NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 30th - Page Two
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Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors – 8:30 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 13.0 | Vegas Spread | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 96.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 20 | DvP | 10 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 14 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 19 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzles are the opposite of the Warriors as the are the worst team in the West, are last in pace and second to last in points per game. The only thing they really have in common is that they are both banged up. That means there is some value on the Grizzles that we can look at and with them being in a massive pace up game we can get exposure to some of these Grizzles.
Tyreke Evans fits this game environment well and I typically would like to target him but at his current price points I am slightly worried. If I play him I think he is more in play on DraftKings. Andrew Harrison was the value play we were all over this week but he disappointed last game and Chalmers took minutes from him. I don’t think Harrison is a value play that I’m in love with, but I think he is interesting and someone we should consider. Jamychal Green is questionable and if he doesn’t play I think Jarell Martin would be in play if Green sits. His price has gone up slightly and Wright will be back, but I think Martin could be in play if Green sits. He is not someone I am getting heavily exposed to, but if news drops the right way he could be in play. Marc Gasol is the last guy to consider on the Grizzles. He is in play but not someone I love on this slate. I think there are other Centers I prefer, but I wouldn’t talk someone off Marc Gasol.
Notable Injuries Jamychal Green (questionable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 97.5 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $8,600 | $7,700 | $13,700 | 34.4 | 15.3 | 30.8 | 4.4 | 1.12 | 27.0% | 11 | 15 | 14 |
| Andrew Harrison | $4,300 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 15.5 | 7.4 | 20.6 | 10.5 | 0.75 | 18.5% | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| Dillon Brooks | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 15.4 | -0.8 | 28.0 | 0.8 | 0.55 | 12.2% | 9 | 17 | 12 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,200 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 17.1 | 3.0 | 0.75 | 13.4% | 11 | 22 | 1 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,500 | $8,000 | $15,500 | 38.7 | 0.9 | 35.1 | 0.7 | 1.10 | 24.2% | 9 | 20 | 1 |
| Brandan Wright | $3,700 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 15.0 | 1.2 | 14.7 | 2.0 | 1.02 | 13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans (dk only)
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors took a tough loss to the Charlotte Hornets last night at home and are on their third game in four nights and coming off a second half of a back to back. They get a matchup against the worst team in the Western Conference in the Memphis Grizzles. Despite the Grizzles having such a poor record, they are ranked fifth in points allowed per game but that is partially due to their slow pace, which at 95.4 is the slowest in the league.
This slow paced game is not going to be great for fantasy points, but this is still the Golden State Warriors who are ranked first in points per game we are talking about. Kevin Durant rolled his ankle yesterday but stayed in the game. I am sure that he will play but on a third game in four nights, after rolling his ankle, and against a slow-paced team I will pass on Kevin Durant. I understand on DraftKings he gets a discount for the slow pace, but I still prefer LBJ if I must pay up at Small Forward. Kevin Durant is a superstar and matchup proof but on this slate, I think I am going to fade him. Jordan Bell is still too cheap and has been producing in limited time. The pace isn’t great, but they will need his size and I think Bell is still a decent value that we can play.
Instead of playing Durant, I would prefer to look at Draymond Green for only $7400 on DraftKings. He still has a lot of upside at that price and gets a matchup against the Grizzles who are struggling against opposing bigs. I think this is a good spot for him to flash his upside and do some heavy lifting for the Warriors. Klay Thompson is only $6600, and I think he is viable at that price. He has 15 or more shot attempts in 9 of his last 10 games and at this price he has a nice floor with some upside. It might be a tough matchup, but Klay is a secondary option that I would consider in all formats. Other than that, I don’t need to mess with any other options on the Warriors this is not the greatest matchup for them and we don’t need to jam them in on this slate.
Notable Injuries Steph Curry (probable), Omri Casspi (questionable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 114.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -5.4 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 95.4 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,700 | $8,100 | $17,900 | 45.1 | 32.6 | 1.38 | 29.0% | 7 | 10 | 19 | ||
| Klay Thompson | $7,100 | $6,600 | $14,000 | 31.5 | -3.8 | 33.9 | -0.3 | 0.93 | 21.1% | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| Kevin Durant | $11,000 | $10,300 | $20,000 | 48.2 | 2.3 | 34.6 | 0.0 | 1.39 | 26.9% | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Draymond Green | $8,200 | $7,400 | $13,900 | 36.3 | 1.9 | 32.2 | -0.1 | 1.13 | 15.9% | 19 | 10 | 12 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,700 | $3,200 | $6,500 | 14.7 | -4.5 | 14.3 | -0.6 | 1.03 | 13.6% | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 18.6 | -0.6 | 26.4 | -4.1 | 0.71 | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Bell | $4,900 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 17.3 | 15.0 | 14.4 | 9.4 | 1.20 | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Draymond Green (dk tournaments)
Secondary Plays – Jordan Bell and Klay Thompson
Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Denver Nuggets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.0 |  | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 111.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Richaun Holmes | Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Wilson Chandler | Mason Plumlee | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 11 | DvP | 22 | 26 | 22 | 20 | 27 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 25 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 30 | 1 | 28 | 20 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers come into this game after a depressing loss to the Blazers and have only won two of their last ten games. Joel Embiid has not played a ton recently and the Sixers have really struggled defensively without him. The Sixers are the second fastest paced team in the league and are ranked seventh in points per game. This is an offense that relies a lot on Embiid, but without him they can still score and should provide a lot of fantasy value tonight.
The Nuggets are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency and a team that could get taken advantage of. This is a 215-team total and a spot that I want to target. Richaun Holmes should see more time in this game and is an elite value play on this slate. My concern is that in this matchup against Jokic he could get into some foul trouble early. If he does this could cause some issues for him, but if he doesn’t I expect him to smash in this spot. Two of the biggest beneficiaries with Embiid out that are safe value plays is Dario Saric. His price is too cheap for the situation he is in and I will be looking to load up in this spot. Saric is going to be a sharp play that hopefully others miss out on. He is an elite play for me with all the shot attempts he should get and I expect a big game out of him today. (Did analysis thinking Covington would play with him doubtful this would be a massive bump to Holmes and Dario).
JJ Redick and TJ McConnell are interesting values that I don’t hate mixing in tournaments but are more secondary plays for me. They see small boosts with no Embiid and are in consideration but not in amazing spots. The last guy I really want to discuss is Ben Simmons. He seems to have hit his rookie wall a bit, but is at one of the cheapest prices we have seen in a while. This will also be his first game in Denver and could have some issues with the altitude for the first time. The upside is there for him at this price but instead of playing Simmons I will look to get more exposure to Saric. If you are playing multiple teams though I would make sure to get a piece of Simmons.
Notable Injuries Joel Embiid (out), Robert Covington (doubtful)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (6 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,700 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 42.8 | -14.0 | 36.2 | -3.0 | 1.18 | 23.1% | 24 | 27 | 25 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,100 | $5,300 | $11,000 | 25.7 | 5.0 | 33.5 | -3.8 | 0.77 | 18.8% | 22 | 3 | 3 |
| Robert Covington | $6,100 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 30.4 | -5.3 | 32.7 | -0.3 | 0.93 | 15.9% | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| Dario Saric | $6,500 | $6,200 | $13,400 | 26.2 | 8.8 | 30.5 | 3.7 | 0.86 | 17.3% | 18 | 21 | 14 |
| Richaun Holmes | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 17.0 | 0.8 | 16.6 | -1.2 | 1.02 | 16.1% | 19 | 11 | 6 |
| Amir Johnson | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 16.0 | 1.2 | 15.5 | 0.9 | 1.03 | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| T.J. McConnell | $4,800 | $4,300 | $8,800 | 21.1 | 4.7 | 24.3 | 1.8 | 0.87 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons, JJ Redick and TJ McConnell
Denver Nuggets
This is a great game for the Nuggets who have one of the highest totals on the slate and are a home favorite. The Sixers have struggled a ton defensively without Embiid and are allowing the 25th most points per game this season. The Sixers are also the second fastest paced team in the league, so this is a great spot to target Denver.
This leaves us with one of my favorite plays of the night in Nikola Jokic for $8600. The Joker is an absolute beast and still way too cheap especially for a matchup against the Sixers without Embiid. He might be a little pricey on FanDuel but he is still in play and on DraftKings is an elite option for me. I will load up on Jokic on both sites. I also like mixing in Mason Plumlee here if we hear he should get run. I think there is some upside for him and Lyles if you need a cheaper option as a big man is also in play. Although I prefer to go to Gary Harris or Will Barton for cheap exposure because I expect them to play a ton and have nice floor and upside here. Gary Harris is simply your safer option with a nice floor and upside, but your tournament guy is Will Barton. Barton fits this fast paced up and down style of game and is another guy I love in this spot. I will get a ton of exposure to Barton in tournaments and am not afraid to pair him up with Jokic.
To summarize for you, Jokic is my favorite play here along with Gary Harris and Will Barton as other guards I want exposure to. Jamal Murray is similar priced, but I prefer Harris in cash and Barton in tournaments. If I mix in anyone else, it would be Plumlee and Lyles as my cheap big men options. I don’t love Wilson Chandler here and although his price is low I just would prefer other Denver options. This is my favorite game to stack on the slate and I would get a ton of exposure to this one.
Notable Injuries Juancho Hernangomez ( questionable) and Malik Beasley (questionable)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.0 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,800 | 24.7 | 5.3 | 28.5 | 5.1 | 0.87 | 22.2% | 9 | 22 | 1 |
| Gary Harris | $6,300 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 28.7 | -1.9 | 34.6 | 3.3 | 0.83 | 18.1% | 28 | 26 | 30 |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,200 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 20.9 | 5.0 | 31.0 | 3.6 | 0.67 | 14.2% | 14 | 22 | 1 |
| Mason Plumlee | $5,500 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 20.1 | 3.0 | 20.1 | 3.7 | 1.00 | 15.1% | 15 | 20 | 28 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,500 | $8,600 | $15,800 | 38.7 | 2.4 | 30.1 | 5.1 | 1.28 | 21.3% | 14 | 27 | 20 |
| Will Barton | $6,200 | $6,000 | $12,400 | 30.1 | -0.3 | 31.3 | -0.2 | 0.96 | 20.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Trey Lyles | $5,700 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 17.2 | 11.8 | 18.1 | 12.2 | 0.95 | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |