Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 28 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-28 19:18:54

grind%20down%20article%20faq

L.A. Lakers at Portland – 10:00 PM

L.A. Lakers Portland
lalakersnba Vegas Total 204 portlandnba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 99.44 Team Pace 98
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj Starter Damian Lillard C. J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Meyers Leonard Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 20 26 5 14 28 Opp. Season 29 12 24 25 24
Opp. Last 7 1 30 22 21 20 Opp. Season 29 26 26 5 3

L.A. Lakers (2-12, 1-7 road)

The Lakers should be fully healthy heading into this one, which isn’t saying much as they are the worst team in the NBA other than the 76ers.

The Lakers are a mess. Kobe Bryant is still dominating the ball and heaving up shots, despite the fact that he’s playing terrible and looks over-the-hill. Byron Scott has said he’s not going to bench him, and Kobe’s usage really hurts the youngsters like Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell. However, Kobe is cheap on DK and does provide a lot of shot security, as he threw up 22 FGA against Portland a few games ago en route to 33 DK points.

While Byron Scott won’t bench Kobe, he has at least seemed to take the shackles off of Russell. His minutes have been on the rise, and this is a quality matchup as Damian Lillard plays no defense. Russell took advantage in their earlier meeting as he produced 32.75 DK points, and is still sub-$5,000. Portland’s interior defense isn’t very good and Julius Randle has flashed solid upside this season for a player under $6,000 on both sites. He’s not going to play 35 minutes but he should continue to get 28 to 30, and he ate up this Portland interior for 13 points and 13 rebounds just two games ago.

Elite Plays

Julius Randle (FD:PF, DK:PF)
FD — $5,700
DK — $5,900
Min/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.3

Secondary Plays

Kobe Bryant (FD-SG, DK-SG)
FD — $6,900
DK — $6,100
Min/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 25.7

D’Angelo Russell (FD-PG, DK-PG)
FD — $5,100
DK — $4,800
Min/Game — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 28.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.8

Portland (6-10, 3-4 home)

The big news here is that Meyers Leonard is expected to return to the lineup today. I haven’t seen any word on a minutes restriction, but he should send Noah Vonleh to the bench and end the days of Ed Davis seeing 30 minutes.

The Lakers are one of the league’s worst defenses, and basically every Portland starter across the board draws an elite matchup. The Trailblazers check in with one of the higher team totals on the night, so I don’t mind loading up on them here as their usage is fairly predictable. Both C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard are going to get a ton of shots and minutes, and are elite options. Damian Lillard is one of the premier plays on the day, regardless of position, as he’s getting tons of minutes and usage, and torched this defense for 60 FD points a week ago. The Lakers are 29th in DVP against PG and have shown no signs of being able to slow a PG like Lillard down.

The return of Meyers Leonard does throw some question marks into the Portland frontcourt, and we’ll have to monitor the news for any minute restriction. Mason Plumlee was starting to play very well in his absence as his minutes became very secure. He’s produced three straight double-doubles, including a 17-point, 11-rebound game against this Lakers’ defense. He’s a little riskier for cash games as the extra body of Meyers Leonard does pose some minutes risk, as Portland’s big man rotation can be frustrating. However, Leonard and Plumlee will start together in the frontcourt, so Leonard’s return isn’t a full-blown killer, and I still really love Plumlee’s upside for tournaments. I’ll take a wait and see approach on Leonard in his first game back from injury. Al-Farouq Aminu’s price is elevated on DK and he’s struggled in his past two games, but he’s been solid for most of the year and is a fine secondary SF option on FD.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
FD — $9,400
DK — $9,100
Min/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 39.6
FP/Game — Season: 40.8

Mason Plumlee
FD — $6,200
DK — $6,000
Min/Game — Season: 28.6 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 27.3

C. J. McCollum
FD — $6,600
DK — $6,500
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 29.4

Secondary Plays

Al-Farouq Aminu
FD — $5.800
DK — $6,400
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.1

Sacramento at Golden State – 10:30 PM

Sacramento Golden State
sacramentonba Vegas Total 220 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 220
Vegas Sprd 14.5 Vegas Sprd -14.5
Team Proj. 102.8 Team Proj. 117.3
Team Pace 102.81 Team Pace 101.84
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Kosta Koufos Willie Cauley-Stein Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 25 8 4 11 9 Opp. Season 16 28 19 26 26
Opp. Last 7 27 28 11 14 1 Opp. Season 13 29 10 30 22

Sacramento (6-11, 2-5)

The Kings are 15-point underdogs as they head to slaughter in Oracle Arena. The big question here is the status of DeMarcus Cousins, and it’s a big injury to monitor as it not only affects the Kings, but also the Warriors, as this one could get nasty if Boogie sits. Kosta Koufos has slid into the starting lineup for Boogie, while Omri Casspi has also seen increased time off the bench.

This is a very tough matchup for the Kings, especially if they are without their go-to scorer in Cousins, as the Warriors are a very good defensive team. These two teams met earlier this year with Boogie out of the lineup, and the Kings were held to 94 points on their home court. Rondo did put up his typical triple-double with 14 points, 15 assists, and 12 rebounds, while Koufos registered a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds. The weakness of this Golden State defense has been PG, so Rondo is in play, more so on FD where his price is still affordable. If Cousins sits then Rudy Gay should get a usage boost, but he draws a tough matchup as he’ll see a lot of Andre Iguodala, so I’d look to Koufos and Omri Casspi as the better values. If Boogie does suit up, he should be low owned and is always a GPP target at low ownership.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo
FD — $8,500
DK — $9,300
Min/Game — Season: 36.8 | Last Five Games: 40.6
FP/Game — Season: 38.8

Omri Casspi
FD — $4,400
DK — $4,700
Min/Game — Season: 26.0 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 20.8

Kosta Koufos
FD — $4,200
DK — $4,800
Min/Game — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 27
FP/Game — Season: 20.6

Golden State (17-0, 9-0)

The injury situation to monitor here for the Warriors is the status of Harrison Barnes, who left yesterday’s with a sprained ankle. It’s unclear if they would insert Andre Iguodala into the starting lineup or keep in his reserve role if Barnes is out, but Iggy stands to be the biggest beneficiary.

The Warriors draw an elite matchup as the Kings are near the bottom of the NBA in almost every category. The question is whether the Kings can hang around if DeMarcus Cousins sits, so that the starters see the 4th quarter. The Warriors beat the Kings by nine in Sacramento when Boogie was out of the lineup, but shot very poorly (8-39 from three), so if they shoot like they normally do, a blowout is looming.

The Warriors have hammered plenty of teams this season and Stephen Curry has proven to be blowout-proof as he just piles up production in three-quarters. Despite not playing the 4th quarter, he put up 41 points last night and is the one player on GS that has been blowout-proof. He’s on another level right now and is matchup-proof.

I’ll reserve the rest of the Golden State starters to GPP use as they can be more affected by blowouts. Andre Iguodala gets a small boost if Barnes sits, but he was already seeing solid time off the bench and isn’t particularly cheap. The Kings’ defense against SG is terrible, so while Klay Thompson has struggled this year, he does have big upside at his reduced price point. He poured in a record 37 points in a quarter against the Kings last year and can get hot very quickly.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
FD — $10,900
DK — $10,900
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 49.1

Secondary Plays

Klay Thompson
FD — $6,300
DK — $6,300
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.4

Draymond Green
FD — $7,700
DK — $7,400
Min/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 34.4

Andre Iguodala
FD — $5,000
DK — $5,200
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 26.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.1

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)