NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-27 15:40:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Chicago at Washington

• Vegas Line – Washington -3, 182.5 Over/Under
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat

Chicago

While I’m a relatively young guy, this is the best first round of the playoffs that I can ever remember. With the exception of the Heat/Bobcats series, every series is still up for grabs. The Bulls pulled out an extremely tough win in Game 3 after dropping the first 2 at home. I still have the Bulls winning this series, but every single game has come down to the wire and today’s game will likely be no different.

The two starters that I will continue avoid here are Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Marcin Gortat and the Wizards have been one of the only teams in the NBA that has been able to keep Noah quiet. As for Boozer, he has yet to play in the 2nd or 4th quarters which really limits his potential fantasy production. Mike Dunleavy and Jimmy Butler are both in play on the wing. Butler has the higher floor and Dunleavy has the higher ceiling.

• Taj Gibson – It can be hard trusting a player that comes off the bench, but with the Bulls it may actually be better to target the two top bench players instead of the starters. Gibson plays starter’s minutes and has been the best big man so far for the Bulls in this series. He is averaging 29 FP’s per game this series and should continue that level of production moving forward.

• D.J. Augustin – Augustin is in the same boat as Gibson. While he doesn’t technically start, he plays starter’s minutes and sees the lion share of minutes at the PG spot. Augustin is also averaging 28 FP’s per game this series and he is a player that no one seems to be targeting in cash games. I think he’s a safe play in all leagues today.

Washington

The Wizards got some bad news yesterday as it was announced that Nene Hilario will be suspended for Game 4 of the series after trying to pull some type of wrestling moves on Jimmy Butler. His absence gives a nice fantasy boost to Marcin Gortat and will likely mean more minutes for both Trevor Booker and Drew Gooden. All three are in play here, but Gortat is probably the safest of the 3. He has actually outplayed Joakim Noah in this series and his price is considerably cheaper.

The other options on the Wizards are Bradley Beal and Trevor Ariza who have both played well in this series despite a tough matchup against the Bulls. Beal is averaging 36 FP’s per game and has hit big shot after big shot in this series. He’s young, but he’s certainly not afraid of the big moment. Ariza is averaging 31 FP’s per game and is a nice value at SF.

• John Wall – Wall is my top play here for two reasons. First, he is playing at home where he averaged over 40 FP’s per game during the regular season. Second, he has the highest ceiling of any player on the Wizards. Wall is averaging 36 FP’s per game in this series and he has yet to have a breakout game offensively. I think we see it today as the Wizards do not want to head back to Chicago after dropping 2 straight at home.

L.A.Clippers at Golden State

• Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -2, 209.5 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Green-Lee

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers took a 2-1 lead after picking up a big win in Golden State in Game 3. However, they may have a tough time focusing after the comments made by their owner Donald Sterling. It’s just an extremely tough situation for the Clippers’ players and coaches. That said, they are professionals and Doc Rivers should have his players ready to go today.

This series is one of the faster paced series in the first round which typically translates to fantasy production. Chris Paul is always in play in big games, but I think I’d rather save some cap space and go with some of the cheaper options at PG. DeAndre Jordan is coming off of a career playoff performance in Game 3 with 14 points and 22 rebounds.

• Blake Griffin – After getting in foul trouble in the first game of the series, Griffin has come out and dominated the thin front-court of the Warriors. He is able to get position deep in the paint and once that happens all the Warriors can do is foul him. Griffin has scored 44 and 49 FP’s in the last two games and should top that 45 FP mark again today.

Golden State

The Warriors are in a must win situation today. If they lose this game, they will be down 3-1 and would have to win 3 straight including two in L.A. With this game being a must win, I expect a big performance out of the Warriors. Stephen Curry and David Lee have both struggled in this series and I think there are better options at their price points. Andre Iguodala and Jermaine O’Neal are both nice punt plays.

• Klay Thompson – Klay got into foul trouble in Game 2, but has scored at least 35 FP’s in each of the other 2 games this series. He has been the best scorer on the Warriors and after a big second half in Game 3, I expect the Warriors to lean heavily on him in this game. He has nice upside for a player at his price point.

• Draymond Green – Green is seeing extended minutes with Bogut out and he has been terrific for the Warriors over the last two months. He has always played well at home where he can feed off of the crowd’s energy. He is coming off of his best game of the series with 39 FP’s.

Toronto at Brooklyn

• Vegas Line – Brooklyn -5, 191 Over/Under
• Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
• Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett

Toronto

The Raptors find themselves down 2-1 in this series facing a must-win Game 4. This has been a terrific series to watch as every game has come down to the final few minutes. This is still one of the slowest paced matchups though and both teams own a top 10 defense. The biggest problem with the Raptors is that they haven’t had any consistent fantasy options through the first 3 games. Kyle Lowry has struggled to get thing going offensively, Jonas Valanciunas production has decreased in each game, and Amir Johnson is probably better served as a GPP play.

• DeMar DeRozan – DeRozan has surprised me in these playoffs. After a rough Game 1, he has bounced back nicely and has been the Raptors’ best player thus far. DeRozan has scored 30 and 44 FP’s in his last 2 games and should be targeted in cash games. With SG being a tough position to fill, DeRozan offers a nice play thanks to his high floor.

Brooklyn

The Nets have looked like the playoff tested team that they are. While they haven’t been in the playoffs together, their individual experience has really carried them to a 2-1 series advantage. Deron Williams is coming off of his best game in the series and could make for an interesting GPP play. Kevin Garnett continues to produce, but with only 20 minutes of playing time, it’s hard to use him in any type of league today.

In terms of potential fantasy production this still isn’t a great matchup for the Nets, but there are two players that I will have a lot of exposure to:

• Paul Pierce – I’m still waiting for Pierce’s break out game offensively, but that has not stopped him from having productive fantasy outings. He is averaging 26 FP’s per game in this series and is one of my favorite values on the board tonight. I have a feeling that this will be his first game in the series where he scores more than 20 actual points.

• Joe Johnson – I seem to be the only one targeting Johnson in this matchup and that is more than OK with me. He is averaging 31 FP’s per game and his price is still cheap across the industry. He’s typically in the same price range as Jimmy Butler and Johnson has much more upside.

Houston at Portland

• Vegas Line – Portland -3, 216 Over/Under
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
• Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez

Houston

After dropping the first 2 games at home, the Rockets came out and took Game 3 from the Blazers in Portland thanks to an unlikely D-League hero who had only played in 7 games all season long. This is the 2nd series where the home team has yet to record a win. The Rockets have to feel much better about their chances now and if they can pick up a win tonight, they will re-establish control of this series.

James Harden is coming off of his biggest game of the series, but he is still struggling from the field. Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum are doing a great job defensively on him. At his price point, I’d rather take a player with more consistent production, at least for cash games. Patrick Beverley is averaging over 23 FP’s per game in this series and makes a nice punt play if you are looking to save some cap space at PG.

• Dwight Howard – I’ve said this in every game of this series: TARGET DWIGHT HOWARD. The Blazers just don’t have anyone that can defend him down low and the only way that he won’t dominate the paint is if he gets into foul trouble. Harden has scored at least 43 FP’s in every game this series and should continue that streak tonight.

Portland

The Blazers have really played well in this series and could take complete control with a win in Game 4. Portland is a great basketball town and even though I’m not a Blazers fan, watching the games on TV makes me wish that I was there in the crowd cheering with them. There are a lot of viable fantasy options here because the Rockets have the worst defense of any team in the playoffs. LaMarcus Aldridge is certainly in play after his 2 huge performances in Games 1 and 2. Wesley Matthews price is depressed across the board. And Mo Williams makes a nice sleeper play in a GPP as he is coming off of his best game of the series.

• Nicolas Batum – Batum has posted 34, 20, and 48 FP’s in the first 3 games of this series. While that production is wildly inconsistent, he always has good home numbers and he’s one of my favorite plays heading into Game 4. His price is reasonable and he has as much upside as anyone on this Blazers team because he does everything on the court well.

• Damian Lillard – Everyone keeps waiting for Lillard to have a bad game, but I’m not sure that it’s going to happen. He is playing with an extremely high level of confidence right now and the pesky Patrick Beverley has had little impact on Lillard. He is averaging 45 FP’s per game in this series.