NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Miami at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Miami -8, 187 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Haslem-Bosh
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Miami
The Heat took a commanding 3-0 series lead with a dominating Game 3 performance. At this stage in their careers, the Heat players know the importance of rest and I’m expecting them to close out the Bobcats tonight. This is the one series in the first round that is all but over. It’s also the one series in the first round that has been void of any viable fantasy options. Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James have all averaged similar or less FP’s than they did during the regular season.
The reasoning for this is pretty simple. Both of these teams play at a slower than average pace and both teams owned a top 10 defense during the regular season. Dwyane Wade has yet to top 33 FP’s and he has yet to top 35 minutes in this series. That really limits his upside. Chris Bosh has also been very quiet in this series and can continue to be ignored for fantasy purposes.
- LeBron James – I have yet to target LeBron in the post-season, but after his solid performances in Games 2 and 3, I may have some exposure to him tonight. LeBron has scored 55 and 53 FP’s in his last two games and knows the importance of this game. The only issue here is that this game could turn into a blowout with Al Jefferson expected to sit.
Charlotte
The Bobcats have played as well as most people expected, but they have just been outmatched by both talent and experience in this series. I expect them to go out swinging, but it sounds like Al Jefferson is doubtful for this game and we could easily see another romping by the Heat. As far as fantasy options go, there is really only one player that I will be targeting. The Heat have been one of the best teams in the NBA against PG’s this season and Kemba Walker is not a recommended cash game play. The same can be said for Gerald Henderson who has only topped 20 FP’s once in this series.
- Josh McRoberts – McRoberts is the one Bobcats’ player that I will be using here. With Al Jefferson out, he gets the biggest boost in terms of fantasy production. He has averaged 37 minutes and has averaged 25 FP’s per game in this series. The Heat have not defended PF’s well this season and McBob can do a little bit of everything on the floor. I like that he has 30 FP upside at such a cheap price point.
Atlanta at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Indiana -7, 187 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Brand
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Atlanta
After that’s gone on with the Hawks and Pacers, we head back to Indiana with the series all tied up at 2. I mentioned in the last Grind Down that I still had the Pacers winning this series and I just don’t see the Hawks taking 2 of the last 3 games without homecourt advantage. The Pacers are 7 point favorites in this game with a very low total of only 187 points.
There have basically been 3 viable fantasy options for the Hawks in this series. Kyle Korver has topped 24 FP’s in 3 of the first 4 games and continues to make a nice punt play at SG. Paul Millsap fantasy production has been very inconsistent this series and I think he should be avoided in cash games. He could make a nice contrarian play in a GPP though.
- Jeff Teague – Teague has been the catalyst for the Hawks’ playoff run by averaging over 18 points and 6 assists in this series. He has scored at least 28 FP’s in every game so far and has really been able to get whatever he wants against this once dreaded Pacers’ defense. If the Hawks are going to win Game 5, it will be on the back of Teague.
Indiana
The Pacers have knotted the series up at 2 a piece and now look like the clear favorites to move on to the second round to face the winner of the Raptors/Nets series. The Pacers continue to be one of my favorite teams to target in the first round because this is a pace-up series for them and the Hawks are below average defensively. Other than Roy Hibbert, all of the Pacers’ starters are in play in Game 5.
Lance Stephenson always brings a high upside to the table, but he may be a bit too inconsistent to use in cash games. George Hill has scored over 20 FP’s in 3 of the first 4 games and continues to make a nice punt play at PG. Speaking of PG, Paul George has been the best player in this series and is averaging 47 FP’s per game. While his price across the industry is starting to reflect that level of production, I still think he is in play tonight.
- David West – West is trending upward in this series. His fantasy production has gone up in every game so far and he is finally playing the way that I predicted him to at the start of the series. West has scored 31 and 36 FP’s in his last 2 games and I expect another strong performance out of him tonight. Dollar for dollar, he is my second favorite play on the board.
San Antonio at Dallas
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4, 202 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
San Antonio
The Spurs lost a heart-breaker in Game 3 after Vince Carter nailed a 3 at the buzzer to put the Mavericks up by 1. The Spurs cannot afford to lose this game and head back to San Antonio down 3-1. I expect this to be their best performance to date in these playoffs and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take this game rather easily. That said, the line is only set at 4 points and Vegas expects another nail biter between these two longtime rivals.
I mentioned this before Game 3, but isn’t it interesting that we were avoiding the Spurs all season long and now that the playoffs are here, the Spurs are one of the best teams to target. The veterans are finally seeing a full workload of minutes and we have seen their fantasy production go up accordingly. Tony Parker continues to make a strong play at PG, Kawhi Leonard makes a nice upside play, and Tiago Splitter is an under the radar play at Center.
- Tim Duncan – Duncan has been solid in this series, but I am still waiting for that 50 FP breakout performance. I’m telling you, it’s coming soon. The Mavericks just don’t match up well with Duncan down low, especially when Dirk is forced to defend him. Duncan’s points have been there in this series, but he hasn’t had those peripheral stats that he usually has.
- Manu Ginobili – Ginobiliiiii continues to be my favorite play dollar for dollar. I have recommended him in every Grind Down when the Spurs have been on the schedule and he has yet to disappoint. He has scored at least 27 FP’s in every game this series and with this game being a must-win, I expect him to play at least 30 minutes. With Ginobili averaging close to 1 FP per minute – let me get my calculator here – that should equate to around 30 FP’s.
Dallas
The Mavericks have been one of the many pleasant surprises so far in the playoffs. Typically the 1/8 matchup goes much like the Heat/Bobcats series where the 8 seed is lucky to win 1 game. That’s not the case with Mavs as they have a 2-1 series advantage and have an excellent shot at taking a commanding 3-1 series lead before heading back to San Antonio.
While the Mavericks have played fantastic in this series, there haven’t been many standout fantasy performances. We’ve seen nice games out of Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert, Shawn Marion, Devin Harris, and Vince Carter, but none have been able to back those performances up. Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki are my favorite plays here, but I’m not sure how heavily I will be targeting either of them.