NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-03 23:01:12

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

DraftKings has four daily fantasy basketball tournaments tonight with at least $10,000 in prizes, including $12, $27, $109 and $270 buy-in games. Check out our DraftKings Review if you’ve yet to sign up.

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Memphis at Washington

Vegas Line – Memphis -1.5, 189.5 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat

Memphis

The Grizzlies and Wizards game is expected to be a close one. The Grizzlies are only favored by 1.5 points, however the total in this game is set pretty low at only 189.5 points. The Grizzlies matchup against the Wizards is average at best. The Wizards are only averaging 95 possessions per game which is below the league average. They are also giving up less than 100 points per game.

Looking at the DvP rankings, the Wizards are ranked 16th or better in terms of fantasy points given up to all five positions. John Wall has really picked up his play on the defensive end of the floor and I’m not sure I want to take Mike Conley right now as he has only topped 30 FP’s once in his last 5 games. Marc Gasol also has a tough matchup. Marcin Gortat is one of the better low post defenders in the league.

Zach Randolph – The Wizards have been very stout down low this season, but there was a point in the season when they were below average defensively against PF’s. That point in the season was when Nene Hilario was hurt the first time around and Booker was inserted into the starting lineup. Randolph is coming off of a huge game against the Cavs the other night and I like his matchup against the smaller Booker. Look for him to post another strong double-double tonight.

Washington

The Wizards matchup doesn’t get any better. The Grizzlies are one of the slowest paced teams in the league (averaging only 92 possessions per game), they are only giving up 94.9 points per game (3rd lowest in the NBA), and they are ranked 14th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. This is not a great matchup for the Wizards.

Bradley Beal had a big game against the Grizzlies in their first meeting this season, but I have a hard time seeing him repeat that performance, especially now that Tony Allen is back in the mix. Trevor Booker is worth a look as a punt option at the PF position. He is coming off of his best game since the Nene injury and he should see a good chunk of minutes as he’s a much better defender than either Singleton or Harrington.

Chicago at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -3.5, 186 Over/Under
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett

Chicago

The Bulls and Nets always seem to have very close, hard fought battles when they meet up. They had arguably the best first round series last year in the playoffs and they are both fighting for playoff positioning in the East. The Bulls matchup against the Nets is a tough one though. The Nets are giving up less than 100 points per game, they are one of the slower paced teams in the league, and the Nets only have one weakness in the DvP rankings.

Even with a low total and a tough matchup, there are two play on the Bulls tonight that I like and a few value plays that aren’t bad options either. Kirk Hinrich has topped 16 FP’s in each of his last 10 games and is very cheap on most DFS sites. Mike Dunleavy has really been playing well over the last two weeks and finally looks comfortable in this offense. He is in play on sites that have yet to adjust his price upward.

Joakim Noah – Noah is one of those few players that you don’t mind taking in tough matchups. He has one of the best motors in the league and is playing the best basketball of his career. He was two rebounds shy of a triple-double in the FIRST HALF yesterday against the Knicks. Noah should continue to play well tonight and he will have a little extra motivation as he takes on his nemesis Kevin Garnett. There is no love lost between those two.

Jimmy Butler – Butler’s fantasy production has really gone up over the last two weeks and he has been a much more consistent player. Bulls’ beat writers attribute this to the fact that he is attacking the rim more and creating easier shot attempts for himself. The Nets have not defended the SG position well this season and Butler is a lock for close to 40 minutes tonight. He’s in play on all sites, but especially on DK where he is only $5,400.

Brooklyn

The Nets are climbing up the Eastern Conference standings and would love to get a victory tonight to close the gap between themselves and the Bulls. The Nets are a team that no one is going to want to see in the playoffs and if they can finish strong and get homecourt advantage in the first round, they may be able to put a scare in one of the big boys in the second round.

While I like the outlook for the Nets for the rest of the season, I don’t love their matchup tonight. The Bulls are much like the Grizzlies. They pride themselves in establishing a slow pace of play and then playing shut down defense on the other end of the floor. The Bulls are ranked 9th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed and are holding their opponents to 92.3 points per game which is second only to the Indiana Pacers. Deron Williams could be in play on SS, but none of the other Nets look like viable options tonight.

New York at Detroit

Vegas Line – Detroit -4.5, 206 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

New York

The Knicks forgot to show up yesterday against the Bulls and now face the Pistons on the second half of a back to back. Carmelo Anthony called out his team after yesterday’s game saying “It seems like we’re not even competing right now.” Calling out your team in the media typically either motivates your teammates or aggravates them and the situation gets even worse. Knowing the Knicks, the latter is more likely to happen, but I do like their matchup tonight against the Pistons.

The Pistons are giving up 103.7 points per game this season which is the 5th most in the NBA. They have been dropping in the DvP rankings too as they are now ranked 16th or worse against every position. This game features a high total and I’m expecting both teams to crack the 100 point mark. Tyson Chandler makes a nice value play at Center, he seems to be the only Knicks’ player that is actually giving an effort on the court.

Carmelo Anthony – Melo is dealing with a bruised hand, but as long as he is in the lineup, I don’t expect it to affect his play. He has a terrific matchup against the Pistons who will have a tough time defending him on the perimeter. If the Knicks decide to play small ball, Melo will be matched up with Monroe which is a huge mis-match for the Knicks. After calling out his teammates yesterday, I think Melo shows up to play and has a big game.

Detroit

The Pistons have a nice matchup against the Knicks who seem to have given up defensively The Knicks used to be ranked in the top 10 against all positions on the floor, but over the last two weeks, the Knicks are ranked 16th or worse at defending PG’s, SG’s, and Centers. I think all five starters are in play here, but Andre Drummond has the toughest matchup of the five. Even though Chandler gave up a big game to Noah yesterday, he’s still one of the better low post defenders in basketball. Greg Monroe has really stepped up his game over the past few weeks, he would have a great matchup against Melo if the Knicks start Melo at the PF spot.

Josh Smith – Don’t look now, but J-Smoove is closely resembling a consistent NBA player. He has scored at least 35 FP’s in each of his last 5 games and I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he is a nice cash game play tonight. The Knicks do not match up well with the Pistons and I think Smith should be able to have a solid all-around game and continue his 35+ FP streak.

Brandon Jennings – Jennings is going to be one of the toughest roster decisions for a lot of players tonight. His price has come way down across the industry and he has a nice matchup against Felton and the Knicks who have been awful against PG’s over the last two weeks. The problem is that Jennings has been in a major slump. He has the potential to put up 40 FP’s and I think he makes a great play tonight across the board. It’s a great time to buy low on him.

Charlotte at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -12.5, Over/Under 198
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh

Charlotte

This is a tough game to predict. The Bobcats are not only playing the second half of a back to back after losing to the Thunder last night, but they are playing their 3 game in 4 nights. They come into this game as 12.5 point underdogs and this one feels like it could be over by half-time. There has been a lot of talk about the impact of potential blowouts of fantasy production and the numbers have made two things very clear: studs and underdogs both get hurt by potential blowouts. With a decent slate of games tonight, I think the safest route is to avoid all Bobcats in cash games. Al Jefferson could be the one exception, but I think he is better served as a GPP play.

Miami

The Heat concern me for the same reason that the Bobcats do. This game could be over by halftime and the Heat are in playoff mode right now. With a little over a month left in the regular season, the Heat are not going to wear themselves out by playing Lebron, Wade, and Bosh huge minutes in games that they don’t have to. Not only that, but it’s not a great matchup anyway. The Bobcats are a solid team defensively and like to slow the pace of the game down. My guess is that most players in the industry will be avoiding this game and I think that’s the right call.

Utah at Milwaukee

Vegas Line – Milwaukee -1, 196 Over/Under
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia

Utah

This game features two teams that are just waiting for the Draft Lottery. At this point in the season, a win doesn’t help either team. With that said, at least these two teams are still competing and haven’t completely thrown in the towel like the Sixers have. The total of this game is set at 196 points which may not seem like a lot, but neither of these teams are very efficient offensively so this game is expected to be played at a fast pace.

The Bucks are giving up 102.1 points per game this season which is near the bottom of the league. The Bucks are also ranked 25th or worse in terms of fantasy points allowed to SF’s, PF’s, and Centers. Trey Burke has picked up his play since the All-Star break, but has the toughest matchup of the starting five. Richard Jefferson makes a nice punt option as he is playing close to 30 minutes per game and is close to minimum salary.

Derrick Favors – Favors has topped 30 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games and draws a terrific matchup against the Bucks who have been one of the worst interior defenses all season long. It’s still a bit frustrating that Coach Corbin won’t give him more than 32 minutes, but that should be more than enough playing time for Favors to crack that 30 FP mark again.

Gordon Hayward – Hayward is one of those players that can make or break your lineup. He has the upside of a top tier player, but the downside of a lower tier player. He seems to either have a great game or a bad game and rarely just has an average game. He is coming off of a nice performance last night and I love his matchup against the much smaller Wolters.

Milwaukee

The Bucks have a solid matchup tonight against the Jazz who are playing the second half of a back to back after losing a close game to the Pacers last night. The Jazz are giving up 100 points per game to their opponents this season and have been very average defensively. Even though the Jazz are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, I’m expecting this one to be played at a fast pace. The Bucks continue to be a tough team to analyze on a daily basis.

John Henson continues to only see limited minutes for no apparent reason. I like Khris Middleton as a punt play at SF, he has played well in his last two games. Ersan Ilyasova is also in play, other than night, he is probably seeing the 2nd most consistent minutes on a nightly basis. Nate Wolters should be avoided, he has really fallen off the fantasy radar over the past two weeks.

Brandon Knight – Knight has a solid matchup against the rookie Burke. The Jazz have been below average defensively this season and Knight is one of the better rebounders at the PG position. Look for Knight to have another solid all-around game tonight. I really like his price on DK where he is listed at $6,500.