NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-12-02 22:51:42

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Orlando at Washington

• Vegas Line – Washington -6.5, 196 Over/Under
• Orlando Proj. Starters – Moore-Oladipo-Afflalo-Davis-Vucevic
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Webster-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat

Orlando

The Magic are right near the league average in both pace of play (98) and points scored per game (99). They are facing a Wizards team that is giving up 100 points per game. All signs are point for this game to be a close, fairly high scoring game. The Wizards have been very average defensively against most positions, but it’s worth noting that they are ranked 1st against Centers over the last 15 days. Marcin Gortat has always been one of the better defending Centers in the league and it’s starting to show. Even though Nikola Vucevic has been posting monster stat lines, I think Gortat keeps him in check tonight.

Jameer Nelson missed the Magic’s last game, but did travel with them to Washington. He’s currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game so keep your eye on the injury news and use E’Twaun Moore as a solid value play if Nelson ends up sitting this one out.

• Victor Oladipo – Oladipo is seeing big minutes now that he has been inserted into the starting lineup. He is still turnover prone and inconsistent on offense, but his ability to fill the stat sheet makes him a great play tonight. He’s still cheap across the board and has the ability to top 30 FP’s.

• Glen Davis – Davis has been remarkably consistent this season. He’s scored between 21-29 FP’s in every game this season and has seen a good share of minutes since being inserted into the starting lineup. He draws a favorable matchup against Nene Hilario.

Washington

The Wizards are just below the league averages in both pace of play (95) and points scored per game (99). The Wizards have been a great team to target this season as their entire starting lineup makes a case for a strong play depending on the matchup. Their matchup against the Magic is very favorable, the Magic rank in the bottom 12 against every single position except for Center.

Look for Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster to continue to see big minutes as Bradley Beal is still at least a few games away from returning. Their are both priced in the same range and my recommendation would be to use Ariza in GPP’s as he has higher upside and use Webster in cash games as he has been more consistent.

• John Wall – Wall is playing at an incredible level right now, he’s scored over 40 FP’s in six of his last eight games and has a great matchup against the Magic tonight. It doesn’t matter if Nelson or Moore starts, Wall will have a big advantage over either of them. Look for him to push the pace and continue to find easy buckets in transition. If you are spending big on a player tonight, Wall is the way to go.

New Orleans at Chicago

• Vegas Line – Chicago -7, 192 Over/Under
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Smith
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Dunleavy-Deng-Boozer-Noah

New Orleans

The Pelicans are averaging 102 points per game this season which is right around the top 10 in the league. However, they are going to be without one of their biggest weapons as Anthony Davis will be out with a fractured hand. While this is awful news for Davis, it really opens up the door for a few players offensively. Ryan Anderson will move into the starting lineup and Jason Smith should see a big bump in minutes as well. This may also give Eric Gordon a chance to establish himself as the Pelican’s top option offensively.

The Pelicans matchup against the Bulls may not seem great, but the Bulls defense has a bigger name that the numbers suggest. The Bulls have been below average at defending SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season. I still like Eric Gordon, but the two bigs should benefit the most with Davis out.

• Ryan Anderson – Anderson is going to be a very popular play tonight and for good reason. He’s been averaging close to 30 FP’s per game over the last couple of weeks and now gets an even bigger boost with Davis out. Anderson should continue to see 35+ minutes and has the green light. His price is likely to take a big jump soon, so take him now before that happens.

• Jason Smith – Smith was losing out big minutes ever since Ryan Anderson came back from his injury, but now that Anderson is in the starting lineup, there aren’t many players that will be challenging him for minutes. Smith is dirt cheap across the board and now is the time to take him before his price goes up.

Chicago

The Bulls are also short-handed. They will be without Jimmy Butler again tonight and as you know, Derrick Rose is out for the season. These injuries have meant big minutes for Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng and slightly increased minutes for both Tony Snell and Mike Dunleavy. For me, I don’t love either of these players as viable fantasy options tonight because Thibs will likely go with the hot hand and it’s really a toss up as to who that will be.

The Pelicans have really only defended SF’s well this season and their interior defensive rankings will likely take a bit hit now that Anthony Davis is out. Look for both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah to pound the glass and dominate inside.

• Kirk Hinrich – Hinrich is an extremely safe play tonight. He’s scored 17 or more fantasy points in nine of his last ten games and should easily top that mark tonight. He’s playing 35+ minutes per night and the Pelicans have not defended PG’s well.

• Carlos Boozer – Boozer has been very up and down this season, but you have to love the matchup against Ryan Anderson. While Anderson is a great offensive player, he’s never been known as a good low-post defender.

Atlanta at San Antonio

• Vegas Line – San Antonio -12, 197.5 Over/Under
• Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Williams-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

Atlanta

Here is another game that involves the Spurs that has a good chance of turning into a blowout. The Hawks are 12 point underdogs in this one and the Spurs are at the top of the league in point differential this season. Even with only 5 games on the schedule, I think this one is an easy fade. The Spurs rank in the top 13 against every single position and the Hawks starters could end up sitting out the 4th quarter.

• Lou Williams – While I don’t love the Williams play, he will likely see 25 minutes regardless of the outcome of the game. They are slowly bringing him along as he works his way back from injury. He will also get the start with Kyle Korver still sidelined.

San Antonio

The Spurs are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.3 points which is second only to the Pacers. They continue to get up big on teams and Pop is quick to take out his starters and let the bench finish the game. Just take a look at Tony Parker game logs over the last couple of weeks and see how many games he has played under 30 minutes. There are just too many red flags in this one and I will be avoiding all things Spurs.

Houston at Utah

• Vegas Line – Houston -7.5, 202.5 Over/Under
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
• Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors

Houston

The Rockets are the highest scoring team in the NBA at 109 points per game. They love to push the tempo and even though the Jazz are a slower-paced team, Vegas has this projected as the highest scoring game of the night. This game does have the potential for a blowout, but the Jazz typically play well at home and they should be able to keep this one close enough for the starters to play their usual number of minutes.

The Jazz surprisingly rank in the top 10 against PG’s, SG’s, and Centers, but the Jazz have been in so many blowouts that it’s hard to trust these numbers. The Jazz don’t have any great one on one defenders and I don’t think you should avoid any positions on the Rockets.

• Chandler Parsons – Dwight has not been playing up to his standards and Harden is too inconsistent to trust in cash games. Instead of paying up for either of them, I think taking the value route is the way to go. Parsons fills the stat sheet and is really the only player that can push for 40 minutes on this team. The Jazz are ranked 28th against SF’s on the season.

• Patrick Beverley – The Aaron Brooks vs. Patrick Beverley debate rages on, but I will always be in favor of the starting player that sees more minutes. Brooks has been a great GPP play lately, but his game logs are way too up and down for me to think about taking him in a cash game. Beverley should play around 35 minutes.

Utah

The Jazz are a wild card every night they take the floor. They are an extremely young team whose production is tough to predict on a nightly basis. Vegas expects the Jazz to stay in this game and if so, they would have a great matchup against the Rockets who have one of the worst defenses in the league.

Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors are the two best plays here, they are both priced in that mid-tier and both have good upside. Trey Burke makes an intriguing GPP play, he is starting to get more comfortable on the floor and his price is still extremely cheap.

Indiana at Portland

• Vegas Line – Indiana -1.5, 193 Over/Under
• Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
• Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez

Indiana

The Pacers are a slow paced team that wins by playing great defense. While this game would seem like a low scoring game, Vegas has this game projected as the third highest scoring game of the night. Not only that, but the Pacers are only favored by 2 so expect this one to come down to the wire.

Looking at the DvP rankings, the Blazers have been excellent at defending SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s, ranking in the top 6 in the league against each position. This hurts the value of Stephenson, George, and West, but George has shown that he is matchup-proof so don’t discount him too much.

• George Hill – It can be hard to take Hill because he is basically their last option offensively, but he’s been playing well lately and has the best matchup of anyone on the team. Hill will have a nice size advantage over Lillard and the Blazers are ranked 24th against opposing PG’s this season.

• Roy Hibbert – Hibbert has scored over 28 fantasy points in each of his last 3 games and has a nice matchup against the Blazers. Lopez is a pretty average defender and look for Hibbert to play well on both sides of the ball.

Portland

With this game expected to be close and fairly high scoring, it’s one of my favorite games to target on a short schedule. The problem is that the Pacers defense has not had many holes in it this season. The Pacers rank in the top 6 against every position except for PG. This makes Damian Lillard the obvious play here.

• Damian Lillard – Lillard has played well against the Pacers in the past averaging close to 35 fantasy points per game against them. He has the best matchup of all of the Blazers and has been extremely consistent this season. Look for him to top 30 FP’s.