NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 5th Page Two
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New York at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -6.5, 202 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Udrih-Shumpert-Anthony-Bargnani-Chandler
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
New York
The Knicks will be without Raymond Felton once again tonight as they travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. The Knicks have played well in their last two outings and are getting the benefit of the doubt from Vegas in this one. The Knicks are only 6.5 point underdogs and the total for this game is one of the highest on the schedule today at 202 points.
Looking at the Mavericks DvP rankings, they have defended the PF position well, but haven’t defended any of the other four positions particularly well. With Felton out of tonight’s game, Beno Udrih continues to make a nice value play. He should see over 30 minutes in a favorable matchup. Iman Shumpert has really picked up his level of play, he’s averaged over 30 FP’s in his last 3 games and also makes a nice value play.
- Carmelo Anthony – The Knicks will need a big game out of Melo if they are going to keep this game close. The Mavericks have been pretty average at defending the SF position and Melo can create his own shot anytime that he wants to. Melo has a decent shot at topping 40 FP’s in what should be a high scoring game.
Dallas
The Mavericks are taking on a Knicks team that is only averaging 92 possessions per 48 minutes, but this Knicks team has really started to push the pace over their last 3 games. Vegas expects this game to be fairly high scoring and I tend to agree. The Knicks have really defended the paint well this season as evidenced by their top 3 rankings against both PF’s and Centers. It’s safe to avoid both Dirk Nowitzki and Samuel Dalembert here.
- Monta Ellis – Ellis has really played well at home this season where he is averaging over 35 FP’s per game. He has a great matchup against the Knicks who are currently ranked 20th against opposing SG’s this season. Look for Monta to push the pace and make some plays in transition.
- Jose Calderon – Calderon can be a bit of a wild-card sometimes as Monta often handles the ball a lot more than a typical SG would. Calderon has been playing well though and has really shot the ball well from distance. His price is affordable across the board and I really like his matchup against Udrih.
Denver at L.A.Lakers
- Vegas Line – Denver -2.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Hamilton-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Young-Hill-Gasol
Denver
The Nuggets and Lakers face off tonight in what is expected to be a high scoring game. The total for this game is set at 203 points which actually seems a little low to me considering the fact that both of these teams average at least 98 possessions per 48 minutes.
The Lakers have had the second worst defense this season. They rank in the bottom 3 at defending every position except for SF’s. There are quite a few options on the Nuggets tonight. Kenneth Faried and J.J. Hickson both have great matchups down low, but there is an inherent risk with them as their minutes distribution varies from game to game.
- Ty Lawson – Lawson has almost as much upside as Curry and Wall, yet he is much cheaper than they are across the industry. Lawson is facing a Lakers defense that is ranked 28th against PG’s this season. Look for him to really push the tempo. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20 point, 10 rebound performance out of him tonight.
- Wilson Chandler – Chandler had a nice stretch there for a while where he basically topped 25 FP’s in every game. He’s come back down to Earth in his last few games though. He is very affordable tonight and makes a great play at the SF position where there aren’t many other options.
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers are in a favorable spot tonight against a team that also likes to push the tempo. There was a lot of debate about the value of Kendall Marshall once Jordan Farmar went down, but I will take any PG in a D’Antoni offense. His offense is set up to inflate the numbers of a PG and we really saw Marshall play well the other night. Don’t try to out-think everyone here, Marshall remains a great play, especially considering his low price tag. In addition to Marshall, I also like Meeks and Gasol.
- Jodie Meeks – I like Meeks a bit more than Nick Young tonight. Not only does he fill up the stat sheet better, but he has a better individual matchup. Young will be defended by Chandler who is a very good defender. Meeks has topped 23 FP’s in 7 of his last 8 games and should reach that mark tonight against the Nuggets.
- Pau Gasol – Pau is coming off of a huge fantasy performance against the Jazz the other night and he has an equally juicy matchup tonight against the Nuggets. The offense should run through Pau and I expect him to fill up the stat sheet again tonight.