NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 21st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -8.5, 197.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Dallas Mavericks Proj. Starters – Williams-Felton-Matthews-Nowitzki-Pachulia
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 197.5 | | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 96.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj. Starter | Deron Williams | Raymond Felton | Wesley Matthews | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 11 | 9 | 25 | 17 | Opp. Season | 16 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 4 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 2 | 14 | 16 | 3 | 10 | Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 20 | 26 | 5 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 55-27 — Road: 23-18 — Last 10: 5-5
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.2 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -7.2 (5 of 6)
- Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.0 (16 of 30)
Was the Mavericks’ victory in Game 2 solely thanks to Charlie Villaneuva? He messed with the pregame dance/handshake routine of Russell Westbrook and then Dallas went on to win the game. The Thunder will look to bounce back after a woeful shooting performance from Kevin Durant. While the Mavericks’ win was impressive, the Thunder would have won if Durant would have gone 8-of-33 from the floor. Crazy, right? The Thunder are sizable favorites tonight, even though the game is being played in Dallas. They have the third highest team total on the board.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Russell Westbrook | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,500 | Salary:$10,900 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.42 | FP/Min:1.56 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.4 | 33.1 | -1.3 | 29.3 | -5.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 48.8 | 46.9 | -1.9 | 43.5 | -5.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 28.3 | 27.7 | -0.7 | 25.9 | -2.5 |
After Durant went 7-for-33 from the floor, it will be interesting to see if they try to get him some easy buckets early or if Westbrook will be a little more aggressive in Game 3. Either way, Westbrook is my favorite play in this slate. He is a triple-double threat every time he takes the floor and the Mavericks don’t have anyone that can slow him down or protect him from getting to the rim.
| Kevin Durant | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,200 | Salary:$10,200 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.30 | FP/Min:1.40 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.8 | 34.7 | -1.1 | 32.2 | -3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 46.4 | 47.8 | 1.3 | 47.4 | 1.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.3 | 30.2 | 3.9 | 30.8 | 4.5 |
Durant may have missed a lot of contested shots in Game 2, but he also missed some very easy ones as well. Look for him to bounce back tonight. The best part is that his last game may lower his ownership a bit, even though it shouldn’t. With all of the value on the Warriors tonight, it’s entirely possible to make a lineup that has both Westbrook and Durant.
Secondary Plays
| Serge Ibaka | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,900 | Salary:$5,900 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.79 | FP/Min:0.85 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.1 | 30.0 | -2.1 | 28.3 | -3.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 25.4 | 25.6 | 0.3 | 21.6 | -3.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.8 | 15.9 | 1.1 | 16.5 | 1.6 |
Ibaka is one of the most frustrating players in DFS. He is way too inconsistent and there are times when he just disappears offensively. I typically like to list him strictly as a GPP play, but power forward is a barren wasteland. He is cash game playable tonight, even though he isn’t the most reliable fantasy option.
| Enes Kanter | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,500 | Salary:$5,100 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.09 | FP/Min:1.17 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 21.0 | 23.3 | 2.3 | 26.4 | 5.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 22.8 | 27.2 | 4.4 | 30.4 | 7.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.4 | 19.3 | 0.0 | 19.0 | -0.3 |
Center is a pretty deep position tonight. There are four options that look appealing, which should lower Kanter’s ownership. He is probably a better GPP play than cash game option, as his minutes and production are all over the map. For cash games, I’d rather pay up for Dwight Howard or Jonas Valanciunas or look to Andrew Bogut at a similar price point.
Dallas Mavericks
Record: 42-40 — Home: 23-18 — Last 10: 7-3
- Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.3 (16 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 94.5 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -7.8 (6 of 6)
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 8.4 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.4 (11 of 30)
The Mavericks pulled off the upset of all upsets in Game 2. Unfortunately, they need to do it three more times for it to mean much of anything. Dallas comes into Game 3 as an 8.5-point underdog with their team total set at only 94.5 points. There are two injuries to monitor ahead of tonight’s game – Deron Williams and Jose Juan Barea are both game-time decisions. Their availability impacts the fantasy appeal of Raymond Felton, Devin Harris, and Wesley Matthews.
- Injury Watch:
Deron Williams (Questionable)
Jose Juan Barea (Questionable)
David Lee (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
| Raymond Felton | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,300 | Salary:$4,700 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.72 | FP/Min:0.76 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 29.3 | 1.9 | 28.8 | 1.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 19.6 | 22.9 | 3.3 | 25.6 | 5.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.8 | 18.7 | 2.9 | 21.2 | 5.4 |
Felton’s fantasy appeal hinges on the availability of both Deron Williams and J.J. Barea. Given the nature of their injuries, I’m not sure how much we can expect from either player even if they are both active. However, with Patrick Beverley at a similar price point, I will probably only look to Felton if one or both sit tonight.
| Wesley Matthews | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,700 | Salary:$4,500 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.60 | FP/Min:0.66 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.9 | 37.9 | 4.0 | 38.8 | 4.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.4 | 22.4 | 2.0 | 20.2 | -0.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.8 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 14.1 | -0.7 |
Matthews should play close to 40 minutes tonight, regardless of whether Deron Williams or J.J. Barea plays. He will, however, see a bigger role in the offense if they are both ruled out. Shooting guard is a pretty deep position tonight, but Matthews is by far my favorite value play at the position. He is a safe target for both cash games and GPPs.
Secondary Plays
| Devin Harris | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,600 | Salary:$3,300 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.71 | FP/Min:0.76 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 20.0 | 24.9 | 4.9 | 22.5 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 14.1 | 17.4 | 3.3 | 13.1 | -1.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.0 | 16.2 | 1.2 | 15.2 | 0.2 |
Harris is in the same boat as Felton. His fantasy appeal goes up if Deron Williams and/or J.J. Barea sit out tonight. Harris saw 26 minutes of action in Game 2, finishing with 23 fantasy points. He averages 0.71 FP/min this season and could make a great value play tonight.
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -1, 193 Over/Under
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Scola-Valanciunas
- Indiana Pacers Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Allen-Mahinmi
| Toronto Raptors | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 193.0 | | Vegas Total | 193.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.30 | Team Pace | 99.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj. Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Lavoy Allen | Ian Mahinmi | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 15 | Opp. Season | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 9 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 18 | Last 3 Weeks | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 4 | |
Toronto Raptors
Record: 56-26 — Road: 24-17 — Last 10: 7-3
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.0 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -5.7 (3 of 6)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.3 (7 of 30)
The Raptors picked up a much needed win in Game 2 to even the series up at a game a piece. They now head to Indiana to look to take back homecourt advantage. Toronto is listed as a 1-point favorite with an implied team total of 97 points. While neither of these teams have an appealing total, the game is expected to be competitive throughout and the starters should see a full complement of minutes. DeMarre Carroll is expected to draw another start. Until he starts playing better or until Norman Powell sees consistent minutes, both should be avoided. DeMar DeRozan has struggled against Paul George in this series and can be avoided with all of the great options at shooting guard tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Terrence Ross (Probable)
Elite Plays
| Kyle Lowry | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,300 | Salary:$8,000 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.04 | FP/Min:1.13 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 37.0 | 35.0 | -2.0 | 30.8 | -6.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.5 | 29.0 | -9.5 | 28.5 | -10.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.8 | 22.8 | -0.1 | 23.0 | 0.1 |
Lowry finally bounced out of his slump in Game 2, finishing with 40 fantasy points in 40 minutes of action. With DeRozan struggling offensively, we could see Lowry take over in Game 3. He is a player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and I always like to lean on star players on the road in the playoffs. Role players typically play better at home.
| Jonas Valanciunas | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,500 | Salary:$6,000 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.04 | FP/Min:1.12 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 25.9 | 26.5 | 0.6 | 22.0 | -3.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.9 | 28.1 | 1.2 | 24.8 | -2.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 17.0 | 17.8 | 0.8 | 21.9 | 4.9 |
I feel like I’m late to the Valanciunas party. It’s one of those things where I feel like once I finally show up, the party will be over. It’s hard to see him keeping up this type of efficiency against a frontcourt that has been pretty stout defensively this season. That said, I can’t ignore the 37 and 46 fantasy points that he has put up in the first two games of the series. I’ll consider him an elite cash game play tonight, but it makes sense to pivot off of him in GPPs.
Secondary Plays
| Patrick Patterson | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,900 | Salary:$3,400 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.60 | FP/Min:0.65 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 25.6 | 27.7 | 2.1 | 24.7 | -0.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 15.3 | 17.3 | 2.0 | 12.7 | -2.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.9 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 8.2 | -2.7 |
Luis Scola has been a non-factor in this series. Patterson is getting the bulk of the minutes at power forward and he has played well so far, scoring 19 and 23 fantasy points in the first two games. He’s not my favorite value play overall, but he does stand out as the best power forward value.
Indiana Pacers
Record: 45-37 — Home: 26-15 — Last 10: 7-3
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.2 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -6.2 (4 of 6)
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.6 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.6 (5 of 30)
The Pacers accomplished their goal of stealing homecourt advantage from the Raptors. They can now win the series if they can protect their home floor. Even though this game is being played in Indiana, the Pacers are listed as 1-point underdogs. They are projected to score 96 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board. So far in this series, it has basically been the Paul George show. Look for the role players to see a boost in production now that the series shifts to Indiana.
- Injury Watch:
Monta Ellis (Probable)
Ian Mahinmi (Probable)
Myles Turner (Probable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Paul George | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,800 | Salary:$9,000 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.12 | FP/Min:1.22 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.8 | 31.2 | -3.6 | 27.6 | -7.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.1 | 37.0 | -2.1 | 31.2 | -7.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.2 | 23.6 | -1.6 | 23.0 | -2.2 |
The Pacers were able to steal a game in Toronto thanks to the play of their superstar. He is averaging 45 fantasy points in the first two games and he’s been able to get a lot of good looks, even against this stout Raptors’ defense. He is the top small forward target tonight, but given all the superstars in this slate, I may end up punting the position.
| George Hill | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,500 | Salary:$4,000 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.68 | FP/Min:0.73 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.1 | 29.3 | -4.8 | 30.5 | -3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.3 | 19.0 | -4.2 | 23.3 | 0.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.0 | 13.0 | -1.0 | 13.7 | -0.3 |
Hill has not played well in the first two games of the series, but should put together a better outing tonight at home. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s with the potential for more if he is playing well. At his price point, I’m willing to overlook the first two games.
| Solomon Hill | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,800 | Salary:$3,200 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.68 | FP/Min:0.74 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 14.7 | 24.9 | 10.2 | 31.4 | 16.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 10.1 | 19.6 | 9.5 | 29.3 | 19.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 11.2 | 13.1 | 1.9 | 15.0 | 3.8 |
Hill has played big minutes in this series, averaging 27 through the first two games. He really played well down the stretch of the regular season and he has carried that momentum into the postseason. He is yet another punt play that I like, but don’t love tonight.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 9:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 215 Over/Under
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Livingston-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Houston Rockets Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Golden State Warriors | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 215.0 | | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.0 | Team Proj. | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.60 | Team Pace | 100.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Shaun Livingston | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj. Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 18 | Opp. Season | 20 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 19 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 14 | 23 | 27 | 6 | 17 | Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 10 | 25 | 28 | 6 | |
Golden State Warriors
Record: 73-9 — Road: 34-7 — Last 10: 8-2
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 114.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.0 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -4.9 (2 of 6)
- Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.8 (25 of 30)
The Warriors picked up a win without their MVP in Game 2 and they may have the same task again tonight, as the series shifts to Houston. Curry is likely going to be a game-time decision, but said that he didn’t expect to play when asked on Wednesday. If Curry is out, the entire Warriors’ lineup sees a major fantasy boost. Shaun Livingston would draw another start at point guard, while Draymond Green and Klay Thompson would run the offense. Unless we hear otherwise, I am going to build my lineups as if Curry is going to sit.
- Injury Watch:
Stephen Curry (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Draymond Green | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,000 | Salary:$9,400 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.13 | FP/Min:1.23 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.7 | 35.8 | 1.1 | 34.2 | -0.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.1 | 41.0 | 1.9 | 34.1 | -5.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 15.5 | -0.5 | 14.8 | -1.2 |
Green should not be faded in cash games and in my opinion, shouldn’t be faded in tournaments either. Even if he ends up being 80% owned, he is such a good play that I will just eat the chalk and look to diversify my lineups elsewhere. He should fill up all areas of the stat sheet again tonight and the offense will run through him if Curry is unable to suit up.
| Klay Thompson | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,500 | Salary:$7,400 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.93 | FP/Min:1.01 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.3 | 35.5 | 2.2 | 34.8 | 1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.9 | 29.2 | -1.7 | 28.8 | -2.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 20.3 | -2.0 | 18.9 | -3.4 |
Thompson is in the same boat as Draymond Green, although I don’t consider him an absolute must in tournaments. He could end up with 25 shots tonight if Stephen Curry is out and as we know, the Rockets do not defend shooting guards well.
| Andre Iguodala | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,900 | Salary:$3,900 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.70 | FP/Min:0.75 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 26.6 | 24.7 | -1.9 | 24.7 | -1.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 18.5 | 12.9 | -5.6 | 12.9 | -5.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.7 | 8.2 | -2.6 | 8.2 | -2.6 |
Iguodala broke out of his slump with a 31 fantasy point outing in Game 3. He sees a nice usage boost without Stephen Curry in the lineup, as the Warriors like to run plays through him. At his price point, I expect him to be one of the most popular small forward targets tonight.
| Shaun Livingston | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,700 | Salary:$4,100 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.74 | FP/Min:0.79 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 19.5 | 21.1 | 1.6 | 20.1 | 0.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 14.3 | 16.8 | 2.4 | 17.2 | 2.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 12.7 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 0.3 |
I was hoping the sites would adjust the salary for Livingston ahead of this game. If Curry ends up sitting out, Livingston is going to be very highly owned and for good reason. In his start in Game 2, he played 29 minutes and scored 29 fantasy points.
Secondary Plays
| Harrison Barnes | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,600 | Salary:$4,600 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.68 | FP/Min:0.72 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.9 | 33.9 | 3.0 | 32.4 | 1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.0 | 22.9 | 2.0 | 21.7 | 0.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 13.8 | 13.5 | -0.4 | 14.3 | 0.5 |
No one ever gets excited when they play Barnes, but he should see minutes in the mid-30s against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. He has a habit of letting us down, but doesn’t have to do a whole lot in order to reach value at a price of $4,600.
| Andrew Bogut | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,500 | Salary:$4,200 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:0.97 | FP/Min:1.03 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 20.7 | 20.3 | -0.4 | 23.8 | 3.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.2 | 16.8 | -3.3 | 23.0 | 2.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 9.5 | 7.3 | -2.1 | 7.5 | -1.9 |
Bogut has played well in this series, averaging 22 fantasy points in 22 minutes per game. He did get into foul trouble in Game 1 and I expect him to play around 25 minutes if he stays out of foul trouble tonight.
Houston Rockets
Record: 41-41 — Home: 23-18 — Last 10: 6-4
- Houston Rockets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 106.5 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.0 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (1 of 6)
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.8 (17 of 30)
The Rockets only chance in this series is if Stephen Curry is out for the next few games. They need to pick up a win tonight to at least put some pressure on the defending champs. Vegas is expecting a much closer game in Houston, as the Rockets are only 5-point underdogs. This game’s total is set at 215 points, which is 18 points above the next highest total. Get as much exposure as you can to players from both sides of the ball.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| James Harden | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,200 | Salary:$10,600 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.25 | FP/Min:1.36 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 38.1 | 40.5 | 2.4 | 38.1 | 0.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 47.7 | 50.0 | 2.3 | 47.8 | 0.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.4 | 27.7 | 0.2 | 29.3 | 1.9 |
If I had to prioritize the superstars in this slate, I’d probably put Russell Westbrook as my number one target, followed closely by James Harden. He hasn’t played well in the first two games, but he had a monster series against the Warriors last seasons. He should play 40+ minutes in a must-win Game 3 at home.
| Dwight Howard | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,800 | Salary:$6,400 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.02 | FP/Min:1.10 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.1 | 28.2 | -3.9 | 29.7 | -2.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.9 | 27.0 | -5.9 | 31.3 | -1.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.5 | 12.2 | -2.4 | 13.3 | -1.2 |
Before the first two games of the playoffs, Howard would have had a much higher ownership than Jonas Valanciunas at their respective price points. However, with Val playing so well, I expect him to be the most popular target at center tonight. Howard makes a great pivot in tournaments.
| Patrick Beverley | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,900 | Salary:$5,000 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.74 | FP/Min:0.80 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 28.7 | 31.7 | 3.0 | 32.0 | 3.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.1 | 28.5 | 7.4 | 31.0 | 9.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 13.7 | 14.8 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 0.4 |
Without Stephen Curry in the lineup in Game 2, Beverley was able to stay out of foul trouble. He played 33 minutes and score 28 fantasy points. He is an elite play in what will be the highest score game of the night. Even though Livingston is a better defender, I would give Beverley a slight boost if Curry is out again.
Secondary Plays
| Trevor Ariza | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,900 | Salary:$5,700 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.70 | FP/Min:0.76 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.3 | 36.4 | 1.1 | 33.8 | -1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.8 | 25.3 | 0.6 | 27.3 | 2.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 13.6 | 13.7 | 0.1 | 14.3 | 0.7 |
If you don’t want to target Harrison Barnes, but still want to stick to that mid-range at small forward, Ariza is a viable alternative. He could end up playing close to 40 minutes tonight and we all know the type of upside that he has when he starts knocking down threes.
