NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-15 15:38:10

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Milwaukee at New York

Vegas Line – New York -9.5, 207 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Henson-Pachulia
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler

Milwaukee

We have a rare morning game on the schedule today. This game tips off at 12:00 ET so make sure to set your lineups if you are in morning leagues. This game should be a decent one to target in terms of fantasy potential. The Knicks have been pretty solid defensively this season, but have recently struggled to defend both of the guard positions. Ersan Ilyasova has really picked up his play recently and should be targeted on sites that he’s still affordable.

Brandon Knight – Knight has decent splits against the Knicks this season and the Knicks are ranked 22nd against opposing PG’s over the last 15 days. Knight can fill up the stat sheet and is the one Bucks player that you can count on to play 35+ minutes every game.

New York

The Knicks have a very favorable matchup today and will have both Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire back in the lineup. Even though the Bucks aren’t an extremely fast-paced team, they have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor. The Bucks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and are ranked 25th or worse against SF’s, PF’s, and Centers. J.R. Smith makes a decent play as well, Wolters is an average defender at best.

Carmelo Anthony – The Bucks have surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to opposing SF’s this season and Melo is playing at home where he is averaging around 45 FP’s per game. Melo could get your team off to a great start this morning.

Amar’e Stoudemire – Amar’e appears to be back. Even though he got the other night off, it was only for rest so that he could help the Knicks make a final playoff push. Amar’e has topped 30 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games and gets to face a Bucks team that really struggles to defend the paint.

Brooklyn at Washington

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -3, 197 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat

Brooklyn

The Nets travel to Washington to take on the Wizards in what should be a tough Eastern Conference battle. The Wizards have really picked up the play on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked 17th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. That means that all five starters on the Nets have average matchups at best. That said, I think there are some decent value plays. Kevin Garnett will sit out again tonight which gives Andray Blatche a nice boost off the bench.

Shaun Livinston – Livingston is a nice punt play tonight, he has topped 22 FP’s in 3 straight games and is still extremely cheap on both FD and DK. Livingston is a player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he should be able to hit value easily at his cheap price tag.

Washington

The Wizards face a Nets team that is holding their opponents to 98.8 points per game which is the 9th fewest in the NBA. The Nets play at a very slow pace and that has really had a negative impact on the fantasy production of their opponents. The Nets are ranked 11th or better against PG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers.

John Wall has great splits at home and could be a nice play today. The only problem is that he’s the most expensive PG on most sites and I think Ty Lawson is a better play. Trevor Ariza price is depressed on a couple of sites, he should have no problem filling up the stat sheet.

Marcin Gortat – With KG out of the lineup, the Nets are ranked 22nd against Centers over the last 15 days. Garnett is a much better defender than Plumlee and it has really shown in the rankings. Gortat has been excellent ever since Nene went down with his injury and should continue his 30+ FP production tonight.

Denver at Atlanta

Vegas Line – Atlanta -6, 217 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Antic

Denver

The Nuggets and Hawks game has the highest total of the night and it’s not even close. Both of these teams like to push the pace and both are giving up at least 102 points per game. The Hawks are now ranked 19th or worse against all five positions on the floor so there are quite a few fantasy options tonight on the Nuggets. Wilson Chandler has seen an uptick in shot attempts over the last two weeks and remains a nice mid-range option at SF.

Ty Lawson – Lawson is the top PG on the board tonight. He has scored 35+ FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games and has a great matchup against the Hawks who continue to fall in the defensive rankings. Targeting the PG’s in a fast-paced, high scoring game is never a bad strategy in DFS.

Kenneth Faried – Faried has been on fire since the All-Star break. During that stretch, he is averaging 32 minutes, 19 points, and 9 rebounds per game. Now that he is seeing starter’s minutes consistently, he has become a reliable fantasy option. I love his matchup against Millsap who is a very similar player.

Atlanta

If I had to rank the teams and their matchups tonight, the Hawks would be at the top of the list. The Nuggets are giving up 105.8 points per game this season and the Hawks are projected to score 111 points tonight which is easily the highest on the schedule. The Nuggets are ranked 17th against PG’s and are ranked 23rd or worse against the other 4 positions on the floor.

DeMarre Carroll and Kyle Korver both make solid plays tonight. They are typically in the same price range on most sites and I would give Carroll the slight edge over Korver tonight. While Korver is the better scorer, Carroll can fill up the stat sheet and has a nice offensive game as well.

Jeff Teague – Teague can be a very frustrating fantasy player. He can go 5 games in a row with 30+ FP’s and then score less than 20 FP’s in his next 5 games. He is very inconsistent. He’s coming off of a nice game against the Bucks though and is the starting PG on the team projected to score the most points tonight.

Paul Millsap – Millsap’s biggest weakness is his inability to stay out of foul trouble. While that’s a concern with him guarding the very energetic Faried, it’s hard to avoid a player with such a great matchup just because he could get in foul trouble. The Nuggets have surrendered the 3rd most FP’s to PF’s this season.

Indiana at Detroit

Vegas Line – Indiana -5, 197.5 Over/Under
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Indiana

The Pacers let the Sixers stick around a lot longer than most people expected last night, but they eventually picked up the win. Tonight they travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons. This is a terrific matchup for the Pacers and with the Pacers struggling to put teams away, that only helps their fantasy value. The Pistons are ranked 17th and 19th against SG’s and PF’s and are ranked 25th or worse against the other 3 positions.

All five starters are in play here. Lance Stephenson hasn’t had that same high ceiling that he had earlier in the season, but still provides a nice play at SG tonight. David West has a terrific matchup against the Pistons who have not defended the paint well. Roy Hibbert and George Hill are both decent punt plays.

Paul George – George has scored over 40 FP’s in 2 of his last 3 games and has a terrific matchup tonight against the Pistons who have given up the 4th most FP’s to SF’s this season. George’s price is depressed across the industry and he should be a solid play again tonight.

Detroit

The Pistons face a Pacers team that has really struggled to play up to the level that they did in the earlier part of the season. The Pacers just don’t seem to have that killer instinct anymore. That said, the Pistons are only projected to score 96 points which is well below their season average. The Pacers are still ranked in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to all five positions and there aren’t any matchups that really stand out here.

Memphis at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Memphis -13.5, 198.5 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims

Memphis

This is going to be a very rare night where it may make sense to take a few Grizzlies players. The total for this game is set at 198.5 points which may not seem high, but for a Grizzlies game, it’s extremely high. The Sixers are ranked 29th or 30th against all five positions on the floor and have been a fantasy gold mine for opponents all season long. Courtney Lee could be a solid play tonight as he will look to break out of his slump. The big 3 of the Grizzlies are my favorite plays though:

Marc Gasol – Marc Gasol scored under 30 FP’s for the first time in about a month last night, but he ended up with 28.25 FP’s so we can cut him a little bit of slack. Tonight he faces a Sixers defense that can’t defend and that struggles to rebound. He’s a great play at Center.

Mike Conley – Conley will likely be the most popular PG play tonight and for good reason. He is much cheaper than the top options, but could easily post similar stat lines against this Sixers’ defense.

Zach Randolph – Randolph doesn’t necessarily benefit from playing in a fast-paced game, but he does benefit from the fact that the Sixers struggle to defend the paint and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Don’t be afraid to take 2 of the big 3 from the Grizzlies tonight.

Philadelphia

The Sixers average 100 points per game, but are only projected to scored 92 tonight. The Grizzlies are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and are ranked 14th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. With the Sixers starters being very inconsistent since the big trade and the fact that this game has blowout potential, I recommend avoiding all Sixers tonight.