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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 28th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-30 13:59:14

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto at Washington – 07:00 PM

Toronto Washington
torontonba Vegas Total 205 washingtonnba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 96.94 Team Pace 101.83
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo Proj Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 10 25 29 18 7 Opp. Season 5 19 9 10 19
Opp. Last 7 9 2 7 6 2 Opp. Season 18 19 3 22 9

Toronto (10-6, 6-5 away)

Toronto is coming off of a big home win over the Cavaliers and will head on the road to face an uptempo Wizards team. The primary injury news for the Raptors is the injury to Jonas Valanciunas. With Valanciunas out, Bismack Biyombo and Luis Scola have seen a minutes boost, while DeMarre Carroll has continued to play a ton of minutes as the Raptors occasionally go small.

The Raptors draw one of the better matchups on the day as they get a nice tempo boost facing the Wizards. Both DeMar DeRozan and DeMarre Carroll draw elite matchups here as the Wizards’s wing defense has really struggled this season. Carroll has averaged 40 minutes in the two games since the injury to Valanciunas, while DeRozan has played 40 minutes in each, so both provide great minute volume. The Wizards will play small at times, and actually started Jared Dudley over Kris Humphries to start the 2nd half last night, so I’d expect the Raptors wings to continue to play a ton.

Kyle Lowry has been terrific this season and this game should be played at a very nice pace. However, the Wizards have been solid against PGs, and given the depth of the PG position, he’s a secondary GPP target tonight. If you’re looking for some value at PF and C then both Bismack Biyombo and Luis Scola have been productive since Valanciunas’ injury. Both have topped 30 minutes in each of the past two games and their price hasn’t fully adjusted to their new role. Of the two, Biymombo draws the tougher matchup as Marcin Gortat is a very good defender.

Elite Plays

Demar DeRozan (FD-SG, DK-SG)
FD — $7,500
DK — $7,000
Min/Game — Season: 36 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.7

DeMarre Carroll (FD-SF, DK-SF)
FD — $6,000
DK — $5,700
Min/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.8

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry (FD-PG, DK-PG)
FD — $8,800
DK — $8,500
Min/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 39.2

Luis Scola (FD-PF, DK-PF)
FD — $4,700
DK — $5,100
Min/Game — Season: 23.5 | Last Five Games: 28.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.3

Bismack Biyombo (FD-C, DK-C)
FD — $3,800
DK — $4,300
Min/Game — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 20.4
FP/Game — Season: 14.3

Washington (6-6, 3-3 home)

The Wizards are limping into this one as they’ve been blown out in three straight games and find themselves as home underdogs. With their struggles, Jared Dudley drew the start at PF to start the 2nd half last night, so there could be a potential lineup change tonight. Nene Hilario also left last night’s game with an injury, and given his injury history, he’s likely to be out tonight

Toronto is one of the tougher defensive teams in the NBA and rank in the top 10 in every category outlined above. John Wall is really struggling right now and hasn’t topped 40 FD points in nine games. A tough matchup with Kyle Lowry and the Raptors, who have defended PG very well this season, is unlikely to get him going. Brad Beal draws the better matchup of the Wizards’ guards and fills the weak SG position, so he’d be my preferred target over Wall.

In terms of matchups, Marcin Gortat draws the best matchup for the Wizards, as the Raptors are also very thin on the interior with Jonas Valanciunas out. The primary downside to Gortat is his upside is very limited as his minutes are unlikely to top 30. As mentioned, Jared Dudley did draw the start at PF in the 2nd half last night. He’s minimum price on both sites, so he becomes a viable punt option, especially on DK. His upside is very limited as he’s basically a spot-up shooter, but at minimum price all you’re looking for is 17 to 20 fantasy points, which is not out of the question.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat
FD — $6,800
DK — $6,600
Min/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 27.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.2

Brad Beal
FD — $6,100
DK — $5,600
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 28.6

Jared Dudley (if he starts)
FD — $3,500
DK — $3,000
Min/Game — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 26.2
FP/Game — Season: 12.8

Brooklyn at Cleveland – 07:30 PM

Brooklyn Cleveland
brooklynnba Vegas Total 201 clevelandnba Vegas Total 201
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 95.25
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jarrett Jack Joe Johnson Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj Starter Mo Williams J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 4 13 17 5 3 Opp. Season 22 27 23 8 25
Opp. Last 7 7 9 13 16 18 Opp. Season 25 15 28 12 25

Brooklyn (3-12, 1-9 away)

The Nets look to be entering this game healthy, but could struggle to keep this competitive as the Cavs are 10-point favorites and have been lights out at home.

Cleveland has been a very tough team to target so far this season as they’ve played quality defense and have been particularly stingy against PG, PF and C, which happens to be the positions of the Nets’ top scorers: Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young and Jarrett Jack. In particular, Lopez and Young have played well of late, but given the tough Cavs defense as well as the blowout factor, they are secondary options. Between the two, I prefer Young as Kevin Love is not historically a quality one-on-one defender. His prices is on the rise on DK, but he’s still affordable on FD.

The Cavaliers’ wing defense has been more exploitable, but Joe Johnson’s play has been all over the map this season. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has moved into the starting lineup and has played well over his last three games. He’s a not a great scorer, but he’s a plus defender and can fill up a stat sheet. He should see plenty of minutes as he’ll be tasked with trying to slow LeBron down, so foul trouble could be a concern – but he was able to avoid foul trouble against Kevin Durant in his last game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (FD:SF, DK:SG)
FD — $4,200
DK — $4,400
Min/Game — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 27.6
FP/Game — Season: 17.5

Brook Lopez (FD:C, DK:C)
FD — $8,200
DK — $7,300
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 35.2

Thad Young (FD:PF, DK:C)
FD — $6,500
DK — $6,900
Min/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 30.3

Cleveland (12-4, 8-0 home)

Cleveland is undefeated at home and is expected to roll over a bad Brooklyn team. Timofey Mozgov returned from injury last night earlier than expected, so Tristan Thompson returned to the bench, and both of their banged up PGs, Mo Williams and Matthew Dellavedova, suited up as well. This is the 2nd night of a back-to-back, so I would monitor the status of Mozgov and Mo in particular.

The Nets have been weak defensively this season, and in terms of fantasy points, have been one of the better teams to target. The only concern here is whether the Nets can keep it competitive enough for the Cleveland starters to get their fourth-quarter minutes. Kevin Love is playing much better of late and has recorded double-doubles in four of his last five games. The Nets have defended PF well this season, but their team defense overall stinks, and I like the way Love is playing right now. Anthony Davis is a GTD and Paul Millsap draws a tough matchup with San Antonio, so he looks like one of the elite options at PF today.

LeBron James doesn’t really bring that 55 to 60 fantasy point upside that we’ve seen in the past, but he produces 40 to 45 fantasy points on a nightly basis, so his floor is very high for cash games. I’m leaning elsewhere for cash games, so I prefer him as a secondary option, but it’s hard to go wrong with LeBron. If both Mo Williams and Matthew Dellavedova suit up at PG, then there’s not a lot to like at PG, and the return of Mozgov puts an end to Tristan Thompson’s run. J.R. Smith does play a weak SG position, so he could be worth a peek, but this one really boils down to their two starters in Love and James.

Elite Plays

Kevin Love
FD — $8,300
DK — $8,300
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 37.4

LeBron James
FD — $10,100
DK — $9,600
Min/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 45.1

Secondary Plays

NONE

Denver at Dallas – 08:30 PM

Denver Dallas
denvernba Vegas Total 209 dallasnba Vegas Total 209
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 109.3
Team Pace 99.48 Team Pace 99.72
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Joffrey Lauvergne Proj Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 11 7 3 27 10 Opp. Season 27 30 7 16 20
Opp. Last 7 3 13 16 13 8 Opp. Season 26 16 15 19 29

Denver (6-9, 3-4 away)

The primary injury news to watch with the Nuggets is the status of Kenneth Faried, who has missed the last few games with an injury, as well as the status of Joffrey Lauvergne, who was expected to return from injury last night but received a DNP.

UPDATE – Gary Harris is questionable with concussion like symptoms. It’s unclear as to who would draw the start between Randy Foye and Will Barton, but Baron is the much preferred fantasy options and carries plenty of upside if he draws the start.

The Mavericks are playing at a slower pace than last season and have been improved defensively, so they’re not the elite matchup they were last season. They’re still not a great defensive unit, but this is a bad Denver team, and last night only one player, (Danilo Gallinari,) topped 30 minutes, which is concerning. Dirk Nowitzki is still humming along offensively, but he’s never been great defensively and that’s especially been true this season. If Kenneth Faried returns from injury, he could be worth a look in GPPs, but he’s not a guy who is trustworthy for cash games, especially in his first game back from injury. If Faried sits, then Darrell Arthur should continue to draw the start at PF as he returns to his hometown of Dallas. The potential return of Lauvergne is concerning, and his upside is very limited, so he’s not an overly appealing option unless Denver is very short-handed in the frountcourt.

Like Arthur, Emmanuel Mudiay is also from Dallas so he should be a little extra amped up for this one. However, like most rookies, he’s proven to be very volatile, so he’s best deployed in GPP. Deron Williams isn’t a great defender and the Mavs are 19th in DVP against PG, so the matchup is solid. Danilo Gallinari is the Nugget’s most consistent option but his price is the rise and this is an average matchup for him.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Danilo Gallinari
FD — $7,200
DK — $6,800
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.5

Emmanuel Mudiay
FD — $6,000
DK — $5,900
Min/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.1

Dallas (9-7, 4-2 home)

Guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons should be monitored as to their availability, but the Mavs are well rested so all should be good to go tonight.

Outside of the Warriors, the Mavericks check in with the highest team total of the night at 109 points. Dallas has been a frustrating team to attack in DFS for most of this season, as they have monitored the minutes of their veterans as well as the guys returning from injury like Chandler Parsons and Wesley Matthews. However, the matchup is prime here and they are not in a back-to-back situation, so they are safer than normal. The Nuggets have struggled across the board defensively with the exception of SF, so there are several attractive targets here.

My favorite options from this game are Deron Williams and Zaza Pachulia. Williams has been playing very well of late and backup guard JJ Barea will be out. He’s played at least 33 minutes in eight straight games and should be able to take advantage of a turnover-prone rookie in Mudiay. Denver has been a team to attack on the interior for several years, and this year is no different as they are 27th in DVP against Centers. Pachulia was terrible against an elite Spurs interior, but otherwise has performed very well in Dallas. Prior to the Spurs’ debacle, he had four straight double-doubles and this looks like a great bounce back spot for him at a very affordable price.

As long as he’s not in a back-to-back situation, Dirk can still see 30+ minutes a night. This could be one of those nights, and he’s actually produced at least 30 FD points in five of his last six games. He still lacks upside, but if you’re in need of a mid-range PF, he’s a solid option tonight. The Nuggets are dead last in DVP against SGs and Wesley Matthews minutes are now above 30. He still doesn’t like quite like his old self, but his price is very cheap on DK so he’s a viable punt option on DK.

Elite Plays

Zaza Pachulia
FD — $5,800
DK — $5,600
Min/Game —Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 25.

Deron Williams
FD — $6,500
DK — $5,800
Min/Game —Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 27.1

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki
FD — $6,600
DK — $6,200
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 29.5

Wesley Matthews
FD — $4,800
DK — $4,200
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 17.4

Atlanta at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

Atlanta San Antonio
atlantanba Vegas Total 192 sanantonionba Vegas Total 192
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 92.5 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 98.89 Team Pace 96.46
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 26 1 2 3 2 Opp. Season 15 21 11 19 30
Opp. Last 7 19 5 5 17 11 Opp. Season 20 10 20 24 24

Atlanta (10-7, 4-4 away)

Kent Bazemore returned for the Hawks last night, so they are getting healthier. This is the 2nd night of a back-to-back, so a guy like Kyle Korver should be monitored.

The Hawks play great team basketball, so they aren’t a great fantasy target to begin with. Add in a matchup with an elite Spurs’ defense that is allowing the least amount of real points, as well as fantasy points per game, and this is a spot to tread lightly.

Paul Millsap has been terrific all season long, so he’s not completely off the board as an option, but his ceiling is certainly limited in this matchup, especially at his elevated price point. The weakness of this Spurs’ defense has been against PGs, so Jeff Teague is the one Hawk with a plus matchup. He’s notoriously volatile, but he’s starting to pick up his production over his past two games and does have the ability put up a big game, so he’s in play in large field GPPs. His minutes have been down as he’s returning from injury, but he looks to be returning to his normal workload of 30-32 MPG.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap
FD — $8,800
DK — $7,800
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 38.9

Jeff Teague
FD — $7,200
DK — $6,700
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 23
FP/Game — Season: 31.0

San Antonio (12-3, 8-0 home)

Both Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan received DNP-Old last night, but with the Spurs returning home for this matchup, they should return to the lineup tonight.

The Spurs are a better version of the Hawks in that they play elite team basketball and don’t have very many appetizing fantasy players, with the exception being Kawhi Leonard. He’s been the one Spur that you can trust on a daily basis, and as evidenced by his game last night, he can stuff the stat sheet. The Hawks have shown some slippage defensively this year and Leonard is on his way to becoming matchup-proof. Given the way he is playing right now, I’ll take the savings on Leonard over LeBron tonight at the SF position.

The Hawks have really struggled to rebound the ball and it’s shown in their DVP against big men. LaMarcus Aldridge is still too expensive on a site like FD, as his production and usage are way down in San Antonio. On a site like FD, Tim Duncan makes for an interesting GPP play. He rested last night, so I’d expect him to return to 28 or so minutes against an Atlanta team that struggles against centers. Prior to last night, Tony Parker had been playing very good basketball, but he’s a secondary option at best as PG is a deep position tonight.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard
FD — $8,900
DK — $8,400
Min/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.3

Secondary Plays

Tim Duncan
FD — $6,600
DK — $6,100
Min/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 27.4

New Orleans at Utah – 09:00 PM

New Orleans Utah
neworleansnba Vegas Total 198 utahnba Vegas Total 198
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 95.0 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 100.76 Team Pace 94.72
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ish Smith Eric Gordon Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 6 2 10 4 4 Opp. Season 30 15 21 20 27
Opp. Last 7 17 1 2 25 7 Opp. Season 23 7 27 15 17

New Orleans (4-11, 1-7 road)

Unfortunately, Anthony Davis once again went down with an injury last night and his status for tonight’s game is in doubt. He hasn’t been ruled, but it would seem like he would be closer to doubtful, so Ryan Anderson could be primed to pick up a start. Jrue Holiday is also expected to sit, so Ish Smith should pick up all the minutes and usage he can handle, especially if Davis is out.

This is a tough matchup for the Pelicans against a very slow-paced and elite Utah defense. Even if Davis does suit up, he’s a secondary option due to the elite interior defense of the Jazz. Ryan Anderson’s price is not a bargain right now as he’s still priced up from when Davis was injured just a few games ago.

The “weakness” of this Utah defense is their PG defense, as you aren’t going to have much interior success against the Jazz. Ish Smith has been playing out of his mind lately and has topped 37 FD points in four straight games. It’s a tough decision on him today due to the tough matchup, but as long as Jrue sits and with Davis potentially out, his usage and minutes should carry him to another productive outing. Eric Gordon should also pick up some extra usage if Anthony Davis sits, but he’s no longer the value he was at the beginning of the year, and the Jazz have been very good against SGs.

Elite Plays

Ish Smith (FD-PG, DK-PG)
FD — $6,600
DK — $6,600
Min/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 29.6

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis (FD-PF, DK-PF)
FD — $11,100
DK — $10,600
Min/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 44.1

Utah (7-7, 2-2 home)

Both Trey Burke and Rodney Hood are listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If both sit, then Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks should pick up some extra wing minutes, as well as some extra ball handling duties, in a pace-up game.

The Jazz are getting a huge tempo boost here as the Pelicans love to run, and are allowing the most points per game in the NBA.The Jazz PGs don’t get heavy usage and split time, so they aren’t good fantasy options. Raul Neto could come into play as a punt option if Trey Burke sits, and the Pelicans are dead last in DVP against PGs. However, I’m actually giving a bigger bump to guys like Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks, especially if Rodney Hood is out as well. Both can handle the ball and should take on additional playmaking duties, and Hayward in particular has really started to play well. He started very slow, but his minutes and production are up and he’s coming off his best game of the season. He should thrive against a faster-paced Pelicans’ team, and is one of my favorite SF options on the day.

The Jazz should dominate the interior against a Pelicans’ team that has struggled to rebound, and could now be without Anthony Davis once again. Derrick Favors is the go-to option offensively in the post, and should be in line for a very productive outing in this one. Rudy Gobert has disappointed in his 2nd season as a starter as he doesn’t get much offensive usage, so he’s dependent on blocks and rebounds. His price has finally started to adjust around the industry and this is a quality matchup. I may drop down to Plumlee or Zaza on FD, but he’s particularly affordable on DK at just $6,100, and an elite option in this matchup.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors (FD-PF, DK-PF)
FD — $8,000
DK — $7,100
Min/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 33.8

Rudy Gobert (FD-C, DK-C)
FD — $7,000
DK — $6,100
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.6

Gordon Hayward (FD-SF, DK-SF)
FD — $6,900
DK — $6,500
Min/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 27.9

Secondary Plays

Alec Burks (FD-SG, DK-SG) – only if Rodney Hood out. If Hood plays then he’s the preferred option.
FD — $5,100
DK — $5,000
Min/Game — Season: 27.9 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 22.4

Raul Neto (FD-PG, DK-PG) – only if Trey Burke out
FD — $3,700
DK — $3,000
Min/Game — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 18.8
FP/Game — Season: 11.1

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)