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NBA Grind Down: Friday, May 27th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – 8:30 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Toronto Raptors
clevelandnba Vegas Total 197.0 torontonba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd -6.5 Vegas Sprd 6.5
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 95.3
Team Pace 95.50 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7 Opp. Season 17 7 6 2 1
Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4 Last 3 Weeks 21 5 24 9 11


Cleveland Cavaliers

Series Record: 3-2

It’s a sad day. This could be the final Grind Down of the year if the Cavaliers are able to close the series out tonight in Toronto. Cleveland is coming off of a monster win over the Raptors in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead in the series. Even though the home teams have had the edge in this round, the Cavaliers are listed as 6.5-point favorites tonight. It will be interesting to see if the Cavaliers come out with a sense of desperation or if they are ease into the game knowing that they have a Game 7 at home to fall back on. With James at the helm, I expect the Cavaliers to come out firing.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $10,500
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 1.26 FP/Min: 1.30
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.6 37.6 2.0 38.7 3.1
FPPG (FD) 45.0 47.3 2.3 47.7 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 24.5 -2.8 22.4 -4.9

James only played 32 minutes in Game 5, yet he still put up 46 fantasy points. With all of the blowouts in this series, he has only played more than 40 minutes one time. In what is expected to be a competitive Game 6, look for James to play 40+ minutes on the road. The only reason to fade James tonight is if you want to use Kevin Durant instead. Both are in great spots in potential closeout games.

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $8,100
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.01 FP/Min: 0.95
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 35.5 4.0 34.5 3.0
FPPG (FD) 30.8 35.7 4.9 31.0 0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 25.5 -0.2 26.0 0.3

Other than Game 3, Irving has really played well in this series. He has scored 43, 34, 37, and 38 fantasy points in the other four games. His price on FanDuel is still a bit too cheap, making him an elite play in all league formats. I do prefer to use him on FanDuel rather than DraftKings, as he is $800 cheaper.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,700
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.01 FP/Min: 1.11
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 32.0 0.5 27.8 -3.7
FPPG (FD) 32.4 32.2 -0.1 22.8 -9.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 21.1 1.1 18.7 -1.3

Love has been super frustrating in this series. We have waited and waited for him to show up and right when everyone jumps ship, he has his best game to date. Love put up 34 fantasy points in only 24 minutes of action in Game 5. He would have seen more minutes if the game didn’t get out of hand. At this point, I’m not sure what to do with him, but given the lack of options at power forward, he is certainly in play.

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,500 Salary: $5,000
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.61 FP/Min: 0.66
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.7 33.3 2.6 32.9 2.2
FPPG (FD) 20.3 20.4 0.1 20.9 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 11.9 -4.1 14.2 -1.8

Smith has only had one big game so far in this series. If you are trying to save some cap space at shooting guard, I prefer to go with a little cheaper with either Dion Waiters or Andre Roberson. That said, Smith is still a viable play in his price range. He has shown that he has 30+ fantasy point upside.

Tristan Thompson
tristan-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,600 Salary: $4,700
Position: C Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.64 FP/Min: 0.77
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.7 28.6 0.9 27.9 0.2
FPPG (FD) 21.3 18.3 -3.0 18.0 -3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 7.8 -2.1 5.0 -4.9

Thompson also had his best game of the series in Game 5, scoring 25 fantasy points in only 29 minutes of action. He has the potential to play around 35 minutes if the game is close and if he is being effective, but I see him as more of a secondary play in this slate.

Channing Frye
channing-frye-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,100 Salary: $4,100
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.94 FP/Min: 0.89
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 17.1 15.8 -1.3 18.5 1.4
FPPG (FD) 12.6 14.8 2.3 18.5 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 14.6 1.2 12.9 -0.5

Frye is a viable option at power forward strictly due to a lack of options at his position. Draymond Green, Kevin Love, and Patrick Patterson all have question marks surrounding them. Frye didn’t play a lot in Game 5, but that had more to do with how well Love and Thompson were playing. If one of them struggle, Frye could see 20+ minutes tonight.

Toronto Raptors

Series Record: 2-3

The Raptors need to muster up another big performance at home if they are going to force a winner-take-all Game 7. They have played well at home in this series and their fans will certainly have the Air Canada Centre rocking. Even though this game is being played in Toronto, the Raptors are still listed as 6.5-point underdogs. With Jonas Valanciunas back in the roation, I will be avoiding all three of the Raptors big men. There aren’t enough minutes to go around to warrant fantasy consideration.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,000
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.88 FP/Min: 1.07
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 37.0 38.1 1.1 35.4 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 38.5 33.5 -5.0 34.7 -3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.1 -0.7 21.3 -1.5

Lowry was tremendous in the two home games in this series, scoring 29 and 53 fantasy points. This may be the last time to target him all season, because even if the Raptors win, I don’t want to use him on the road in Game 7. I still prefer the likes of Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and Kyrie Irving at point guard, but Lowry makes an excellent GPP play.

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,500
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.82 FP/Min: 0.97
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.9 37.1 1.2 37.1 1.2
FPPG (FD) 35.3 30.5 -4.8 36.6 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 26.3 0.2 25.6 -0.5

DeRozan also played well in the two homes game in this series, scoring 44 and 40 fantasy points. He should see all of the minutes that he can handle in a must win Game 6 and he is a borderline elite play. The only knock on DeRozan is that there are four other viable plays at his position – Thompson, Smith, Waiters, and Roberson.


Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:00 PM

Golden State Warriors Oklahoma City Thunder
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 221.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 221.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 109.5 Team Proj. 111.5
Team Pace 101.60 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 16 21 13 7 4 Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19
Last 3 Weeks 6 20 26 5 5 Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6


Golden State Warriors

Series Record: 2-3

With their backs against the wall, the Warriors picked up a win in Game 5. They now have to travel to Oklahoma City for a Game 6 that is shaping up to be more like a Game 7. If the Thunder win, the series will obviously be over and if the Warriors win, it’s hard to imagine OKC going back winning a Game 7 on the road. The Warriors are listed as 2-point underdogs, which is the first time in the series that they haven’t been favored. The starters from both teams should see all of the minutes that they can handle.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $10,600
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.25 FP/Min: 1.63
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.2 31.9 -2.3 35.4 1.2
FPPG (FD) 47.9 39.9 -8.0 40.5 -7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 27.4 -0.4 26.4 -1.4

Curry finally broke out of his slump at the time when the Warriors needed him the most. In Game 5, he finished with 31 actual points and 53 fantasy points. He played 37 minutes in that game and could see upwards of 40 in Game 6. Russell Westbrook is close to a must play at this point, but Curry is right there with Kyrie Irving as the second best point guard play on the board.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,800
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 1.01 FP/Min: 0.99
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 33.3 34.7 1.4 30.1 -3.2
FPPG (FD) 30.9 34.9 4.0 30.9 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 24.8 2.5 27.6 5.3

You can take the contrarian route and go with DeMar DeRozan at shooting guard, but Thompson has a much better game environment. He has played well in the last two games of the series, scoring 41 and 35 fantasy points. If you are looking to spend up at shooting guard, Thompson is the preferred play.

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,300 Salary: $4,600
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.70 FP/Min: 0.68
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 26.6 29.8 3.2 30.8 4.2
FPPG (FD) 18.5 20.9 2.4 21.2 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 11.3 0.5 10.2 -0.5

Iguodala has outplayed Harrison Barnes so far in this series and we are really starting to see that in their playing time. Iguodala played 34 minutes in Game 5, while Barnes was only on the floor for 25 minutes. Iguodala is the preferred play of the two and he remains an elite play at small forward.

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,700
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.10 FP/Min: 1.16
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.7 37.1 2.4 36.3 1.6
FPPG (FD) 39.1 40.8 1.7 26.2 -12.9
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 17.1 1.1 12.0 -3.9

There has been a lot of talk about the struggles of Green in this series, but he is coming off of his best game so far, scoring 41 fantasy points in 39 minutes in Game 5. If the Warriors are going to pull off a win in Game 6, they will need a big outing from Green on both ends of the floor. He is an elite GPP play and a decent cash game option if you don’t trust the other power forward options.

Andrew Bogut
andrew-bogut-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,500 Salary: $3,900
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 1.10 FP/Min: 1.21
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 20.7 17.5 -3.2 17.6 -3.1
FPPG (FD) 20.2 19.3 -0.9 21.4 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 9.5 9.7 0.3 12.9 3.4

Bogut’s explosion in Game 5 was a bit of an anomaly. In the first four games of the series, he scored 14, 13, 11, and 12 fantasy points. He was extremely effective on both ends of the floor the other night though, and Steve Kerr rewarded him with 30 minutes. We shouldn’t expect that to happen again in Game 6, but Bogut still offers decent value if you need a punt play at center.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Series Record: 3-2

The Thunder put up a fight in Game 5, but as most of us expected, the Warriors were able to pull out the win. The Thunder now head back home for what could be the most important game in franchise history. They are listed as 2-point favorites with the highest team total on the board. All five starters from the Thunder are borderline elite plays in this one, as is Dion Waiters off the bench.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $11,300
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.41 FP/Min: 1.48
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.4 36.6 2.2 37.7 3.3
FPPG (FD) 48.8 51.7 3.0 60.0 11.2
TO-Adj. Usage 28.3 30.9 2.6 33.7 5.4

Westbrook will likely be 90-95% owned in cash games and 80%+ owned in GPPs. Even with the high ownership, I don’t see how you can fade him in any format. He is averaging 60 fantasy points per game in his last three and you have to like his outlook even more with this game being played in Oklahoma City. Don’t overthink this one – Westbrook is the top overall play at any position.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $10,300
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 1.06 FP/Min: 1.24
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.8 39.7 3.9 39.2 3.4
FPPG (FD) 46.4 41.9 -4.5 54.1 7.7
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 26.9 0.6 29.7 3.4

Durant has really picked up his play in the last three games, averaging 54.1 fantasy points in 42 minutes per contest. The Thunder know that they can’t head back to Golden State for Game 7, so I expect Durant to play upwards of 45 minutes in this one. He is right there with LeBron James as the top small forward option on the board. If I had to choose one, I’d probably lean toward Durant at home.

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $5,900
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.74 FP/Min: 0.82
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.7 0.6 35.2 3.1
FPPG (FD) 25.4 24.1 -1.3 28.1 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 11.3 -3.5 13.4 -1.5

Ibaka will be the chalk play at power forward. Not only has he played well in this series, but all of the other options leave you with a pit in your stomach. He has been the only consistent power forward in this round of the playoffs. He remains an elite play in both cash games and tournaments.

Andre Roberson
andre-roberson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,900 Salary: $4,200
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.67 FP/Min: 0.55
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 22.2 25.2 3.0 34.8 12.6
FPPG (FD) 12.5 17.0 4.5 31.3 18.8
TO-Adj. Usage 8.0 8.1 0.1 12.1 4.1

Roberson didn’t play well in Game 2, but he has scored at least 18.5 fantasy points in all four of the other contests in this series. His minutes are trending upward, as he is averaging 34.8 per game in the last three. While he doesn’t have the offensive upside that Dion Waiters does, Roberson is more of a stat-stuffer. I slightly prefer Roberson over Waiters heading into Game 6.

Secondary Plays

Steven Adams
steven-adams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $6,200
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.79 FP/Min: 0.68
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.2 31.2 6.0 24.5 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 19.3 24.7 5.3 22.2 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 10.4 10.0 -0.4 11.8 1.4

Adams is a borderline elite play for Game 6. He got into foul trouble early in Game 5, which limited his fantasy production. He still managed to score 22 fantasy points though, so all was not lost. I have a feeling that everyone will go down to Andrew Bogut at center, which makes Adams a great GPP play. I also think he is the safer play of the two, as his minutes are more secure.

Dion Waiters
dion-waiters-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,900 Salary: $4,100
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.60 FP/Min: 0.68
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.6 26.4 -1.2 30.9 3.3
FPPG (FD) 16.7 15.8 -0.9 15.3 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 13.4 -1.8 11.1 -4.1

How strange is it that Dion Waiters could be the final pick of the Grind Down this season? It’s only fitting, right? We have been avoiding him the entire season, but now he shows up when the Thunder need him the most. Waiters should see around 30 minutes in Game 6 and he’ll likely be the lesser owned between he and Andre Roberson.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious