NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 30th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:00 PM ET
| New York Knicks | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.0 |  | Vegas Total | 217.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.8 | Implied Team Total | 111.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 27 | 29 | 26 | 10 | DvP | 28 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 6 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 24 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 19 | 22 | 17 | 26 | |
New York Knicks
The Knicks are going the wrong way, currently on a four-game losing streak and struggling recently. This could be a good get right spot against a Pelicans team on a second night of a back to back after a loss to Dallas. The Pelicans have been struggling defensively this year, ranked 29th in points per game and 23rd in rebounding efficiency. They are also ranked 6th in pace which is going to provide a ton of fantasy goodness. The Knicks are not my favorite team to play in DFS but when they draw matchups like this they can’t go overlooked.
Kristaps Porzingis is the first play that comes to mind especially on DraftKings where he is a bargain for only $8400. He has been complaining a ton to the media about not getting a ton of calls so I’m curious to see how that affects him in this game. Despite the four-game losing streak Kristaps is averaging 40.25 fantasy points or more in his last four games. The Pelicans are also ranked 28th in the league against opposing Power Forwards so this is a juicy matchup for Porzingis. He is a little pricey on FanDuel but since we need to roster two Power Forwards he is firmly in play over there as well. His size will be needed and if Porzingis doesn’t get himself in foul trouble I expect him to play a ton of minutes and be an elite play on this slate.
Enes Kanter chalk day blew up in our faces after his 55.5 and 60.5 fantasy outings. We should have seen that coming but I do think at only $6200 we can go back to him. You won’t have to worry about his minutes because he should play a ton against another team that runs two big men. Kanter will likely get his 30 minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble and for his price he has upside. I will list him as a secondary play because there comes some risk with Kanter. The Pelicans also struggle against wing players and Courtney Lee has been playing well averaging 28.3 DraftKings points per game in his last 5. Lee is still cheap enough and is a safe option with upside at that price. The last guy that I have interest in would be Frank Ntilikina. He is only $3900 but his minutes are trending upward and coming off two big games it feels like you’re chasing but at that price he shouldn’t burn you too badly. He is a value that I would throw in my player pool when building tournament lineups and would try and get small exposure to because of his upside.
Notable Injuries Tim Hardaway Jr. (out)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.6 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,400 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 20.0 | 0.8 | 26.0 | -0.9 | 0.77 | 17.0% | 19 | 18 | 24 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,600 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 25.1 | 3.3 | 32.4 | 3.2 | 0.77 | 16.8% | 29 | 27 | 8 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 18.7 | 6.4 | 0.48 | 10.2% | 20 | 29 | 29 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,200 | $8,400 | $16,900 | 40.4 | 4.4 | 32.2 | 4.2 | 1.26 | 28.9% | 22 | 26 | 2 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,100 | $6,200 | $12,700 | 29.9 | 8.0 | 25.7 | 0.5 | 1.16 | 18.7% | 19 | 10 | 9 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 19.3 | -1.5 | 16.5 | -2.4 | 1.17 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Doug McDermott | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 13.8 | -2.4 | 24.1 | -3.1 | 0.57 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,600 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 16.2 | 4.3 | 21.1 | 5.5 | 0.77 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis and Courtney Lee
Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are playing on the second night of a back to back against the Knicks and this is also their third game in four nights. There could be some fatigue here from the Pelicans but that won’t stop me from playing New Orleans. The Pelicans have the highest implied total on the slate at 111 points and average 111.3 points per game, which is the third highest in the league. The Pelicans can score with the best of them and the Knicks are not a defensive team that I fear, ranked 15th in defensive efficiency.
DeMarcus Cousins was a hero yesterday for me dropping 83 fantasy points. It was a great matchup against one of the worst teams in the league against opposing bigs, but now they get the complete opposite. The Knicks are ranked 6th against opposing Centers and are third in rebounding differential. This will not be an easy matchup for Cousins and on their third game in four nights I think I will choose to pay up for other options. I will list Cousins as a secondary play he is not someone that I love fading, but if I’m playing multiple lineups and value doesn’t open a ton then I think I will go another route. There is currently some value that I’m interested in at center and forward where I don’t feel the need to pay for him at this time.
I feel similar about Anthony Davis and instead of paying for Davis I think I prefer other options. It’s weird to think that with them having the highest implied total and I will keep him as a secondary play because I don’t think they should go overlooked and if more value opens at other positions I could certainly see myself jamming them in. The Knicks struggle against point guards and Rajon Rondo is coming off two good games. He is priced up which makes him strictly a tournament play – in only 19 minutes yesterday he had 29.4 fantasy points! Rondo is a guy who can get going on almost any slate and if you want exposure to this total, I don’t hate going Rondo in tournaments with the upside he’s been showing recently. Another cheap way to get exposure to this game is through E’Twaun Moore. He plays a ton of minutes and is a cheap way to get exposure to the highest total on the board. Last play to discuss is Jrue Holiday who is just a pass for me. If you want to play him in tournaments I won’t talk you off it, but I just don’t play him often and prefer other Shooting Guards on this slate.
Notable Injuries Solomon Hill and Tony Allen (out)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.1 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $6,400 | $6,400 | $13,600 | 25.6 | -4.3 | 25.2 | -2.6 | 1.01 | 16.4% | 29 | 28 | 16 |
| Jrue Holiday | $7,700 | $7,100 | $13,300 | 34.6 | 0.5 | 36.5 | -4.3 | 0.95 | 20.3% | 4 | 12 | 19 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,600 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 21.5 | 0.4 | 32.2 | -2.7 | 0.67 | 14.5% | 21 | 10 | 22 |
| Anthony Davis | $10,900 | $10,500 | $19,200 | 49.0 | 1.6 | 35.0 | -2.1 | 1.40 | 23.4% | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,200 | $10,700 | $19,600 | 51.9 | -1.7 | 35.1 | -2.8 | 1.48 | 28.0% | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| Jameer Nelson | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 15.6 | -7.2 | 24.0 | -7.0 | 0.65 | 12.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None ( might move Cousins and Davis to elite if more value opens up)
Secondary Plays – DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis
San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.0 | Vegas Spread | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | Luke Kennard | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 17 | 30 | 13 | 13 | DvP | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 11 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 2 | |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are starting to get healthier and draw a matchup against a tough Pistons team that’s ranked 6th in points allowed per game and 11th in Defensive Efficiency. This game is a 196 total and the lowest on the slate. This is not a game that I typically get a ton of exposure to but with some underpriced players and value due to injuries there are options that we have to give a strong look at.
The Spurs really tilted everyone the other day with injury news but at least they gave us ten minutes to take Kawhi Leonard out of our lineups. Speaking of Kawhi Leonard he is on track to play this game and after sitting the other night I wouldn’t be shocked if they played him and sat LaMarcus Aldridge. They talked about possibly sitting both and only Kawhi sat last game, so I could see LMA sitting, but I am just recklessly speculating. Either way I love Kawhi on this slate because he is way too cheap, coming off rest, and gets the best matchup in the league against opposing Small Forwards. On FanDuel, Kawhi feels like too much, but I think he’s viable at $7400 while on DraftKings for $6300 I will just hit the lock button unless I hear about a minute restriction. I’m assuming he will play between 25-27 minutes and at that price on DK he is an elite play for me.
LaMarcus Aldridge doesn’t draw a bad matchup here but if I play one of these bigs, I think I lean Pau Gasol even though he is expensive. Against Andre Drummond Gasol is averaging 20.75 points 11.25 rebounds and 4 assists in his last four games. I get Gasol is expensive, but there is still upside here and I think he is a great low owned tournament play. Tony Parker is another tournament dart that you can throw against Ish Smith defense but other than that I think I am keeping my Spurs to Kawhi Leonard and that’s about it.
Notable Injuries Rudy Gay ( out), Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard (probable game time decisions)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.8 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $4,000 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 18.9 | 0.6 | 21.0 | 4.7 | 0.90 | 22.0% | 15 | 2 | 20 |
| Danny Green | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 21.4 | -2.7 | 27.4 | -4.7 | 0.78 | 14.6% | 3 | 17 | 13 |
| Kawhi Leonard | $7,400 | $6,300 | $14,000 | 24.1 | 2.6 | 19.0 | 4.2 | 1.27 | 26.5% | 26 | 30 | 15 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,600 | $7,500 | $13,700 | 38.4 | -1.2 | 33.5 | 0.8 | 1.15 | 25.7% | 9 | 13 | 28 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,800 | $7,000 | $14,000 | 28.5 | 11.5 | 25.1 | 3.3 | 1.14 | 18.2% | 18 | 13 | 3 |
| Kyle Anderson | $4,100 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 23.7 | -6.8 | 26.9 | -2.6 | 0.88 | 13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Patty Mills | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.8 | -6.5 | 24.8 | -2.3 | 0.72 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard
Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have a tough matchup and are only projected to score 95.3 points. The Spurs are ranked first in points allowed per game, fourth in defensive efficiency, fifth in rebounding differential and 28th in pace. This is not a matchup that I love to target, but with the recent injuries I can’t overlook every play in this game.
Ish Smith may have one of the toughest matchups on the board, but at that usage and price around the industry he is still in play. He is too cheap for the usage that he is going to see and should be popular on this slate. I doubt that I am going to fade him, but if you think the matchup is too difficult based on the ownership I won’t talk you off a tournament fade. Ish will be an elite play for me though and will be in a lot of my lineups. Andre Drummond is a Center I like to pay for, but only when he is in a great matchup. Against the Spurs is not a favorable one making him a great fade. Tobias Harris has been great and sees a nice usage bump in his current situation but on this slate, I think we can fade him along with all the other Pistons besides Ish Smith.
Notable Injuries Reggie Jackson and Avery Bradley (out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.3 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -7.2 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.5 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,000 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 18.6 | 6.8 | 20.5 | 4.5 | 0.90 | 24.3% | 14 | 3 | 11 |
| Reggie Bullock | $5,100 | $4,500 | $9,500 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 20.2 | 9.9 | 0.62 | 10.9% | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Luke Kennard | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 11.1 | -3.0 | 16.5 | 0.1 | 0.68 | 15.9% | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Tobias Harris | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,600 | 28.7 | 3.3 | 32.8 | 0.8 | 0.87 | 20.8% | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,700 | $9,300 | $17,200 | 42.9 | 1.3 | 32.5 | -2.9 | 1.32 | 18.4% | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.5 | 2.1 | 27.8 | -0.6 | 0.63 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 13.3 | -0.8 | 19.8 | 6.6 | 0.67 | 13.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Langston Galloway | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 11.2 | -3.1 | 14.6 | 2.6 | 0.77 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ish Smith
Secondary Plays – None
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.0 | Vegas Spread | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.5 | Implied Team Total | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | Kelly Olynyk | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 28 | 19 | 29 | 21 | DvP | 8 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 26 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 1 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat disappointed last night and left a lot of unhappy DFS players on Friday night. They go from one great matchup to another against the Orlando Magic. The Magic are ranked 27th in points allowed per game, 24th in defensive efficiency, 30th in rebounding differential and play at the sixth fastest pace in the league. The Heat are projected as only 1-point road favorites and projected to score 102.5 points.
With Dion Waiters and James Johnson likely out, there are still value plays that we can target in DFS. The first to consider are Wayne Ellington and Josh Richardson, with the Heat so short handed at the wings they should see a lot of minutes and opportunities. I prefer Ellington because he is a cheap way to get exposure and draws the better matchup at the shooting guard position. Tyler Johnson will certainly have a lot of usage off the bench as the back up point guard with Waiters and Johnson out. He came off a bad game yesterday, but the Magic are dead last against opposing point guards making him a great play. Goran Dragic gets a similar matchup and I rarely play him because it seems he doesn’t have a ton of upside at this price. In this matchup I don’t hate taking a shot on Dragic but if you roster him be prepared for a game of 20-30 fantasy points with no upside. “(player-popup #hassan-whiteside)Hassan Whiteside”:/players/hassan-whiteside-18664’s price may look cheap but after only seeing 20 minutes against the Nets I will continue to take the wait and see approach and not play Heat big roulette. Other than that, I will stick to the wing players and Tyler Johnson to get my Heat exposure.
Notable Injuries James Johnson, Justice Winslow and Dion Waiters (out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.3 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.1 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,600 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 28.7 | -2.9 | 31.3 | -1.7 | 0.92 | 24.4% | 23 | 30 | 26 |
| Tyler Johnson | $6,000 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 22.1 | 10.0 | 28.6 | 6.5 | 0.77 | 17.6% | 26 | 28 | 27 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,300 | 23.5 | 11.1 | 33.3 | 3.5 | 0.70 | 15.4% | 29 | 19 | 30 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 22.1 | 12.2 | 22.7 | 7.5 | 0.97 | 17.2% | 23 | 29 | 28 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,500 | $6,700 | $12,300 | 35.6 | -17.0 | 26.3 | -8.6 | 1.35 | 19.2% | 24 | 21 | 21 |
| Bam Adebayo | $5,500 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 17.6 | 8.3 | 19.8 | 8.6 | 0.89 | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 16.1 | 8.8 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 0.70 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Wayne Ellington and Tyler Johnson
Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson
Orlando Magic
The Magic are starting to get healthier but are currently 1-9 in their last ten games. This team needs to get healthy because they have been struggling since their hot start to the year. The Magic don’t have a great matchup against the Heat who are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and a bottom five team in pace. There are still some plays that I think we can play on the Magic.
Bismack Biyombo is starting to get priced up but there is still some meat on the bone at $5300 that he is firmly in play against Whiteside. I love playing Biyombo against Whiteside because I know he will be needed to try and stop him in the paint. Biyombo is too expensive for me on FanDuel, but I like his price on DraftKings and will make him a secondary play. Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier are returning from injury and in a tough matchup I will continue to take the wait and see approach. Frank Vogel said he expects both to play today but they were very sore after their last game. I will wait for their price to dip and jump when the price and matchup are right. Elfrid Payton is pricey but with no Vucevic he sees a nice usage bump and runs this offense. I like Payton as a tournament option on this slate and would be sure to get exposure to him if I was making multiple lineups. The biggest boost to Payton is when Vucevic is off the floor and at his current price no one will want to roster him, making him a great contrarian tournament option. With the return of Fournier and Gordon I am off Jonathan Simmons. I understand the price has decreased but as they pick up more responsibilities I believe Simmons production and price will continue to drop.
Notable Injuries Jonathan Isaac, Terrence Ross, Nikola Vucevic (out), Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon (expected to play)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,600 | $7,100 | $13,100 | 29.6 | 13.6 | 29.2 | 5.0 | 1.01 | 20.8% | 6 | 8 | 21 |
| Evan Fournier | $5,900 | $5,400 | $11,500 | 28.6 | -5.5 | 32.4 | -1.2 | 0.88 | 20.5% | 12 | 2 | 23 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 23.4 | -1.4 | 29.1 | 1.9 | 0.80 | 20.7% | 9 | 11 | 3 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,500 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 35.0 | -11.6 | 33.2 | -3.2 | 1.05 | 19.2% | 7 | 14 | 12 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $6,000 | $5,300 | $11,800 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 16.2 | 9.6 | 0.83 | 10.5% | 22 | 5 | 1 |
| D.J. Augustin | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 16.0 | -4.2 | 21.1 | -0.4 | 0.76 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (tournaments only) and Bismack Biyombo
Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 25 | 28 | 24 | 24 | DvP | 4 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 1 | 19 | 16 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 18 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are coming off a big come from behind victory against the Sixers on national television. Portland draws a matchup against a Hawks team that is ranked in the bottom six in the league in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. The Hawks struggle all over the basketball court and are a great target in fantasy.
The biggest news maybe on the day is will Damian Lillard play?? I sort of lean that he doesn’t play after being ruled as an in-day downgrade on Thursday and getting an easy opponent like the Hawks. I also read that Lillard struggled a little in practice with the hamstring – if he plays stay away but if he doesn’t play load up on Shabazz Napier. He would be one of the better value guards on the slate and although I think CJ McCollum wouldn’t be a bad play in this spot I would prefer the savings with Napier. If Lillard plays, I will take the wait and see approach.
We saw a chalky Valanciunas thrive yesterday against the Hawks who are ranked 24th against opposing bigs. Jusuf Nurkic on FanDuel is only $6100 and after he got his nose cut open on Thursday he got angry and went off. Angry Nurkic is not someone to mess with, and I think we can ride him out for one more game in a great matchup. $6100 is just too cheap for him on FanDuel and I will make him a secondary tournament option for me on this slate. Many of the other players like Aminu, Turner and Harkless are just not players I am looking to roster. The matchup is an easy one and if I was doing 150 lineups I could see maybe mixing in some of these options but on this slate, they seem unnecessary to take a risk on.
Notable Injuries Damian Lillard (questionable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 102.0 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $8,700 | $8,200 | $15,400 | 42.2 | -11.9 | 37.1 | -2.7 | 1.14 | 28.7% | 27 | 16 | 30 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,500 | $7,200 | 32.5 | 1.2 | 36.7 | -0.3 | 0.88 | 23.5% | 8 | 25 | 1 | |
| Evan Turner | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 17.3 | -3.4 | 26.4 | -2.3 | 0.65 | 14.7% | 30 | 28 | 19 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,100 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 22.8 | -1.2 | 29.7 | -0.8 | 0.77 | 12.0% | 16 | 24 | 16 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,100 | $6,800 | $12,700 | 29.0 | -6.9 | 27.2 | -3.6 | 1.07 | 24.0% | 23 | 24 | 8 |
| Shabazz Napier | $4,800 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 17.7 | 14.9 | 19.0 | 12.9 | 0.93 | 18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Maurice Harkless | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 14.7 | 8.6 | 22.5 | 0.9 | 0.65 | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Shabazz Napier (if Lillard doesn’t play) and Jusuf Nurkic (FanDuel only)
Secondary Plays – CJ McCollum
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are officially the worst team in the league at 9-26. They are not only bad, but they are also banged up and not a team I want to roster a ton in DFS. This is also a difficult matchup for the Hawks because the Blazers are ranked fourth in points allowed per game, fifth in defensive efficiency and ninth in rebounding differential. This is also the Hawks third game in four nights off a back to back. If there was any team to cross off and play nobody from it is the Hawks but we can talk about them a little bit.
The main reason to have interest in Dennis Schroder is the price and the usage. On DraftKings he is only $6700 and averaging 37.9 DK points in his last four games. Those numbers for his price are too cheap and if Shabazz is covering him that would be an upgrade compared to Damian Lillard who has been a lot better defensively this year. This is not a great Kent Bazemore or Taurean Prince spot, so I think I will decide not to chase the points and pass on them for better plays at the same price range. John Collins return has messed up the front court a little bit and once Dedmon returns this situation will really be dead. I think if you want to play any Hawks just play Schroder on DK and that’s all. Schroder is just way too underpriced and will be an elite play on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries Dewayne Dedmon (out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,700 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 34.4 | 3.5 | 32.2 | 1.1 | 1.07 | 28.7% | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,800 | $6,100 | $12,700 | 29.0 | 0.1 | 28.5 | -1.5 | 1.02 | 19.6% | 17 | 15 | 22 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 25.5 | -3.5 | 31.1 | -0.5 | 0.82 | 16.9% | 18 | 14 | 8 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 21.6 | 7.2 | 24.8 | 5.7 | 0.87 | 16.6% | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Miles Plumlee | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 17.7 | 3.4 | 0.69 | 10.1% | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| John Collins | $5,800 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 24.9 | 2.8 | 23.0 | 1.3 | 1.08 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 20.0 | 3.5 | 24.0 | -0.9 | 0.84 | 19.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (dk only)
Secondary Plays – None
Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz – 8:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.5 | Implied Team Total | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Thabo Sefolosha | Derrick Favors | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 12 | DvP | 20 | 24 | 26 | 23 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 16 | 11 | 1 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 14 | 25 | 18 | 28 | 25 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers come into this game as three-point road favorites and the fifth ranked team in the league in points per game. This may not look like a great matchup on paper, but without Gobert the Jazz have struggled defensively and I expect the Cavs to put some points in this matchup.
Let me start this off by saying Happy 33rd Birthday to LeBron James!! That’s right after the Cavs trip to Napa Valley to sip on some wine, they head to Utah for the King’s birthday. This wasn’t just any Napa Valley trip either, this was the Catalina Wine Mixer. This seemed like a planned trip for the Cavs to take to decompress, relax and get to know each other better. There are not a ton of studs to pay up for on this slate and I think if I have the money paying up for LBJ makes a lot of sense. This Utah team is not great defensively and struggling a ton against wing players. LeBron put up 62.3 last game out against Utah and coming off a tough loss against the Kings, I expect the LBJ to have his way with the Jazz. On FanDuel, I think its easy to go James over KD but on DraftKings it’s more of a conversation with the big price difference. Either way, James is an elite play for me on both sites.
I really don’t love a ton of other options here on Cleveland starting lineup. If I had to play one other play it would be Kevin Love in tournaments. The upside that Kevin Love has and a matchup against Derrick Favors could be good for him. Favors might struggle at defending Love at the line and Love should be able to handle Favors well enough down low. I don’t ever love playing him in cash games, but in tournaments I think the upside is here against the Jazz who are a bottom five team at defending the three-point line.
Notable Injuries None
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.3 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 10.6 | 1.5 | 17.9 | 4.0 | 0.59 | 10.7% | 20 | 24 | 7 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 17.6 | -3.2 | 30.3 | -4.3 | 0.58 | 11.9% | 15 | 1 | 16 |
| LeBron James | $11,500 | $11,500 | $20,800 | 54.8 | -2.6 | 37.4 | 0.4 | 1.46 | 29.9% | 14 | 16 | 11 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,600 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 15.8 | 5.2 | 26.1 | 4.7 | 0.61 | 13.5% | 9 | 7 | 1 |
| Kevin Love | $8,000 | $8,500 | $16,500 | 36.7 | 5.0 | 29.6 | 1.5 | 1.24 | 23.4% | 1 | 12 | 7 |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,800 | $4,900 | $10,300 | 24.7 | 1.5 | 23.7 | 0.9 | 1.04 | 22.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $4,200 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 18.5 | -6.2 | 22.2 | 1.6 | 0.83 | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (tournaments)
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have been banged up most the year and come into this game only 3.5 back of a playoff spot in the West. They are in a pace up spot and against Cleveland who are ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. Despite the great matchup, I don’t see myself jamming Jazz into my lineups but there are some plays that we should consider.
Ricky Rubio has been frustrating all year, but the price is only $4800 and it’s the Cavs! Cleveland has been horrible all year long at defending the point guard and Rubio gets to go up against his former international teammate Jose Calderon. Rubio is not always a fun roster but at his price on both sites and in this matchup, he is someone we need to consider in cash and tournament formats. Donovan Mitchell has been the bright spot on Utah this year averaging around 30 fantasy points per game. JR Smith defense is a great matchup for him and I think if this game stays close he should be a big part of it.
Like Mitchell, Rodney Hood has upside and someone that if you are playing tournaments you should probably get exposure to. I don’t think you should play him with Mitchell, but if Mitchell is struggling you could see Hood taking a ton of shots with the second unit and he has 40-point upside. I really think Thabo Sefolosha is a great cheap value on this slate. With the Cavs likely going with a small lineup, I expect the Jazz to matchup with that and put Sefolosha on LBJ a ton for defensive purposes. Thabo will likely see 25 minutes or more here and I think he is an elite value play. Derrick Favors is the last guy I want to discuss mainly because his price is still too cheap. He is only $5600 on DK and at $6200 on FD is also in play. His usage in the current lineup is just too high with the price that he is at. I think Favors is safe for 25-35 points in this matchup and I think he is a great cash game and should also be considered in tournaments.
To summarize the Jazz, I think it is best I go over them quick one more time. Rubio is underpriced but comes with some risk. Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors are safe because of the usage they are seeing in this current offense. Thabo Sefolosha is one of my favorite values because I expect him to play a lot against LBJ and needed for small ball lineups. Rodney Hood is a good low owned tournament option with upside but understand he comes with risk. Also don’t hate Joe Johnson – I could see mixing him in your tournament lineups if this game goes small he could get some run.
Notable Injuries Rudy Gobert (out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 101.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $4,800 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 25.2 | -1.9 | 29.0 | 0.5 | 0.87 | 20.5% | 18 | 20 | 14 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,500 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 30.0 | 3.9 | 30.5 | 4.4 | 0.98 | 24.9% | 20 | 24 | 25 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,300 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 22.8 | -3.3 | 30.3 | 0.6 | 0.75 | 14.9% | 26 | 26 | 18 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 18.3 | -0.5 | 21.2 | 2.2 | 0.86 | 14.8% | 27 | 23 | 28 |
| Derrick Favors | $6,200 | $5,600 | $11,400 | 25.8 | 2.6 | 27.5 | 2.6 | 0.94 | 17.0% | 8 | 8 | 25 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $3,900 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 14.0 | -0.7 | 17.8 | 2.8 | 0.79 | 13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rodney Hood | $5,500 | $5,700 | $12,300 | 25.1 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 2.2 | 0.87 | 24.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |