NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Orlando at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Indiana -15.5, 190.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Davis-Vucevic
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Orlando
The line in this game is 15.5 which is the highest that I have seen in a few weeks. The Magic have been absolutely awful on the road this season and the Pacers own the league’s best home record. This game has blowout written all over it. The only possible play on the Magic is Victor Oladipo. As one of the Magic’s key pieces, they are going to try to develop him all that they can this season. I could see him playing 30+ minutes even if this game is over by halftime.
Indiana
While the Pacers are in a favorable matchup against the Magic, the blowout factor has to come into play here. The Magic have lost more than 10 straight games on the road, most of them by 10 points or more. With a line this high, you have to think the Pacers will get up big early and then coast the rest of the game, especially considering the fact that they play again tomorrow. Anything can happen in the NBA, but why take such a big risk by paying for any of these Pacers’ players unless you are taking them as a contrarian play in a GPP?
Portland at Washington
- Vegas Line – Portland -1.5, 205 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
Portland
The Blazers take on the Wizards in what should be a pretty fast-paced, pretty high scoring game. Both of these teams average at least 95 possessions per game and neither team is afraid to get into a track meet. This is a great game to target from a fantasy perspective because there should be plenty of fantasy points scored and the game should stay very close.
The Wizards make my job very easy. They have been one of the best teams in the league at defending the post all season long. When you have the physicality of Marcin Gortat and Nene Hilario, it makes it extremely tough for opposing bigs to get anything going in the paint. The Wizards have also defended the SG position well. As you can see from the DvP rankings, the Wizards are ranked 7th or better against these three positions.
- Damian Lillard – Lillard finally broke out of his two-week slump with a 40 fantasy point performance against the Raptors the other night. The good news about his slump is that his price has come down considerably across the industry. I like his matchup against Wall and the Wizards who are ranked 30th against PG’s over the last 15 days.
Washington
The Wizards also have a favorable matchup tonight. The Blazers have gone from being one of the best defensive teams in the league to one of the faster-paced teams in the league. Earlier in the season, the Blazers were ranked in the top 10 at defending all positions on the floor except for PG’s. If you look at their DvP rankings now, their new style of play has hurt their defense considerably.
The Blazers are ranked 3rd at defending the PF position, but are ranked 12th or worse against the other 4 positions on the floor. Marcin Gortat makes a great cash game play tonight, he has been very consistent over the past month and has a nice matchup against Lopez. Trevor Ariza and Bradley Beal are also in play, while Beal is the better scorer, Ariza is typically better at filling up the stat sheet. I think they have a similar fantasy value though, so take the cheaper of the two.
- John Wall – Wall is coming off a great game against the Thunder the other night. I had a feeling that he would be pumped up for that game against Durant. Tonight he faces a Blazers defense that is right at the bottom of the league at defending PG’s. They have given up the 3rd most FP’s to PG’s this season and Wall should be in for another big outing.
Philadelphia at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -11, 208 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Anderson-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Philadelphia
The Sixers continue their disappointing season tonight in Brooklyn. They are only 7-17 on the road this season and have lost 8 of their last 10 games. This is one of those games that involves some risk from a fantasy perspective. It should be an extremely high scoring game, but it could also turn into a blowout if the Sixers forget to show up like they have on a number of occasions this season.
The Nets have really picked up their defense over the past month or so and that has been the biggest reason that they have been playing better. Over the last 15 days, the Nets are ranked 14th or better at defending every position on the floor. This makes it tough to like any of the Sixers tonight. That said, injuries typically change everything and if Michael Carter-Williams sits out again tonight, I do like Tony Wroten as a value play with good upside.
Brooklyn
The Nets are a tough team to predict now that they are fully healthy. Not only do they have 8-9 players that contribute regularly, but they have slowed their pace of play down and now average only 93 possessions per game. Against most opponents, this combination is terrible for fantasy value, but when you are facing the Sixers, everyone is in play. The Sixers are ranked 29th or 30th against every position on the floor. That’s a hard feat to accomplish, but the historically bad defense of the Sixers has done it.
Andrei Kirilenko is the only Nets’ player that you should avoid tonight and that’s because he is doubtful to play. Joe Johnson makes a great play on a few sites tonight, his price is extremely affordable on DS, FD, and SS. Paul Pierce also makes a nice play as everyone’s numbers get inflated when facing this Sixers defense.
- Deron Williams – Williams is finally back in the starting lineup and he has averaged around 35 minutes over his last 5 games so he is back to playing a full complement of minutes. I have been picking PG’s against the Sixers all season long and it has really worked out well. No reason to think that will change tonight. Take D-Will and pair him with another Nets player and watch them put on a show.
Detroit at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -9.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
Detroit
The Pistons are one of those teams that you just can’t predict. They are an extremely talented bunch, but they are not playing up to the level that they are capable of. That said, they do play up to their opponents level every once in a while as evidenced by their win in Miami earlier in the season. Vegas has the Heat as 9.5 point favorites tonight which is right on the edge of a potential blowout. I’m not very high on most of the Pistons tonight, but the one position to target against the Heat is the Center position.
- Andre Drummond – Drummond is finally becoming a consistent fantasy option that you can rely on night in and night out. He has topped 35 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and will have a major advantage down low against Bosh tonight. The Heat are going to have an extremely difficult time keeping him off the glass on both ends of the floor.
Miami
The Heat have a very favorable matchup tonight against the Pistons whose defense has been less than stellar so far this season. The Pistons are ranked 23rd or worse at defending the PG, SF, and Center positions. One interesting play in this matchup is Dwyane Wade. I know he can be a tough player to pick because he is always injured, but his price across the industry is low and as long as he is in the lineup, I think he could make a very nice play. Chris Bosh is also in play, but there are quite a few options that I like at Center tonight and I’ve had a hard time choosing Bosh over some of the other Centers.
- LeBron James – At this point, I think we need to stop waiting for LeBron to have a breakout fantasy game in which he puts up 70 fantasy points. We are more than halfway through the season and we have yet to see it. That’s not to say that he isn’t a good fantasy option, but I think we have to take LeBron for what he is and that is a very consistent fantasy option that will give you around 45 FP’s every night.
New York at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – New York -7, 195 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Sanders
New York
The Knicks and Bucks are two of the slower paced teams in the league. The Knicks only average 92 possessions per game and the Bucks only average 94 possessions per game. If this game holds true to these season averages, I have a hard time seeing this game get anywhere close to the 195 point total. I’m expecting this to be a low scoring, knock-down, drag-out type of game.
The Bucks defense certainly helps the value of the Knicks though. The Bucks are ranked 18th or worse at defending every position on the floor with the exception of PG’s. If you look at their DvP rankings in the last 15 days, they have really been struggling to defend all around. The one consistency with the Bucks is their inability to contain big men.
Carmelo Anthony is in play tonight, but a slow paced game against a team that has been blown out numerous times this season makes me want to spend my salary cap elsewhere. J.R. Smith makes an interesting GPP play, especially if Iman Shumpert sits out tonight’s game.
- Tyson Chandler – Chandler has been extremely consistent since coming back from his injury. He has topped 25 FP’s in 7 of his last 9 games and is priced fairly across the board. On FD and DK specifically, it’s hard not to take Chandler in a favorable matchup when he’s almost a lock for 25+ FP’s. He’s one of my favorite cash game plays.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have a tough matchup tonight against the Knicks who are ranked 6th or better against 3 of the 5 positions on the floor. Not only that, but as long as Larry Drew is the head coach, we will continue to see wacky starting lineups and wacky rotations. We will continue to see guys like John Henson and Larry Sanders see way too few minutes. In DFS, we want predictability and the Bucks are the furthest team from it at this point.