NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-08 17:52:54

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

San Antonio at Charlotte

Vegas Line – San Antonio -3.5, 191 Over/Under
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Mills-Green-Belinelli-Diaw-Duncan
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

San Antonio

On Thursday, the Spurs were without Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw, Kawhi Leonard, and Manu Ginobili. They will be without Manu and Kawhi again tonight but the other three are all expected to be back in the lineup tonight. Marco Belinelli is a game-time decision though so make sure to check his status closer to tip-off.

Tim Duncan – Duncan will likely start off against McRoberts, but will surely spend some time against Jefferson as well. The matchup against Jefferson is much more favorable for Duncan on the offensive end. After getting the night off on Thursday to rest, he should be ready to go for tonight’s game. Considering the fact that Parker may sit, the Spurs may rely on him more offensively.

Danny Green – Green is finally starting to play like the guy that we saw last year. He has scored over 35 FP’s in back to back games and is guaranteed to play big minutes with the injuries to Manu and Kawhi. Green is still cheap on most sites across the industry. He makes a great play against the Bobcats, especially if Belinelli sits out.

Charlotte

The Bobcats are 3.5 point underdogs tonight in a game that is expected to be played at a slow pace. Both of these teams play at a pace that is just under the league average. If you look at the DvP rankings of the Spurs over the last 15 days, they are ranked between 11th and 15th against all five positions so all of the matchups are pretty average.

Kemba Walker made his way back into the lineup in the Bobcats last game. With Walker back, the Bobcats have a different offense. When he was out, they would lean heavily on Al Jefferson and just throw it to him in the post. When Kemba is in the lineup, they are sharing the ball more and running more pick and rolls. This should hurt Al Jefferson fantasy value going forward. While he is still going to be a great fantasy player, I think it’s best to wait for his salary to come down a bit.

Memphis at Atlanta

Vegas Line – Atlanta -1.5, 188.5 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Calathes-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon

Memphis

The Grizzlies will be without Mike Conley once again tonight as they take on the Hawks. This game has a low total, but it is expected to be a close game which is always good for fantasy production. With Conley out, Nick Calathes and Courtney Lee have really played well in the back-court. They are averaging over 50 FP’s combined in their three starts together. They are still cheap across the industry and I like using the back-court combo in cash games. You may want to avoid Marc Gasol tonight, the Hawks are ranked 1st against Centers since Gustavo Ayon was inserted into the starting lineup.

Zach Randolph – It seems like once Marc Gasol returned to the lineup, everyone gave up on Z-Bo. However, his production hasn’t taken a dip at all. He’s averaged over 35 FP’s per game over his last 7 games and draws a solid matchup against the under-sized Millsap. This should be a classic 20 and 10 performance from Z-Bo.

Atlanta

The Hawks take on the fantasy production crushers who are also known as the Grizzlies. If you throw out their last game against the Mavs, the Grizzlies hadn’t allowed more than 95 points in each of his last 11 games. The Grizzlies have recently struggled against opposing PF’s, but are ranked 7th or better at defending the other four positions on the floor. I recommend taking a pass on the Hawks tonight, but Paul Millsap has a decent matchup if you want to take that route.

Denver at Detroit

Vegas Line – Detroit -1.5, 216 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Denver

This should be the fantasy game of the night. If you are going to target one game heavily tonight, make it this one. It has the highest total of the night (216), the Pistons are only favored by 1.5 points, and both of these teams are playing in a back to back which can lead to a lot of bad defensive play.

If you look at the Pistons DvP rankings, you will see a lot of rankings that are either blue or green. Both of which means they are favorable matchups for the Nuggets. The Pistons haven’t defended any position particularly well this season. J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried make interesting plays down low, but I think I’m going to target the two more consistent Nuggets:

Ty Lawson – Lawson played 39 minutes last night which is a little concerning considering this is the second half of a back to back, but he should see a full complement of minutes again tonight. Jennings has never been a great defender and Lawson should be able to push the pace and create some easy opportunities in transition. I don’t think a projection of 20 points and 10 assists is unreasonable for tonight.

Wilson Chandler – I often related Chandler to Jeff Green. They are both in the same price range and have both let me down more than a few times this season. Chandler has a great matchup tonight though. Not only is Josh Smith turnover prone, but he is the main reason why the Pistons have given up the 2nd most FP’s to opposing SF’s this season.

Detroit

The Pistons also have a great matchup. The Nuggets and Pistons both average at least 97 possessions per game and there should be plenty of fantasy points scored in this game. The Nuggets have defended PG’s well this season, but I certainly wouldn’t rule out Brandon Jennings in what should be the highest scoring game of the night.

The Nuggets are ranked 21st or worse against the other four positions on the floor. Josh Smith continues to make a terrific GPP play and is in play for cash games if his price is attractive on the site that you are playing on. Kyle Singler makes an interesting play as well, it’s not official that he will get the start tonight though. Greg Monroe is also in play, he will have a nice height advantage down low over the much smaller Faried.

Andre Drummond – Drummond really played well last night against the Nets and actually topped my prediction of 18 points and 18 rebounds. I love him again tonight against the Nuggets who are below average at defensive rebounding. Look for Drummond to dominate both ends of the floor once again. His biggest downfall is getting into foul trouble, but I’m not too worried about that tonight against Hickson.

Portland at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Portland -1, 211 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Turiaf

Portland

This game should also be a great one to target in terms of fantasy potential. Both of these teams average at least 97 possessions per game and the total is set at 211 points which is the 2nd highest total of the night. The Wolves have defended Centers well all season long. Even with Turiaf in the lineup, they have not dropped in the defensive rankings. They do, however, struggle to defend the other positions. Over the last 15 days, they are ranked 17th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s.

Damian Lillard – Lillard is officially out of his slump. He has topped 40 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games and has a terrific matchup tonight against Rubio. He should have no problem creating his own shot and if he is knocking down his 3-pointer, he could easily top 30 actual points tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge has cooled off lately, he has shot less than 50% in 6 of his last 7 games. I think he gets it going again tonight against the Wolves though. Love is a great rebounder, but he’s not a great defender. I think another monster double-double is in store for Aldridge.

Minnesota

The T-Wolves are playing in a back to back situation after losing to the Pelicans last night in New Orleans. They have a very favorable matchup against the Blazers tonight who like to push the pace as much as the Wolves do. Nikola Pekovic will likely miss another game tonight so expect Ronny Turiaf and Dante Cunningham to pick up most of those minutes.

Kevin Love – I like both of the Kevin’s tonight for the T-Wolves. Love is dealing with an injury, but he has not let it hold him back. He’s topped 50 FP’s in each of his last 5 starts. In his last matchup against the Blazers, Love was held to 15 points and 13 rebounds. Something tells me that he improves on both of those numbers tonight.

Kevin Martin – Martin has not been the consistent scorer that we saw earlier in the season. He has turned into a boom or bust player, especially on efficiency sites. He has a nice matchup though and went for 40 FP’s in his last meeting against the Blazers.

Houston at Milwaukee

Vegas Line – Houston -10.5, 205.5 Over/Under
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Sanders

Houston

The Rockets are 10.5 point favorites tonight against the struggling Bucks who have lost 7 of their last 8 games. While everything about this game screams a blowout, the Rockets have a tendency to let teams hang around a bit. I’m treating this game just like any other game because I think this one stays within striking distance and the starters all see their typical amount of minutes. The Bucks are ranked 20th or worse in terms of FP’s allowed against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. Terrence Jones and Chandler Parsons are both in play here.

Dwight Howard – There is a lot of talk about Dwight having a down year, but he is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, and almost 2 blocks per game. Those are numbers that any team would take for their starting Center. Dwight has a terrific matchup against the Bucks who are ranked 2nd last in the league in rebounding rate.

James Harden – Over his last 3 games, Harden has failed to top 4 rebounds or 4 assists in any game. That’s very rare for Harden, he typically fills up all areas of the stat sheet. I love the matchup for him tonight and think he has a nice bounce back game after a few sub-par games in a row.

Milwaukee

The Bucks have a very favorable matchup against the Rockets, but we have the same problem that we always have when it comes to the Bucks. Inconsistent rotations and inconsistent play. Can anyone explain to me why John Henson hasn’t topped 30 minutes in over a month? I wish we could have a Q&A with Larry Drew. Brandon Knight and Larry Sanders make good GPP plays, but both have tough matchups against Beverley and Dwight.

Khris Middleton – Middleton has 27 and 36 FP’s in his last two games and should see big minutes again tonight. With Ridnour, Mayo, and Butler all questionable or doubtful to play tonight, I think Middleton makes a nice punt option at the SF position.