NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Cleveland at Washington – 01:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -5.5, 211.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Porter-Dudley-Gortat
| Cleveland | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211 |  | Vegas Total | 211 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.5 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.14 | Team Pace | 100.25 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Proj Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Otto Porter | Jared Dudley | Marcin Gortat | ||
| Opp. Season | 15 | 24 | 26 | 10 | 14 | Opp. Season | 19 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 13 | Opp. Season | 27 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 8 | |
Note – Hey guys, my real job is an elementary school teacher and usually once every few years I get very sick. Well, the flu struck me yesterday and am very under the weather. Sorry about getting this out about 30 minutes late today.
Cleveland
Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.3 (17 of 30)
The Wizards improvement on offense this year has led to a drastic decline in their defensive statistics. They are currently in the bottom half of the league in all the above defensive categories including being ranked 24th in points allowed per game. This game is one of many today that features a 210+ overall total and the Cavaliers feature a projected team total of 108, which is 4.9 points higher than their season average and third highest of the day. The only injury concern for the Cavs is Mo Williams who is not traveling with the team for this two game road trip, but does not factor too much into the offense anyway.
Elite Plays
NOTE – LeBron has been ruled out for this game today. This puts Irving and Love into clear elite plays, especially for the early slate where they will be extremely highly owned. It does also push J.R. Smith and Tristan Thompson into the secondary play category.
Lebron is an elite play today especially when you look at the other high priced small forwards on the all day slate. Paul George will be matched up with Aminu and Carmelo Anthony has an average matchup against the Miami Heat. Lebron has a great matchup against the Wizards who are ranked 26th in the league at defending the small forward position. Lebron has thrived in the first two matchups against the Wizards averaging 29 points, 11.5 rebounds and 4 assists. Getting him for under 10k at both major sites is a nice bargain for him today.
FD — $9,800 — SF
DK — $9,500 — PF
Usage – 31.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.9
Secondary Plays
Love makes a decent tournament play today as he has shown 40+ point potential at times, but has been a bit too inconsistent for cash games this season. With that said, the Cavs have a huge team total this afternoon and the points cannot just come from Lebron himself. Love should be in line to reach value at his price today.
FD — $7,300 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
Usage – 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.2
If you are playing the early only slate, Irving makes for a solid upside play at his price, especially at Fanduel where he is only $7,000. He crushed the Wizards in the only game he played against them this year for 45+ fantasy points. If he can come close to that, he will crush value today.
FD — $7,000 — PG
DK — $7,700 — PG
Usage – 28.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.6
Washington
Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.6 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.6 (3 of 30)
The Cavs have been a solid defensive squad all year long and their numbers show that clearly. They are a top ten defensive squad in all the above categories and are ranked second and third in points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game respectively. The Wizards feature a projected team total of 103 today, which is in the middle of the pack for team totals on this slate. The Wizards are looking healthy for this matchup other than Gary Neal who did not travel with the team today. The Wizards are in a tough spot today as they are facing an elite defensive team. John Wall is in play if you are playing the early only slate, which on FanDuel only includes this game and the CHA/ATL game. If you are playing the all day slate I would rather pay down a bit for Lowry. The rest of this Wizards squad is tough to play as no one is getting 30+ minutes anymore. With that said, I can see taking a flyer on a value play of Jared Dudley who is very cheap and has played well at times, but is risky. The other guy is obviously Otto Porter who finally had a good game in their last outing. He is cheap and if you are playing the early slate, should be a popular play.
Elite Plays
Check write up above
Secondary Plays
Check write up above
Charlotte at Atlanta – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4, 202 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Lee-Batum-Williams-Zeller
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
| Charlotte | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.74 | Team Pace | 99.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Courtney Lee | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 22 | Opp. Season | 13 | 14 | 23 | 24 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 13 | 17 | 4 | 21 | Opp. Season | 6 | 20 | 30 | 12 | 14 | |
Charlotte
Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.5 (18 of 30)
The Hawks have really improved their defensive rankings and are now third in the league in defensive efficiency and eighth in the league in total points allowed per game. The Hornets have a projected team total of only 99.3 points, which is 2.7 points lower than their season average. Spencer Hawes is again out for the Hornets, which does not make a huge difference now with Al Jefferson back in the lineup.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Batum has not been great lately, which is why he is only a secondary play. Yet, he is still getting a ton of minutes (at least 33 in his last eight games) and can put up big numbers due to the fact that he can put fantasy points up in so many different ways. He is more so in play for the early slate, but the upside is there against a Hawks squad that is ranked 22nd against the shooting guard position and 18th against the small forward.
FD — $6,500 — SG
DK — $6,700 — SG
Usage – 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.3
What happened here on Friday to Marvin Williams as he exploded against the Pacers for a 48.1 fantasy effort. He has been playing solid basketball recently as his last four games he has put up 48.1, 26, 32.4 and 26. His price has risen to a point where he is only a secondary play and really a tournament play only, but the inside defense of the Hawks has struggled this year (17th against PF and 24 against C) putting him in play today.
FD — $6,000 — PF
DK — $5,600 — PF
Usage – 15.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.2
Atlanta
Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.1 (20 of 30)
The Hornets have been about an average defensive squad this year in the league. While they are ranked 11th in the league in points allowed per game, they are ranked 20th at fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks have a projected team total of 102.8, which is right around their season average and is in the bottom half of the team totals on the slate today. The Hawks are fully healthy except for Tiago Splitter who continues to be out.
Elite Plays
Millsap just keeps churning along this year as one of the more consistent options at the power forward position every time he takes the court. He is coming off a solid 44.6 fantasy point effort against the Bulls and now gets a Hornets squad that is ranked 25th in the league at defending the power forward position.
FD — $7,900 — PF
DK — $8,000 — PF
Usage – 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.6
If you are playing the early slate, Horford looks like the easy center to choose. He has been playing some of his best basketball of the season recently and a lot could be contributed to the fact that he is also playing the most minutes of the season. He has played at least 34 minutes in seven of his last eight games and is averaging 39.7 points per game during that span. He gets a decent matchup today against the Hornets and should reach value even though his price has taken a quick rise.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
Usage – 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.1
Secondary Plays
If you are playing the early slate, Kent Bazemore is worth a tournament look as he finally came alive in the game against the Bulls. He looked more confident as he took 17 shots in that game and drove to the basket a number of times.
Portland at Indiana – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Turner-Mahinmi
| Portland | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 210 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | 107.5 | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.74 | Team Pace | 99.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Myles Turner | Ian Mahinmi | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 15 | Opp. Season | 16 | 18 | 7 | 19 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 22 | 23 | Opp. Season | 16 | 23 | 18 | 9 | 30 | |
Portland
Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.5 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.4 (10 of 30)
The Pacers are another top defensive team taking the court on this slate. They are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Blazers have a projected team total of 103.5 today, which is exactly their season average. The team is healthy going into this matchup with no injury concerns, but they are on a back-to-back against a solid defensive team.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
The matchup is not great, but Lillard has been a true offensive force recently. He has put up point totals of 31, 23, 34, 30, 51,31, 33 over his last seven games respectively. The only problem is he has not put up much in the other statistical categories. For him to reach value he needs to hit about 45-47 fantasy points, which he has only done three times during that seven game stretch. He has tremendous upside today, which makes him a great tournament play, but Lowry looks to be slightly better especially if DD sits.
FD — $9,400 — PG
DK — $9,600 — PG
Usage – 31.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.9
Prior to the dud he put up against the Bulls, McCollum had been producing very well over the last month. In February, he averaged 21.4 points per game and four assists and four rebounds per game. He gets the best matchup for the Blazers as the Pacers are ranked 18th against the shooting guard position.
FD — $7,500 — SG
DK — $7,500 — SG
Usage – 26.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.0
Indiana
Portland Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +2.9 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.16 (13 of 30)
The Blazers are about an average defensive team this year. They are ranked between 13th and 19th in the league in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers have a projected team total of 108 for this game, which is 5.5 points higher than their season average. C.J. Miles has already been ruled out for this matchup and Rodney Stuckey is on a minutes limit. This does bump up George Hill into some guaranteed minutes making him in play today as a cheap point guard.
Elite Plays
For the night slate, if you want to pay up for small forward (which is not a must with the value at the position) the choice between Melo and George comes down to matchups as they are priced very closely. The Pacers get a higher Pace opponent today and George has shown to have a bit higher upside recently as he has put up two 50-fantasy point efforts in his last three games. George gets the slight nod even though he is facing a team that defends the small forward position at a better rate.
FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $8,700 — SF
Usage – 29.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.5
Secondary Plays
While I do not love the fact that Turner has been playing just around 30 minutes per game, the power forward position for the night slate does not have many studs going, which means we are going to have a few choices to make around the 6k range. The Blazers are ranked 20th in the league at defending the power forward position and if he can keep the first quarter momentum going today, he should reach value easily.
FD — $5,600 — PF
DK — $6,000 — PF
Usage – 19.5
Min/Game — Season: 21.8
If you want a guy at 5k that will play 30+ minutes against a squad that is ranked 20th against the center position, Mahinmi is your guy. He has been over 23 fantasy points in five of his last six games and at his price he makes a solid value play.
FD — $5,000 — C
DK — $5,000 — C
Usage – 14.1
Min/Game — Season: 25.0
Toronto at Detroit – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris—Drummond
| Toronto | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.61 | Team Pace | 97.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | James Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Andre Drummond | ||
| Opp. Season | 12 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 9 | Opp. Season | 3 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 6 | Opp. Season | 3 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 5 | |
Toronto
Detroit Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.3 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.66 (8 of 30)
The Pistons are an above average defensive squad this year as they are in the top 11 in all the above defensive categories. No Vegas totals are out for this game as the big news to keep an eye on during the day today is that of DeMar DeRozan. He sat out of practice on Saturday and if he sits on Sunday, guys like Terrence Ross and Cory Joseph will be great value plays, while Kyle Lowry will also get a bump in usage.
Elite Plays
NOTE – Kyle Lowry is out of the lineup. This gives a huge boost to Cory Joseph and he is one of the top value plays on the board today. It also gives a boost to DeMar DeRozan who is likely to suit up.
Lowry is one of the top options on this late slate regardless, but if DeRozan sits out, he would get a nice bump and would have just as much upside as anyone playing tonight. He is coming off one of the games of his life as he put up 43 real life points on route to a 68.5 fantasy effort.
FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $8,600 — PG
Usage – 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 37.0
Secondary Plays
Check the news as if DeRozan is out, both Terrence Ross and Cory Joseph would be solid plays today.
Detroit
Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.4 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.5 (5 of 30)
The Raptors are a top five defensive squad this year in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game this year. There is no Vegas total yet as they are likely waiting for DeRozan news. The Pistons continue to be without Spencer Dinwiddie, Stanley Johnson, Jodie Meeks and Anthony Tolliver who are all out with injuries.
Elite Plays
Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris
Both of these guys are playing extremely similar basketball right now as both are playing a ton of minutes and both are putting up about 30 fantasy point efforts which is just above value for their prices. While the matchup is not great, the consistency is clearly there and the price points are hard to ignore especially at FanDuel where they have been slow to increase.
FD — $5,900 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
Usage – 20.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.9
FD — $5,400 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SF
Usage – 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 36.2
Drummond has the best matchup of all the Pistons as the Raptors are ranked 18th in the league at defending the Center position. Drummond is almost a lock for about 12+/15+ games each time he steps on the court. His upside is about 50 fantasy points these days, which is very possible, as he has stayed on the court with a lot more consistency this year.
FD — $8,500 — C
DK — $8,200 — C
Usage – 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.7
Secondary Plays
It is tough to suggest four Pistons today against a solid defensive squad in the Raptors, but at this point the Pistons are playing a short bench and the starters are playing around 35 minutes each. Jackson needs about 35 fantasy points for value, which he has been above in three of his last four games.
FD — $6,700 — PG
DK — $6,900 — PG
Usage – 29.3
Min/Game — Season: 30.9
Philadelphia at Orlando – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Orlando -10.5, 210.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Covington-Noel-Okafor
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Fournier—Gordon-Vucevic
| Philadelphia | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.98 | Team Pace | 97.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Nik Stauskas | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | ||
| Opp. Season | 20 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 10 | Opp. Season | 23 | 16 | 28 | 28 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 19 | Opp. Season | 17 | 18 | 27 | 25 | 27 | |
Philadelphia
Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.1 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.8 (19 of 30)
The Magic are around an average defensive squad this year. They are ranked between 12th and 19th in all the above defensive categories. The 76ers have a team total of 100.3, which is actually 4.3 points higher than their season average. Keep an eye on the news for Nerlens Noel as he left the game on Friday and is currently questionable today.
Elite Plays
If Noel sits today, it will solidify the minutes for Okafor and should bump him up to about 35 minutes tonight. If he can see the court for that amount of time, he could easily hit value for his price in this matchup today in what should be a very high scoring matchup against the Magic.
FD — $6,300 — C
DK — $6,100 — C
Usage – 24.8
Min/Game — Season: 30.1
Secondary Plays
Covington came back to life in their game on Friday as he got to see the court for 30+ minutes and put up 36.4 fantasy points. He is risky as he has not seen that much court time in the four previous games, but we all know his upside is there and could easily repeat that effort against the Magic and their 20th ranked defense against the small forward position.
FD — $5,000 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SF
Usage – 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 26.9
Orlando
Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.3 (28 of 30)
The 76ers are one of the worst defensive squads in the NBA as they are ranked in the bottom third of the league in all the above defensive categories. The Magic have the highest projected team total today at 110.8, which is a full 10 points higher than their season average. There are currently no injury concerns for the Magic.
Note – Evan Fournier will not suit up today. This guarantees Oladipo’s minutes and Mario Hezonja will start. He is a tournament play only as he is near minimum price at both sites.
Elite Plays
Vuc kills the 76ers every time they take the court and that has continued this year. In two matchups, Vucevic has averaged 25 points and 10 rebounds against the lowly Philly squad. Something close to that should be in store for him today making him a very safe option at the center position today.
FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,900 — C
Usage – 24.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.1
Oladipo’s thigh bruise did not seem to bring his minutes down at all on Friday as he played 35 minutes and put up a 30.7 fantasy game. The matchup is much better today against the 76ers and he should easily reach value for his price tag of around 7k.
FD — $6,800 — SG
DK — $7,100 — SG
Usage – 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 31.9
The price tag has risen, especially on Draftkings, yet he gets a great matchup against the 76ers and gets a nice bump if the shot blocking of Noel is not in the game tonight. He has been very consistent as he has put up at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last eight games and should do the same today.
FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $6,700 — PF
Usage – 16.1
Min/Game — Season: 22.6
Secondary Plays
Fournier never got going in the game on Friday as foul trouble really kept him on the bench for long periods of time. He will get a chance for redemption today against a Philly squad that he had a 33.6 fantasy effort against just three games ago. He is a great salary cap saver at the shooting guard position today.
FD — $5,400 — SG
DK — $6,000 — SG
Usage – 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.9