NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
New Orleans at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Indiana -11, 193.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Aminu-Anderson-Davis
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
New Orleans
The Pelicans are playing in a back to back situation against one of the best defenses in the league. That’s not exactly a recipe for great fantasy value. The Pacers rank in the top 10 against every single position on the floor. The Pacers bread and butter is to play tough defense and slow the pace of the game down. Both of which are bad for the Pelicans’ fantasy value. With a bad matchup and a potential blowout, you should fade the Pelicans tonight.
Indiana
The Pacers on the other hand are actually in a favorable spot because they are facing a much more uptempo team that themselves. The issue here is that this game could turn into a blowout. I do like the matchup though as the Pelicans rank in the bottom 12 against every position except for Paul George. He will be locked up in a tough matchup against Aminu. The other 4 starters are in play though and they are all very affordable across the board.
- David West – West makes a great cash game play today. He has limited upside, but he is averaging close to 25 fantasy points at home this season. He has a nice matchup against the Pelicans who are currently ranked 25th at defending the PF position.
Miami at Orlando
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Davis
Miami
This game is teetering on the edge of a blowout. The Heat are favored by 9 against the Magic which is right around the range that I typically like to factor in a blowout. The fact that the Magic are at home helps though and they should be able to keep this game competitive.
In this matchup, the availability of Dwyane Wade is going to determine the fantasy value of the Heat players. Wade is currently listed as a game-time decision and if he can’t suit up tonight, give a boost to Mario Chalmers, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh. The positions that the Magic struggle to defend the most are PG’s and SG’s so both Wade and Chalmers are in a favorable spot. Neither of which are close to being my top plays of the day though and I would only target the Heat if Wade ends up sitting out.
Orlando
The Magic are in a similar position to the Heat in that their fantasy value hinges on the health of Nikola Vucevic. Vucey has a great history against the Heat so if he suits up, he could make a nice play at the Center position. However, if he doesn’t end up playing tonight, give a nice boost to Glen Davis and Tobias Harris.
I don’t think Jason Maxiell has any fantasy value even if Vucevic is out. The matchup doesn’t line up for him and he wouldn’t play all that much as the Heat usually play small ball and I could see the Magic sliding Davis over to the Center position. My suggestion here is to check the injuries closer to tipoff and adjust one way or the other based on the status of Vucevic.
Cleveland at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Clark-Thompson-Varejao
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Pierce-Teletovic-Garnett
Cleveland
The Cavs will be without Kyrie Irving for tonight’s game which gives a couple of Cavs a nice fantasy boost and it gives the Nets a much better chance of walking away with a win. Vegas currently has the Nets favored by 6 points and the total set at 194 points. It will be interesting to see if the Cavs offense can get it going here as they only managed to muster 84 points in an overtime game against the Magic.
- Jarrett Jack – Jack is one of my favorite plays of the night. He didn’t have a huge game in his start the other night, but he is one of the best backup PG’s in the league and he should easily be able to top 25 FP’s here. Plug him in your lineups tonight.
- Dion Waiters – Waiters gets a nice boost with Kyrie out because he has to shoulder the load a bit more offensively. He had a decent game the other night, but he did not shoot the ball well. I expect him to get it going tonight.
- Anderson Varejao – The Nets are really hurting down low and Andy should be in for another big night tonight. He is coming off of a monster game against the Magic in which they couldn’t keep him off the glass. I expect much of the same tonight. Expect him to reach a double-double early in the second half.
Brooklyn
The Nets are in a favorable spot tonight. They are playing at home, they are decent sized favorites, and they have a few favorable matchups that we can exploit. The Cavs are ranked 29th at defending the PG position and are ranked 30th against the SF position. I think Joe Johnson carries some value as a sleeper pick, but Pierce and Williams are my top plays here.
- Paul Pierce – Pierce is back in the starting lineup and has scored over 24 fantasy points in each of his last 4 games. He has a great matchup against the Cavs who are ranked dead last against SF’s this season. I think he will be under-owned and makes a great play.
- Deron Williams – Williams has a nice matchup, but it’s not quite as good without Kyrie in the lineup. Jack is a better defender than Kyrie. That said, I still think Williams makes a nice play. He is cheap across the industry and has good upside.
Atlanta at Chicago
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Brand
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Deng-Boozer-Noah
Atlanta
The Hawks have a tough matchup tonight. Whenever a team faces the Bulls, it’s really hard to like fantasy options from that team unless there is an injury. The Bulls have a solid defense and are one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Bulls are ranked in the top 11 against every position on the floor except for SF’s and DeMarre Carroll is not a great fantasy option at this point. You could argue that Paul Millsap is in play, but he’s overpriced for a bad matchup.
Chicago
The Bulls are 5 point favorites tonight against the Hawks and the total for this game is set at 190 points. The Hawks have been very average defensively this season and have struggled to defend SG’s (ranked 22nd), SF’s (19th), and Centers (24th). Luol Deng is still on a minutes limit which hurts his value a bit, but I do like both Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah.
- Jimmy Butler – As long as Butler is getting major minutes, he makes a great value play. He has played at least 33 minutes in each of his last 5 games and should top that mark again tonight. He’s close to a lock for 20+ FP’s tonight.
- Joakim Noah – Noah has a great matchup tonight against the Hawks who are without Al Horford. The Hawks started Antic last night and will likely give him another start tonight. Factoring in price, Noah is one of my favorite options at Center tonight.
Oklahoma City at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -2, 208 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Oklahoma City
The Thunder and Wolves game is a great game to target tonight. Vegas expects this game to be close and the total is set at 208 points so both teams should score in the hundreds here. Both of these teams like to push the pace and the Wolves have not been solid defensively this season. They rank 17th or worse against every position except for Center. While I do like Serge Ibaka here, I worry that Love could bait him into a couple of early fouls.
- Kevin Durant – Durant has a fantastic matchup tonight. Not only has he been dominant since Westbrook went down with his injury, but both of these teams are fast-paced and he should get plenty of opportunities. Durant is my top overall option tonight and it’s not even very close. If you are debating between Love, LeBron, and Durant, I think Durant is head and shoulders above the other two.
- Reggie Jackson – Jackson has really struggled with his shot since taking over the starting PG position. I chalk that up to it being a long season and the fact that he is now facing starters instead of second units. It’s only a matter of time before he makes the adjustment. I love his matchup against Rubio tonight.
Minnesota
The Wolves are in a favorable spot tonight. They are expected to score a lot of points and the game is expected to stay close. The Thunder have made it easy on me. If you look at their DvP rankings, the Thunder really struggle to defend PG’s and PF’s and those are the two positions that you should be targeting. I think both Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer make nice value plays, but I would stay away from Nikola Pekovic in this tough matchup.
- Kevin Love – Love is below Durant as the top play of the night. Love is matchup proof and should have no problem posting big numbers tonight against Ibaka and the Thunder. I could break down his numbers, but you know how good Love is.
- Ricky Rubio – Rubio should play well tonight. He is at his best in fast-paced games where he can make plays in the open floor. Rubio can fill up the stat sheet and post huge fantasy games even when he is not taking shots. You have to love that about him because when he does have those high scoring games, that’s just an added bonus.