NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 28 - Page Two
Minnesota at Dallas – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -7, 214 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Wiggins-Wiggins-Dieng-Dieng
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Williams-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
| Minnesota | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.09 | Team Pace | 96.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Andrew Wiggins | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 11 | Opp. Season | 22 | 21 | 15 | 8 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 29 | Opp. Season | 23 | 30 | 24 | 2 | 3 | |
Minnesota
Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.9 (15 of 30)
Dallas has been an average defensive squad this year and are ranked in the middle of the league in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Timberwolves have a projected team total of 103.8, which is 2.8 points higher than their season average. There are currently no injury concerns for the Twolves other than the usual big men who have been out for months now.
Elite Plays
Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns has really taken the league by storm this year and has been dominating as of late. He is coming off a monster 59 points effort against the Pelicans and his dominance should continue against Zaza inside today. You can truly make a case for any of the 8k+ center options being the best today as they all have tremendous upside.
FD — $8,900 — C
DK — $8,500 — C
Usage – 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.7
If he gets the start again today, he is a great option for his sub 5k price over at FanDuel. He was very highly owned last night after the news broke that he would start and I would imagine another high ownership again in what should be a fast paced game.
FD — $4,900 — SG
DK — $5,300 — SG
Usage – 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 25.0
Secondary Plays
Dieng has the best matchup of all the Wolves as the Mavs and Dirk have the 27th ranked defense against the power forward position. Dieng has shown 38 fantasy point potential and a floor close to 30 making him a great option today.
FD — $6,500 — PF
DK — $6,800 — PF
Usage – 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 26.5
Dallas
Minnesota Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +0.7 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.24 (14 of 30)
Minnesota is a slightly below average defensive squad this year and are ranked 13th or lower in all the above defensive categories. Dallas has the second highest team total on the board today at 110.3, which is 8.8 points higher than their season average. Dallas has no injury concerns currently.
Elite Plays
It is never exactly easy to trust the Mavs as they spread the ball around and they do not have a true star that takes over the game on a consistent basis. Parsons at times, has taken on that role though and has put up at least 24 real points in four of his last six games. He is priced fairly for this matchup and should reach value as the Mavs have such a high team total.
FD — $6,600 — SF
DK — $6,300 — SF
Usage – 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 28.6
Secondary Plays
I have not really played Dirk too many times this year, but his game logs are tough to ignore at the moment. He is coming off back to back 40+ point fantasy efforts and is still priced 7k or under. Dirk could dominate the young T-wolves squad tonight, and the risk level appears to be lower than it was earlier in the season.
FD — $7,000 — PF
DK — $6,500 — PF
Usage – 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.3
Miami at New York – 07:30 PM
- Vegas Line – New York -1, 198.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Winslow—Stoudemire
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Miami | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.33 | Team Pace | 95.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Justise Winslow | Amar’e Stoudemire | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | ||
| Opp. Season | 18 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 16 | Opp. Season | 2 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 29 | 28 | 7 | 15 | Opp. Season | 11 | 15 | 25 | 20 | 2 | |
Miami
New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.2 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.3 (11 of 30)
New York is an average defensive squad this year that are ranked in the middle of the league in the above defensive categories. The Heat have a 101.3 team total, which is one of the lower totals of the day. Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Beno Udrih and Tyler Johnson all continue to be out for the Heat.
Elite Plays
While it is always tough to pay up for someone coming off the bench, Whiteside’s numbers have been solid since Chris Bosh has sat out. He appears to be a lock for around 32 minutes per game and is a double double lock each time he steps onto the court. The upside really comes from his blocks, which he had eight against the Celtics in the last game. While I like Towns and Vucevic a bit more, Whiteside is clearly in play for tournaments today.
FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $8,000 — C
Usage – 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.7
While we all thought Wade would go nuts without Bosh, he has only shown that true once out of the last three games. He will take another shot at it again in what is an average matchup against the 13th ranked defense of the Knicks. While there are solid plays priced under Wade at the shooting guard position, Wade does have big upside and makes a solid tournament play.
FD — $7,500 — SG
DK — $7,000 — SG
Usage – 30.8
Min/Game — Season: 30.6
Secondary Plays
The other beneficiary of the Bosh injury has clearly been Deng. He has been revitalized over the last few weeks and is not played 35+ minutes each night and has had some monster games lately. With Wade back on the court his numbers do decrease a bit making him a secondary play due to his price increase as well.
FD — $6,000 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
Usage – 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.7
Another guy on this Heat squad that has been playing consistent basketball recently is Dragic. He does not have huge upside, but at his price, you only need about 30 fantasy points, which he has hit in four of his last five games.
FD — $6,300 — PG
DK — $6,400 — PG
Usage – 20.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.5
New York
Miami Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.5 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +2.2 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 188.75 (4 of 30)
The Heat have been one of the better defensive squads in the NBA this year. They are ranked in the top six in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. With that said, the Knicks do have a 103.8 team total today for fifth highest on the slate.
Elite Plays
Ranked just behind Paul George, Melo is a solid play today at the small forward position. While the Heat have been great defensively, they are ranked 17th in the league at defending the small forward spot and Anthony has turned his game up a bit recently shooting the ball over 20 times a game in three of his last four. I would not argue if you went with either George or Melo today as both make solid plays.
FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $8,400 — SF
Usage – 28.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.0
Secondary Plays
Porzingis is a decent play today as he has been play more minutes recently. If can see the court for 32+ minutes, he should easily be able to reach value for his sub 7k price across the industry.
FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $6,600 — PF
Usage – 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 28.2