to push the pace of the game and win with their offense and the Pacers like to slow it down and win with their defense. The Rockets have defended Centers and PG’s well this season thanks to the stellar defense of Howard and Beverley, but they have not defended the SG, SF, or PF positions well. Those are three positions that you should target in this one.

Lance Stephenson – I love taking Stephenson because he has such a high floor. He hasn’t scored less than 25 FP’s in almost a month. Stephenson also has a high ceiling thanks to his ability to rebound and pass the ball. I think he has a big game tonight against the Rockets.

Houston

The Rockets find themselves in a very tough matchup. While players have performed well against the Pacers at times during this season, those performances are few in nature. The Pacers are holding their opponents to a league leading 91.6 points per game and they are ranked 6th or better against all positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. With so many other options, I will be avoiding all Rockets’ players tonight.

Atlanta at Golden State

Vegas Line – Golden State -9, 209 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Scott-Brand
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut

Atlanta

The final game of the night features two teams that don’t mind getting into a track meet. The good news for the Hawks is that Paul Millsap is expected to play after missing a few games. The Hawks have been extremely short-handed down low. With Millsap and Antic both back, I think Elton Brand and Mike Scott can both be avoided. Their prices have come up a little too much for them to still be solid value plays. This is a tough matchup for the Hawks as the Warriors are ranked 13th or better against all positions on the floor. Jeff Teague and Millsap both make nice contrarian GPP plays, but it’s probably safe to avoid all Hawks in cash games.

Golden State

The Warriors have a nice matchup tonight against the Hawks who are giving up 102.3 points per game this season. This game does have some blowout potential, but hopefully having Millsap back will allow the Hawks to remain competitive. All five starters from the Warriors are in play tonight. I really like the prices of both David Lee and Andre Iguodala around the industry. Both should be able to cover value and potentially give you much more.