NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 7th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers – 6:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 15 | 20 | 9 | 8 | DvP | 1 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 25 | 1 | 19 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
Before the second round started, everyone picked the Sixers and Raptors to meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. Both teams are now on the brink of being swept by the Celtics and Cavaliers. The bigger surprise in my eyes is the Celtics. Brad Stevens is a genius, but without their best player, I didn’t expect them to compete with a Sixers’ team that is loaded with talent. Boston won the first two games at home and then picked up a huge win in overtime of Game 3. They enter tonight’s elimination game as 6-point underdogs with an implied total of only 99.8 points.
It’s safe to say that Terry Rozier has outplayed Ben Simmons in this series. In the first three games, Rozier has scored 55, 48, and 37 fantasy points. While it’s been an incredible start, he feels overpriced on both FanDuel ($8,900) and DraftKings ($8,200). I know that point guard is thin in this two-game slate, but the Sixers are one of the best teams in basketball at defending point guards. They are also in a must-win game at home. It might bite me again, but I will be fading Rozier in all formats. Jaylen Brown was on a 24-minute limit for Game 3, but ended up playing 29 thanks to overtime. He’s expected to be on a minute restriction again tonight, but the Celtics haven’t given us an exact number. I’m going to assume that he plays close to 29 minutes, which makes him a strong play on FanDuel at a price of $5,400. Marcus Smart is one of the most inconsistent players in the NBA. He has some tournament appeal given his upside, but is an easy fade in cash games at this price.
It’s funny how narratives work in the NBA. Ben Simmons was the greatest thing since sliced bread before this series started, but now everyone is saying that about Jayson Tatum. Why can’t they both be great young players? The overreaction in the media is incredible. Regardless, Tatum is one of the top targets at small forward. He could push for 40 minutes if this game stays close. Al Horford was the reason why the Celtics won Game 3. He showed up in a big way in overtime. He has scored at least 36 fantasy points in every game so far this series and projects to have low ownership once again. Aron Baynes is the big-man version of Smart. He offers a high ceiling for the price, but has a low floor. For that reason, he’s best suited in tournaments. Marcus Morris continues to play well at home and struggle on the road (his last outing was aided by overtime). I’d rather play Serge Ibaka or Jeff Green at a similar price point.
Notable Injuries
Jaylen Brown (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.0 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | $8,900 | $8,200 | $16,900 | 23.9 | 15.5 | 25.9 | 11.0 | 0.92 | 20.0% | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,400 | $5,700 | $11,300 | 25.2 | 3.4 | 30.7 | 2.4 | 0.82 | 18.5% | 15 | 15 | 25 |
| Jayson Tatum | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,700 | 26.0 | 5.8 | 30.5 | 4.3 | 0.85 | 17.0% | 7 | 20 | 1 |
| Al Horford | $7,200 | $7,300 | $14,500 | 32.1 | 5.3 | 31.6 | 4.1 | 1.02 | 17.8% | 7 | 9 | 19 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 15.8 | -0.6 | 18.3 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 14.8% | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| Marcus Smart | $6,200 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 24.3 | 0.3 | 29.9 | 1.1 | 0.81 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Morris | $5,000 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 23.2 | -2.0 | 26.7 | 1.8 | 0.87 | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum
Secondary Plays – Terry Rozier, Al Horford, Aron Baynes (GPP), Marcus Smart (GPP), Marcus Morris (GPP)
Philadelphia 76ers
There has never been a team that has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series in the NBA playoffs. Ever. Do I think the Sixers have a chance to change the record books? I actually do. It’s not a good chance by any means, but hear me out. They are clearly the more talented team in this series and were favored in both of the games in Boston. If they can pick up a win tonight, they’ll head back to Boston for Game 5. If they can scrape out a win there, they will have all of the momentum heading into a home game with a chance to tie the series at three games a piece. From there, we have a winner-take-all with all of the pressure on the Celtics. Insert the Dumb and Dumber GIF here — “so you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
Ben Simmons has not played well in this series, but he did have a decent fantasy outing in Game 3. He needs to be more aggressive when attacking the rim, as he seems to be avoiding contact in order to avoid the free-throw line. He also made two bone-headed plays in overtime, but that’s the growing pains that come with starting a rookie in the playoffs. Simmons is a great tournament play tonight. LeBron James and Joel Embiid are the two superstars that everyone will be paying up for and it’s nearly impossible to play all three in the same lineup. Simmons should garner little ownership, even though he’s playing at home in a game where he could see 40 minutes. J.J. Redick is one of the top shooting guards options in the slate. He’s one of the few consistent players we have at our disposal tonight. Marco Belinelli is also viable, although I don’t expect him to play 36 minutes again anytime soon.
Robert Covington was ineffective in Game 3 and only logged 24 minutes. While it’s a bit concerning that the Sixers are willing to bench him, I’m willing to take a chance on him in tournaments. When a player relies on threes, blocks, and steals for most of his fantasy production, he’s going to have a wide range of potential outcomes. Dario Saric and Ersan Ilyasova are fine plays in large-field tournaments, but not players that I will be starting my lineups with. Embiid has scored at least 48 fantasy points in every game so far this series. He’s as close to a must play as you are going to find tonight. I expect him to play minutes in the upper 30s against a Celtics’ team that hasn’t had an answer for him all year. Dollar for dollar, Embiid is my favorite superstar of the slate.
Notable Injuries
None
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -4.1 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,800 | $8,600 | $17,700 | 42.2 | 0.9 | 33.7 | 4.2 | 1.25 | 22.8% | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,900 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 24.9 | 2.7 | 30.2 | 3.7 | 0.82 | 20.2% | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Robert Covington | $6,700 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 28.3 | -3.9 | 31.6 | -1.4 | 0.89 | 15.2% | 5 | 24 | 3 |
| Dario Saric | $6,500 | $6,000 | $13,400 | 27.6 | 3.1 | 29.6 | 1.6 | 0.93 | 18.6% | 17 | 2 | 2 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,300 | $9,800 | $18,000 | 44.4 | 2.2 | 30.3 | 3.7 | 1.47 | 28.2% | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,400 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 22.8 | 1.6 | 25.1 | -0.3 | 0.91 | 16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,000 | $4,700 | $9,900 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 24.3 | 5.4 | 0.78 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – J.J. Redick, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons (GPP), Robert Covington (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (Cash), Robert Covington (FD GPP), Marco Belinelli
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:30 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | George Hill | J.R. Smith | Kyle Korver | LeBron James | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 26 | 26 | 13 | 10 | DvP | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 27 | 5 | 21 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 21 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are already licking their wounds. Despite having more talent, a deeper bench, and home-court advantage in the series, they are on the brink of being swept by the Cavaliers. LeBron James has had their number for years and clearly that’s still the case. It will be interesting to see if the Raptors put up a fight tonight or if they waive the white flag early. They come into the game as 5.5-point underdogs, so let’s hope the game stays competitive. There is nothing worse in a two-game slate than a blowout.
Kyle Lowry has shot the ball well in this series (22-of-35), but has yet to take more than 13 shots in any game. It’s a bit puzzling, as he’s been their most effective player on the offensive end of the floor. In a win or go home game tonight, perhaps we see Lowry take a few more shots. Even though he hasn’t taken many shots, he has still scored at least 34 fantasy points in every game so far this series. At this point, I prefer Lowry over DeMar DeRozan, who was benched in Game 3. I know that he was struggling, but how do you bench your best scorer the entire fourth quarter of a playoff game? DeRozan is viable in tournaments tonight, but I do prefer Lowry if I had to choose one. Fred VanVleet is going to be the mega-chalk value play tonight. He didn’t play well in his spot start the other night, but he did play a lot of minutes. While I like VanVleet, there is no guarantee that he’ll start again tonight. A fade in tournaments could create some leverage on the field.
C.J. Miles and OG Anunboy both played over 30 minutes in Game 3, but that was largely thanks to the benching of DeRozan. I don’t expect that to happen again. I’d expect Miles to play 20-22 minutes and Anunboy to play 28-30 minutes tonight. Of the two, I slightly prefer Anunboy, but you can make a case for both. Serge Ibaka came off the bench the other night and had his best game of the series. He’s a wildcard at this point, but one that deserves consideration in tournaments. His price is cheap and since we don’t officially know who is going to start, his ownership should be reasonable in all formats. Jonas Valanciunas has shown his upside, but he is wildly inconsistent with both his minutes and his fantasy production. With Joel Embiid a near lock in my lineups, I’m not going to have room for Big Val, even in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -7.7 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,300 | $8,000 | $15,600 | 34.9 | 3.2 | 32.2 | 4.6 | 1.08 | 21.8% | 21 | 21 | 22 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,700 | $7,500 | $15,900 | 37.5 | -1.6 | 33.9 | 1.8 | 1.11 | 28.5% | 20 | 26 | 27 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,700 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 4.2 | 0.60 | 10.9% | 28 | 26 | 5 |
| Serge Ibaka | $4,700 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 25.3 | -4.7 | 27.5 | -0.7 | 0.92 | 16.9% | 23 | 13 | 21 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $7,400 | $7,100 | $13,100 | 27.1 | 5.2 | 22.4 | 3.0 | 1.21 | 19.2% | 9 | 10 | 15 |
| Delon Wright | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 19.2 | 2.2 | 20.8 | 1.1 | 0.92 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Fred VanVleet | $3,800 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 18.9 | -6.8 | 20.0 | -1.2 | 0.94 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| C.J. Miles | $3,700 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 15.6 | -0.6 | 19.1 | 3.6 | 0.82 | 20.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet (Cash), Serge Ibaka (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Fred VanVleet (GPP), Serge Ibaka (Cash), DeMar DeRozan, OG Anunboy, C.J. Miles
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are a game away from returning to yet another Eastern Conference Championship. Well, I should say that LeBron James is one game away from returning to the Eastern Conference Finals. It’s been the LeBron show all postseason and I don’t expect it to stop now. The Cavaliers come into the game as 5.5-point favorites and they have the highest implied total on the board at 109.5 points.
LeBron is clearly the top projected player in the slate and it’s not all that difficult to fit him into lineups tonight. This may sound crazy, but I don’t think that he’s a must play in tournaments. I mentioned earlier that Joel Embiid is my favorite superstar when factoring in salaries. In order for LeBron to reach 5x on FanDuel, he needs to score 72.5 fantasy points. Is he capable of that? Absolutely, but I’ll go out on a limb and say that I like the chances for Embiid, Kevin Love, and Ben Simmons to hit 5x more. Now, they aren’t a lock for 55 fantasy points like LeBron, but I do think that’s a viable tournament strategy tonight. For cash games, lock and load LeBron.
After sitting in the corner in the first eight playoff games, Love is finally starting to come alive. He is being aggressive on the glass and in the paint and it has led to a combined 100 fantasy points in his last two games. He’s an elite play in all formats tonight. The rest of the Cavaliers are inconsistent, but still viable in a slate this size. George Hill is one of the best values at point guard, J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver are nice values at shooting guard, and Jeff Green seems to have a bigger role each and every game. I will be using the Cavaliers’ values as lineups fillers for both cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 20.0 | -5.0 | 27.0 | -1.3 | 0.74 | 15.6% | 7 | 10 | 2 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 16.5 | 0.9 | 28.1 | 4.6 | 0.59 | 12.5% | 5 | 3 | 22 |
| Kyle Korver | $4,600 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 15.4 | 1.2 | 21.6 | 4.4 | 0.71 | 14.2% | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| LeBron James | $14,500 | $12,100 | $23,900 | 54.2 | 9.5 | 36.9 | 4.8 | 1.47 | 30.1% | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Kevin Love | $7,800 | $7,800 | $14,000 | 33.1 | -3.7 | 28.0 | 5.7 | 1.18 | 21.9% | 10 | 20 | 21 |
| Jeff Green | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.3 | -1.8 | 23.4 | -1.0 | 0.78 | 16.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tristan Thompson | $4,000 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 15.7 | -4.7 | 20.2 | -4.0 | 0.78 | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |