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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-17 02:09:43

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors – 12:30 PM

Indiana Pacers Toronto Raptors
indiananba Vegas Total 194.5 torontonba Vegas Total 194.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 100.5
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7 Opp. Season 9 12 5 8 15
Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4 Last 3 Weeks 9 21 4 8 18

Indiana Pacers

Record: 45-37 — Road: 19-22 — Last 10: 7-3

This could be one of the more intriguing series of the first round. The Pacers didn’t have the best second half of the season, but they are still a very capable team that could push this series to six or seven games. For Game 1, the Pacers are listed as 6.5-point underdogs with the total for the game set at 194.5 points. Of the eight teams in action Saturday, the Pacers have the lowest team total at only 94 points. They also have the lowest projected point differential at -8.2. The Raptors have a stout defense, ranking 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While I expect the Pacers to be competitive in this series, I may wait until the series shifts to Indiana before targeting them in DFS. I see them as secondary options for Game 1.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$8,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 31.2 -3.6 27.6 -7.2
FPPG (FD) 39.1 37.0 -2.1 31.2 -7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 23.6 -1.6 23.0 -2.2

I expect George to see a nice minutes boost in this series. While that is great for his fantasy appeal, the matchup is a difficult one. The Raptors have been tough on small forwards and he will have to deal with DeMarre Carroll. The other issue is that there aren’t many value plays on the slate, so we can only pay up for one or two superstars. For those reasons, George is a secondary option.

Ian Mahinmi
ian-mahinmi-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$4,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.6 26.9 1.3 23.0 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 22.7 25.8 3.1 23.3 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 12.7 14.7 2.0 16.3 3.6

Center is a tough position on Saturday. I’m leaning toward Dwight Howard as my favorite play, but Mahinmi is worth a look if you want to save some salary cap space. He is a very productive player (0.89 FP/min) and I have him projected to play 26-28 minutes in this game.

George Hill
george-hill-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.1 29.3 -4.8 30.5 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 23.3 19.0 -4.2 23.3 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.0 13.0 -1.0 13.7 -0.3

Hill is a lot like Mahinmi in that he should play big minutes, but the matchup is holding him back from being an elite play. I like the cheap salary, but he has to deal with Kyle Lowry, who is one of the best defensive point guards in the NBA.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 56-26 — Home: 32-9 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors were basically the best team in the Eastern Conference during the second half of the season. The main question heading into the playoffs is the health of Kyle Lowry. He is fully expected to play in the series, but hasn’t been the same offensively since hurting his elbow. The Raptors open the series as 6.5-point favorites at home and one thing is for sure – the Air Canada Centre is going to be rocking. I’m sure they will have Drake there to rally the troops. The Raptors are projected to score 100.5 points, which gives them the fifth lowest team total and the fifth lowest projected point differential. It will be interesting to see if DeMarre Carroll enters the starting lineup. Beat writers are speculating that he should play 25-30, which will cut into the playing time of Norman Powell.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.0 35.0 -2.0 30.8 -6.2
FPPG (FD) 38.5 29.0 -9.5 28.5 -10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.8 -0.1 23.0 0.1

Lowry is more of a secondary play on FanDuel, but is way too cheap on DraftKings. Even in a bad matchup against the Pacers, he is arguably the top point guard option on the board at a price of only $7,200. He could realistically play 40 minutes in this game.

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$7,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 33.5 -2.4 30.5 -5.4
FPPG (FD) 35.3 35.4 0.1 29.8 -5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 27.1 1.0 26.4 0.4

DeRozan is priced similarly as Kyle Lowry. His price on FanDuel makes him more of a secondary option, but he can be considered an elite play on DraftKings at $7,400. He is one of the most consistent fantasy options in the NBA and he actually draws a slightly better matchup than Lowry.

Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.9 26.5 0.6 22.0 -3.9
FPPG (FD) 26.9 28.1 1.2 24.8 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.0 17.8 0.8 21.9 4.9

There are a lot of players that I expect to see a minutes boost in the playoffs, but Valanciunas is not one of them. He is typically at his best when he plays between 25-30 minutes. That’s not to say that the Raptors won’t play him more than that if he is playing well, but 25-30 seems like a safe projection.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 3:30 PM

Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors
houstonnba Vegas Total 225.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 225.0
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 106.0 Team Proj. 119.0
Team Pace 100.10 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19 Opp. Season 13 23 29 29 18
Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6 Last 3 Weeks 14 23 27 6 17

Houston Rockets

Record: 41-41 — Road: 18-23 — Last 10: 6-4

The Rockets are playing with house money at this point. After losing to the Suns with only a few games left in the season, it looked like they would miss the playoffs. Thanks to some bad losses for the Jazz, Houston snuck in as the eighth seed. While they will likely get shredded by the Warriors, the spread for this game is lower than I expected it to be. If this game stays within 15 points, it will provide a ton of fantasy appeal. The total for the game is set at 225 points, which is easily the highest on the board. The Rockets are projected to score 106 points, which gives them the third highest team total on the board.

Elite Plays

Dwight Howard
dwight-howard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 28.2 -3.9 29.7 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 32.9 27.0 -5.9 31.3 -1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 12.2 -2.4 13.3 -1.2

It pains me to list Howard as an elite play, but that’s where we are in this four game slate. Howard should see a nice minutes boost in this series and we saw how well he played in last year’s playoffs. If he sees 35 minutes, he should be able to reach and exceed value in an uptempo game against the Warriors.

Secondary Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,800 Salary:$10,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 38.1 40.5 2.4 38.1 0.0
FPPG (FD) 47.7 50.0 2.3 47.8 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 27.7 0.2 29.3 1.9

Harden was an elite play for a stretch of nearly three weeks. The Rockets were basically one of the only teams in must win mode and he was one of the only superstars with something to play for. Now that we are in the postseason, everyone has something to play for. I love the upside that he provides, but have him ranked behind Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook.

Trevor Ariza
trevor-ariza-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$5,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 36.4 1.1 33.8 -1.5
FPPG (FD) 24.8 25.3 0.6 27.3 2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 13.6 13.7 0.1 14.3 0.7

Ariza is a decent mid-range option at small forward. He is at his best in uptempo games where he can spot up in transition. He should get plenty of open looks in this series, but his fantasy production hinges on whether or not his shot is falling. For that reason, Ariza is best suited for tournaments.

Patrick Beverley
patrick-beverley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.7 31.7 3.0 32.0 3.3
FPPG (FD) 21.1 28.5 7.4 31.0 9.9
TO-Adj. Usage 13.7 14.8 1.1 14.1 0.4

Beverley is one of the best values at point guard. He played very well down the stretch of the regular season, averaging 31 fantasy points in his last five games. As he will be tasked with defending Stephen Curry, he may average close to 35 minutes per game if he can stay out of foul trouble.

Golden State Warriors

Record: 73-9 — Home: 39-2 — Last 10: 8-2

The Warriors capped off the best regular season in NBA history with a win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. They now have to turn their attention to the postseason. It will be interesting to see how their season is remembered if they aren’t able to defend their title. In order to do just that, they have to get by the Rockets in the first round. The Warriors are 13-point favorites in Game 1 with the highest team total on the board at 119 points. They also have the highest projected point differential at +4.1. All five starters are in play here, with Andre Iguodala also deserving a look off the bench. Harrison Barnes is the only one that isn’t featured below. He is a viable secondary play in his own right, but I prefer Iguodala with the discount.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,200 Salary:$10,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.40 FP/Min:1.54
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.2 35.9 1.7 35.6 1.4
FPPG (FD) 47.9 48.3 0.4 50.7 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 27.1 -0.7 29.1 1.3

We are splitting hairs at the top, but I give a small edge to Stephen Curry over Russell Westbrook as my favorite overall play in this slate. Curry has been on fire all season and he should play 35+ minutes per game now that we are into the postseason. He should tear up this Rockets’ so-called defense.

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 35.8 1.1 34.2 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 39.1 41.0 1.9 34.1 -5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 15.5 -0.5 14.8 -1.2

This is a perfect storm for Green. He has been in tremendous form recently, he draws an elite matchup against the Rockets, and he should see a minutes boost in the postseason. His price has come up, but he is an elite play in all league formats.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$6,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 35.5 2.2 34.8 1.5
FPPG (FD) 30.9 29.2 -1.7 28.8 -2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 20.3 -2.0 18.9 -3.4

Thompson has a boom or bust nature to his game, but you have to think he’s going to have some success in this series. These are two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA and the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Secondary Plays

Andrew Bogut
andrew-bogut-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$3,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.7 20.3 -0.4 23.8 3.1
FPPG (FD) 20.2 16.8 -3.3 23.0 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 9.5 7.3 -2.1 7.5 -1.9

Bogut is my sneaky play at center. He saw extended minutes in both of the Warriors’ first two games against the Rockets and I expect him to play 25+ minutes per game in this series. They will want him in there to defend Dwight Howard. At his price, he is an elite GPP play.

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.6 24.7 -1.9 24.7 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 18.5 12.9 -5.6 12.9 -5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 8.2 -2.6 8.2 -2.6

Iguodala is another player that offers good value on a slate that really lacks punt plays. Iguodala did not play well down the stretch of the regular season, but he was the Finals MVP last year. Iguodala should see 28-30 minutes per game and he makes a strong value play in all league formats.

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks – 7:00 PM

Boston Celtics Atlanta Hawks
bostonnba Vegas Total 205.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 101.10 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 8 19 14 12 22 Opp. Season 3 10 23 27 24
Last 3 Weeks 24 13 13 12 23 Last 3 Weeks 17 17 23 27 12

Boston Celtics

Record: 48-34 — Road: 20-21 — Last 10: 6-4

This is expected to be one of the most competitive series in the first round. These teams are evenly matched and are actually mirror images of each other. While they can both score, their calling card is on defense. The Celtics open the series as 5.5-point underdogs and they are projected to score 100 points, which gives them the third lowest team total and the second lowest projected point differential. The way to attack the Hawks this season has been down low. They are ranked 28th in rebounding differential and they are a below average team in terms of defending the paint. The problem is that the best targets on the Celtics are in the backcourt.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 30.3 -1.9 29.1 -3.1
FPPG (FD) 34.8 31.8 -3.0 32.5 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 28.2 1.9 27.1 0.7

Thomas draws a tough matchup against the Hawks, who have been one of the toughest teams in the NBA against point guards. With Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook in this slate, I would only look at Thomas in tournaments.

Jae Crowder
jae-crowder-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.6 29.3 -2.3 28.0 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 26.3 23.7 -2.6 18.7 -7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 17.6 1.5 15.7 -0.4

Crowder is a borderline elite play at small forward. It may be difficult to pay up for Kevin Durant, which leaves us with a lot of mediocre options at the position. Crowder should see 32-34 minutes per game in this series and he is a player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet.

Amir Johnson
amir-johnson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.92
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 23.4 0.6 22.0 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 20.0 20.7 0.6 20.8 0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 11.3 10.1 -1.1 10.8 -0.5

I haven’t been on the Johnson bandwagon like a lot of people, but his recent form is certainly worth noting. In his last ten games, he is averaging 21 fantasy points in 23 minutes per contest. The minutes are always a question mark, but he should be a monster on the glass against the Hawks.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 48-34 — Home: 27-14 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks had a great second half to the season and ended up securing homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. That could prove to be critical, as it may end up being the difference in this series. The Hawks are 5.5 point favorites in Game 1 with an implied team total of 105.5 points. While the Celtics have been stout defensively this season, the Hawks have the second highest projected point differential at +2.7. The Celtics are a lot like the Hawks in that the best way to attack them is in the frontcourt. Boston has one of the best defensive backcourts in the NBA.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.15 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 33.7 1.0 34.7 2.0
FPPG (FD) 37.5 44.0 6.6 44.7 7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 19.4 -0.5 19.5 -0.4

Decisions have to be made in this slate. One decision that most of us will have to make is Millsap or Draymond Green. Ideally, we could target both players, but that would potentially mean giving up exposure to one of the superstars. I have the two ranked nearly identical, but Millsap comes into the playoffs in better form.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague
jeff-teague-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 30.4 1.9 29.4 0.9
FPPG (FD) 28.0 33.3 5.3 30.2 2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 25.3 2.9 23.5 1.1

Teague has really played well over his last ten games, averaging 33 fantasy points per contest. He has seen his minutes go up during that stretch and I expect them to continue trending in that direction in the playoffs. I really want to play Teague here, but the Celtics have been very tough on point guards this season.

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$6,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.3 0.2 32.5 0.4
FPPG (FD) 32.3 32.3 0.0 34.1 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 18.4 0.5 18.7 0.7

Horford is probably the safest center play on the board. The Celtics are not a great rebounding team and they haven’t fared well against opposing centers. Dollar for dollar, I still prefer Dwight Howard, but the more that I think about it, the more it makes sense to go with Horford in cash games.

Kent Bazemore
kent-bazemore-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.8 28.3 0.5 27.6 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 23.1 28.3 5.3 34.6 11.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 16.9 0.8 20.5 4.4

Bazemore is an elite GPP play and a borderline cash game play. If you take out the blowout against the Wizards, he has been in tremendous form. In his previous four games, he averaged 32 minutes and close to 40 fantasy points per contest.

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 PM

Dallas Mavericks Oklahoma City Thunder
dallasnba Vegas Total 208.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 110.3
Team Pace 96.40 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Jose Juan Barea Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 16 21 13 7 4 Opp. Season 11 11 9 25 17
Last 3 Weeks 6 20 26 5 5 Last 3 Weeks 2 14 16 3 10

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 42-40 — Road: 19-22 — Last 10: 7-3

I checked out the series odds and noticed that Vegas is giving the Pistons a better chance to beat the Cavaliers than they are giving the Mavericks to beat the Thunder. Dallas is limping into the playoffs and they open up as 12-point underdogs in Game 1. The Mavericks are only projected to score 98.3 points, which gives them the second lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential on the board. J.J. Barea is listed as probable for this game, although he has been dealing with a groin injury. He is tentatively expected to start next to Deron Williams, but the Mavericks haven’t announced an official lineup yet.

Elite Plays

Wesley Matthews
wesley-matthews-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.66
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.9 37.9 4.0 38.8 4.9
FPPG (FD) 20.4 22.4 2.0 20.2 -0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 14.8 0.0 14.1 -0.7

Matthews is the one Mavericks’ player that I feel comfortable rostering in cash games. His minutes are secure (he could see around 40 per game) and his role in the offense has grown since Chandler Parsons went down with his injury.

Secondary Plays

Deron Williams
deron-williams-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$5,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 34.0 1.6 34.0 1.6
FPPG (FD) 26.2 27.9 1.7 27.9 1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 19.1 20.0 0.8 20.0 0.8

Targeting point guards against the Thunder is always a viable strategy, but Williams has been battling injuries down the stretch of the season. If I knew that he was guaranteed to play 35 minutes, I would bump him up to an elite play. I’m just a little concerned about the injuries, especially since J.J. Barea and Devin Harris are both expected to play.

Jose Juan Barea
j-j-barea-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$5,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.5 28.2 5.7 24.3 1.8
FPPG (FD) 19.0 29.9 10.9 23.3 4.3
TO-Adj. Usage 20.8 25.4 4.5 22.1 1.2

The same applies to Barea. If I knew that he was going to play 30+ minutes, I would bump him up to an elite play. He has been dealing with a groin injury and even though he is expected to play, that could easily flare up. At his price and with his recent role in the offense, I wouldn’t mind using him in cash games or tournaments. However, he does come with some risk attached to him.

Zaza Pachulia
zaza-pachulia-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$3,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.4 22.6 -3.8 23.9 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 23.0 15.1 -7.9 16.8 -6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 12.9 8.1 -4.7 8.5 -4.3

David Lee was playing around 20 minutes per game. He is not expected to play in Game 1 of this series. Do the Mavericks really want to play Salah Mejri 30 minutes? While I typically don’t like to speculate on rotations, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pachulia plays around 30 minutes and ends up being the best value play on the board.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 55-27 — Home: 32-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Thunder didn’t have a lot to play for in the last few weeks of the season, so we shouldn’t be alarmed by their 5-5 record in their last ten games. They still have two of the top five players in the NBA and are overwhelming favorites in this series. They open up as 12-point favorites in Game 1. They are projected to score 110.3 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the third highest projected point differential. While I love both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, there is no longer an abundance of value plays. It’s going to be tough to afford more than one superstar.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,700 Salary:$10,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.4 33.1 -1.3 29.3 -5.1
FPPG (FD) 48.8 46.9 -1.9 43.5 -5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 28.3 27.7 -0.7 25.9 -2.5

Westbrook is a walking triple-double. The Thunder look primed for a long postseason run and they aren’t going to let the Mavericks stand in their way. As mentioned above, I slightly prefer Stephen Curry over him, but you really can’t go wrong with either player.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.30 FP/Min:1.41
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 34.7 -1.1 32.2 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 46.4 47.8 1.3 47.4 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 30.2 3.9 30.8 4.5

The one plus with targeting Durant as your superstar is that he plays small forward. There are a lot of great point guard options, but very few viable small forward targets. He has just as much upside as Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook, yet he’ll likely be the lowest owned of the three.

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 30.0 -2.1 28.3 -3.8
FPPG (FD) 25.4 25.6 0.3 21.6 -3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 15.9 1.1 16.5 1.6

Ibaka is a player that I hate targeting in DFS. He is far too inconsistent for my liking. However, he should see a small boost in minutes in the postseason and he draws a favorable matchup against Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious