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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 27th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-28 03:12:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks
Article Image Vegas Total 195.0 Article Image Vegas Total 195.0
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 96.8 Team Total 98.3
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 16 7 10 7 15 Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 10
DRPM -0.73 -0.79 0.54 1.49 -0.53 DRPM 0.62 -2.21 -1.29 1.09 0.84

Toronto Raptors

With Norman Powell in the starting five the Raptors have won two straight. Their current lineup may be working for the team, but it’s had a negative impact on Kyle Lowry’s production. In Game 5, Lowry had a usage rate of 18.8%, which was lower than all the other starters, including DeMarre Carroll. He still managed to score 16 and dish ten assists on his way to 38.6 FD points, but he did so on nine FGAs while Powell, DeRozan, and Ibaka took ten or more. In Game 4 he managed to launch 17 times from the field, although he was inefficient as he scored 18. With all of these shooters on the floor, they all cut into each other’s production. Fortunately, Lowry is getting plenty of minutes without DeRozan and Ibaka due to the current rotations employed by coach Dwane Casey. He played 11 minutes without either guy on the floor in Game 5, and in that time he enjoyed a usage rate of 38.5% and roughly scored 17.4 FD points. For comparison, he played 20.1 minutes with both players on the court and had a usage rate of 9.2% and scored 14.3 FD points. Norman Powell was on for all of those minutes as well, but just 2.7 of the 11 Lowry played without Ibaka and DeRozan. Of course, this is an incredibly small sample. However, if we include Game 4, Lowry still had a 9.3% usage rate over both games (40.1 minutes) when he shared the court with Ibaka and DeRozan while they had usages of 29.9% and 30.2%, respectively. Ibaka has produced 1.37 FD ppm in this scenario and DeRozan has returned 1.02. Powell has spent 39.0 minutes with all three players since starting and he’s had a usage of 18.6% and delivered 0.79 FD ppm. The data seems to imply that Lowry will need to continue getting playing time without the other two stars in order to produce a bunch of fantasy points, this also indicates his ceiling is capped considering he’s normally sharing the court with them for around 20 minutes a night. However, there are only two point guards above $5.6k on FD tonight, which makes him one of the best options by default.

If we look at the series as a whole, DeRozan leads the team with a 31.2% usage rate, followed by Ibaka at 26.0%. Ibaka leads the team with 1.04 FD ppm while Powell, with his 22.4% usage rate is second with an average pace of 1.01 FD ppm. First, Powell’s price tag on FanDuel seems ridiculous; he’s $2,600 on the site, which is $500 cheaper than last game when he scored 39.8 FD points. He’s now topped 21 in three straight games and he came off the bench once during that stretch. He will undoubtedly be highly owned on FD tonight. On DraftKings he’s over double the price at $5,500. That seems more accurate, and he’s still firmly in play at small forward based on his production in this series – he’s played 34 minutes in consecutive games, and he’s set a pace of 1.09 DK ppm. That said, we need to temper expectations a bit as he shot 72.7% from the field in Game 5 and was perfect from downtown (4-for-4). With Khris Middleton’s price dropping to $6,300, it’s tempting to spend the extra $800 as he provides a better points-per-dollar projection. Of course, we also have Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard at the position.

Ibaka made up for his shaky shooting in Game 4 by scoring 19 points, completing 8-of-10 field goals, and turned in 36.7 FD points. He’s been doing really well on a per-minute basis, but he’s only earned 26 and 25 minutes of playing time in each of the past two contests. Over the past two games, Casey hasn’t played Jonas Valanciunas and Ibaka together, but he’s still getting JV 20-22 minutes a night. Ibaka has also been in a little foul trouble the past two games, so it’s possible he gets back up over 30 minutes tonight, but there’s definitely some risk involved. He can still produce a bunch of fantasy points in limited time, as he’s shown the past couple of outings. If he actually gets more time on the floor, he’d be dangerous. Over the course of the series, Valanciunas has produced 0.85 FD points and he’s not getting enough time on the court to be a great fantasy target. He has a more favorable price on DraftKings at $4,400 though.

DeRozan had a down game on Monday, only scoring 18 points on 14 shots. While getting Powell on the court could bring down is offensive output a touch, we should still expect him to be the leading scorer on the team and take more field goals going forward.

Toronto has a few others in play tonight, DeMarre Carrol, P.J. Tucker, and Cory Joseph, all of whom received 20+ minutes in Game 5. Carroll starts, but P.J. Tucker always earns more time on the court. Tucker has not done anything when it comes to fantasy production though, he averages 0.37 FD ppm while Carrol has produced 0.75. Joseph may have picked up a couple of extra minutes due to Lowry’s back injury in Game 5 as he’s averaging 17.7 in this series. While he’s had a decent usage rate of 20.4%, he’s only returned 0.40 FD ppm as he’s been overshadowed by others.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $7,800 1.05 37.4 -4.2 39.4 -3.2 27.3% 0.1% 16 -0.73
DeMar DeRozan $8,800 $8,100 1.12 35.4 0.1 39.6 -2.5 34.2% 1.9% 7 -0.79
Norman Powell $2,600 $5,500 0.76 18.0 -2.9 13.6 -0.9 21.0% -1.9% 10 0.54
DeMarre Carroll $3,500 $3,000 0.66 26.1 -5.8 17.2 -8.5 15.3% -1.0% 7 1.49
Serge Ibaka $6,400 $6,500 0.89 30.7 -0.7 27.2 -9.0 20.1% -2.4% 15 -0.53
P.J. Tucker $3,100 $2,900 0.65 27.6 -4.7 17.9 -3.7 12.0% -1.3% 10 N/A
Jonas Valanciunas $5,600 $4,400 1.00 25.8 -1.9 25.8 -2.3 18.7% -0.5% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell (FD), Serge Ibaka, Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – Norman Powell (DK), DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker, Cory Joseph, Jonas Valanciunas

Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo was great in Game 5. He scored 30 points on 19 shots, nearly double-doubled with nine rebounds, and contributed three blocks and three steals. He’s been a little inconsistent in this series and his per-minute production is down 0.14 FD ppm to 1.15. Still, he’s leading the team in minutes (39.3), points (23.0), rebounds (9.8), steals (2.2), and blocks (1.6), and he’s second in assists (4.2). That’s downright impressive, and not surprisingly, he offers the highest projection on the slate. With Toronto’s small lineups, Giannis will definitely have a good chance to keep up blocking shots and rebounding. As the leader of the team, he should keep scoring. He probably won’t bring up his assists as Khris Middleton has become more of a facilitator, increasing his assist rate by 5.7% to 23.2%. Middleton’s usage has declined 3.0% to 21.5% though, and his per-minute production has fallen bit with it, dropping 0.05 FD ppm to 0.79. Fortunately, he’s averaging an extra 7.1 minutes per game to make up for that. On FanDuel, he’s one of two reliable small forwards, but his price is still around the $7k mark. On DraftKings there are more options like Giannis and Norman Powell, but his price is better at $6.3K.

As a result of Middleton’s style of play this postseason, Malcolm Brogdon’s assist rate has also declined; it’s been 19.3% this series after he posted a 24.4% rate this season. In Game 5, he finished with three assists, but he took on more of a scoring role and finished with 19 points on 11 shots. Coming into the game, he was averaging 8.8 FGAs this series, which was in line with his regular season numbers. It makes sense for him to take more attempts though as he’s earning an extra 5.7 minutes a night. Possibly due to the slower pace of these games, he has also experienced a decrease in his per-minute production, as it’s fallen to 0.63 from 0.80 FD ppm. Still, his workload is secure and he’s a potential way to save money at the position considering Lowry’s risk and salary.

Greg Monroe seems like the only person who’s increased his fantasy production on the Bucks. His usage rate is up 3.6% and he’s set an average pace of 1.20 FD ppm, 0.11 above his average. Unfortunately, he’s limited to 23.5 minutes per game. Despite this, he’s still the second on the team in scoring (14.6) and rebounding (7.4). He appears to have a higher ceiling than Valanciunas, who’s in a similar situation, although he struggled on the glass in Game 5, only hauling in two boards on his way to 14.4 FD points. The floor is certainly low for guys getting this type of playing time. He’s going to keep getting the same workload as he splits time with starter Thon Maker. The rookie has remained pretty steady in terms of average usage and per-minute production and he’s been relatively consistent; he’s finished between 14.6-19.6 FD points in all five games. It doesn’t seem like his ceiling is much higher than that given his current role on the team.

Fellow starter Tony Snell is a scoring dependent player. He’s a potential option tonight due to the two-game slate, but he isn’t particularly exciting as he’s averaged 0.53 FD ppm on a 13.4% usage rate this postseason. On the bench, Michael Beasley was looking like an interesting tournament play with his low salary, but he was benched in Game 5 and he may not be worth the risk as it’s possible Mirza Teletovic rejoins the rotation at Beasley’s expense. Teletovic isn’t a strong play as he averaged 0.65 FD ppm during the season whereas Beasley returned 0.96 and had some upside. Also, Teletovic has been struggling, he’s averaging 0.28 FD ppm this postseason and he’ll likely earn around 12 or fewer minutes tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,400 $5,000 0.79 26.4 -2.1 21.0 -2.6 20.5% -0.3% 11 0.62
Tony Snell $4,000 $4,000 0.52 29.2 -1.2 15.1 -1.3 12.0% 0.5% 3 -2.21
Khris Middleton $6,900 $6,300 0.84 30.7 0.9 25.8 -3.8 23.0% -3.1% 3 -1.29
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,800 $10,300 1.28 35.6 -1.5 45.7 -6.6 29.2% -1.3% 5 1.09
Thon Maker $3,900 $3,800 0.82 9.9 9.2 8.1 6.2 16.9% -2.4% 10 0.84
Greg Monroe $6,500 $5,700 1.09 22.5 -2.6 24.6 -4.3 24.1% 3.9% 10 N/A
Matthew Dellavedova $3,400 $2,800 0.63 26.1 -2.8 16.5 -3.7 19.4% 1.7% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon, Greg Monroe, Thon Maker, Tony Snell

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies – 9:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies
Article Image Vegas Total 190.0 Article Image Vegas Total 190.0
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 97.0 Team Total 93.0
Pace +/- -4.0 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge David Lee Proj. Starter Mike Conley Vince Carter James Ennis Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 6 10 6 3 1 Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2
DRPM -0.50 0.23 1.40 -1.06 0.84 DRPM -0.79 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.36

San Antonio Spurs

Kawhi Leonard remained efficient in Game 5, scoring 28 points on 16 shots. He didn’t do too much else outside of six assists. So far this series, he’s averaged 31.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists in 37.2 minutes per game. He’s commanded a 33.9% usage rate and he’ll continue to be the leader of this ball club. He may not have the ceiling of Antetokounmpo due to his peripherals, but the Spurs will keep leaning on him to score.

One of the most interesting story lines on this team has been the play of Tony Parker. He now boasts a usage rate of 30.5% in the postseason, 8.0% above his season average, and he’s raised his per-minute production 0.06 DK ppm to 0.85. After putting up a dud in Game 3, he’s played 30+ minutes in each of the past two games, and returned scores of 35.5 and 28.5 DK points. He’s right around the same price as Malcolm Brogdon, but he may be the better option – and it’s possible he comes with lower ownership. He’s now put up four games with at least 15 actual points in this series, and he’s contributed at least five assists in two of them. It appears that he could keep getting the same type of run going forward and he’s managed to find success in a slow-paced matchup with the Grizzlies.

As Parker’s usage has increased, LaMarcus Aldrige’s has dropped 5.0% to 21.6% and his per-minute production is way down; it’s fallen 0.26 DK ppm to 0.74. As mentioned the last time the Spurs played, Aldridge doesn’t create his own shots a lot – 59% of his field goals are assisted – and the Spurs had veered away from solid team basketball complete with efficient passing, which was causing Aldridge’s FGAs to drop. Last game, they turned in 23 assists as a team and Aldridge was able to get off 13 shots. He wasn’t very efficient though, as he only scored 12. It also isn’t a great number of FGAs considering he averaged 14.6 during the regular season. Instead of Aldridge leading the way with Leonard, Parker stepped up and Patty Mills picked up 20 points off the bench. It’s only the second game Mills has been in the double digits, but he’s taken seven or more shots in four games this postseason. While he’s normally stuck in the low-20s minute-wise, he could potentially become in play on the two-game slate. His usage is up 1.3% to 21.7% and he’s not terribly priced on DraftKings. He was 7-of-10 in Game 5 though, so it’ll be hard for him to repeat his performance, especially if Aldridge wakes up and starts being making more of an impact on offense. With only three power forwards on the slate above $3.6k on FanDuel, he’s one of the best options available. We should see his scoring trend upwards as he’s shooting fine (46.6%), he just needs more opportunities, and he’s leading the team in rebounding with 6.4 per game.

David Lee has started two games in a row and it looks like he could get the nod again tonight. He was great last time out, scoring 11 points on six shots while adding eight rebounds in 26 minutes. He still has a very nice price and he’ll surely be a popular value play. During the season, he averaged 0.86 DK ppm when on the court with Kawhi and LaMarcus.

Even when Dewayne Dedmon was out, Pau Gasol didn’t pick up any extra work. In fact, it declined to 21 minutes and then 16 in Game 5. It seems like coach Gregg Popovich likes what he’s getting out of Lee in this matchup and even Davis Bertans got in for 14 minutes last time out. It’s not looking like a great time to target Pau.

We saw Manu Ginobili score his first points of the series in the fifth game. Although he’s a good bet for 15-20 minutes every night, he’s struggled to score so far. He’s cheap enough to warrant consideration on this slate though as he’s still managed 0.73 DK ppm in this series, primarily through peripherals alone. He’s actually doing better than starter Danny Green, who’s turned in 0.56 DK ppm on a 13.8% usage rate. Green’s minutes have slipped as well and he’s now looking at the low-20s; he played 22 in Game 5 after receiving 26 in Game 4.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $5,000 $4,900 0.74 25.2 -5.1 18.6 -2.4 23.1% 2.5% 6 -0.50
Danny Green $4,000 $3,500 0.62 26.6 -6.7 16.5 -1.7 13.8% 0.7% 10 0.23
Kawhi Leonard $10,200 $9,700 1.22 33.4 -8.6 40.6 -13.7 30.9% -1.6% 6 1.40
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,900 $6,400 0.96 32.4 -6.3 31.1 -7.3 24.0% -0.7% 3 -1.06
David Lee $3,400 $4,300 0.92 18.7 3.2 17.2 1.3 17.3% 1.5% 1 0.84
Patty Mills $4,200 $3,700 0.79 21.9 -3.0 17.2 -6.4 21.8% -0.8% 6 N/A
Pau Gasol $5,100 $4,600 1.06 25.4 -3.9 26.9 -2.4 21.5% 4.2% 1 N/A
Manu Ginobili $2,900 $3,300 0.84 18.7 -0.5 15.7 -6.6 22.0% -1.2% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – David Lee, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Patty Mills

Memphis Grizzlies

Another night, another great performance from Mike Conley. It’s been great to see him play at such a level on this stage. In Game 5 he posted 36 points, six assists, and four steals. He’s leading the team in this series with 24.4 points and 7.4 assists, and he’s raised his assist rate from 34.3% all the way to 43.8%. Simply put, the offense is running through him, and he should continue to put up nice stat lines.

Neither Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph have turned in big games since the latter joined the starting lineup, as they compete with each other for shots and boards. Over these past two games, Gasol’s usage has dropped to 21.6%, a 6.8% decrease from his normal rate, and Randolph’s has slipped to 23.4%, a drop of 6.7%. At the same time, Conley’s is up 4.8% to 33.0%, which is another negative impact on their production. They’re both top options at their position on this slate, but someone like Ibaka is pretty interesting with the way Randolph has been impacted by his new role. Aldridge too, as Randolph has returned similar numbers, 0.78 DK ppm, but Aldridge usually plays more minutes.

Outside of those three, we have several dart throws that are in play tonight: Vince Carter and James Ennis round out the starting lineup and both should receive minutes in the low 30s, and JaMychal Green and Andrew Harrison have shown signs of life off the bench recently. In terms of per-minute production, Harrison has been the best of the bunch at 0.70 DK ppm. He’s been playing well enough to earn a larger workload, and he got on the floor for 23 minutes in Game 5. He turned his opportunity into nine points and a pair of rebounds. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but he’s produced between 14-18.5 DK points over the past three games. Green has earned 24+ minutes for three consecutive games and he’s returned at least 15.5 DK points in each; he’s averaging 11.0 points in that stretch. Carter has put together back-to-back games with double-digit points and he’ll get the most time on the court outside of the big three. He can still do it in his old age and he’s averaged 4.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists over the past two contests. James Ennis has the highest usage among these four players at 21.2%, but he’s been inconsistent; he’s produced the fewest fantasy points per minute (0.52 DK ppm). He played well last time out though, scoring 11 points, grabbing four rebounds, and contributing two assists. Overall, Carter appears to be the best option, but he’ll come with higher ownership, so taking a shot on one of the others may be beneficial in a tournament. They aren’t exciting, but this slate is rough.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $8,700 $8,600 1.06 33.2 -6.4 35.1 -5.7 29.7% 2.7% 8 -0.79
Vince Carter $3,700 $4,100 0.66 24.7 0.2 16.3 -2.2 15.5% -2.1% 12 2.10
James Ennis $3,300 $3,700 0.60 23.4 -5.2 14.1 -3.5 13.0% -3.0% 2 0.85
Zach Randolph $6,300 $6,600 1.07 24.5 -0.5 26.3 0.1 28.7% 3.3% 2 1.25
Marc Gasol $7,800 $7,200 1.06 34.2 -5.0 36.2 -2.9 27.9% -0.4% 2 1.36
Jamychal Green $3,300 $3,600 0.73 27.3 -5.9 19.9 -8.2 14.4% -0.2% 2 N/A
Andrew Harrison $2,800 $3,100 0.64 20.5 3.6 13.2 2.5 19.4% -2.5% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph

Secondary Plays – Vince Carter, JaMychal Green, Andrew Harrison, James Ennis

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).